I’ve been following the BDC sector from the sidelines for a while now. Currently, my portfolio only holds a small slice of Barings BDC, which I picked up during a dip a few years ago. I recently got rid of my last mREIT, so now there’s a spot open in my portfolio for a cash flow generator, and what better for this job than a BDC with a nice dividend.
However, my understanding of the deeper inner workings of these companies is still a bit thin, so I’ve been trying to dig through the options and guess where to put my money. A few companies consistently stand out, so the following firms have ended up as subjects for closer examination:
MAIN - Extremely expensive; even after the recent dip, P/NAV is almost 2x. It has paid out special dividends quite generously for many years, but the regular dividend is still quite a bit smaller than the sector average. On the other hand, the payout ratio is also significantly lower than its peers. Currently on the watchlist; if the price drops to numbers starting with four, the temptation to buy this increases significantly.
ARCC - In my opinion, another quality firm, with similar thoughts as with MAIN.
Then, the juiciest deals in my eyes:
Hercules Capital (HTGC) - The price has come down 13% in the last month, apparently due to the issuance of convertible bonds to the market, and as a result, the dividend is at a rather impressive 11.5% level. Last year, however, seems to have gone well; the payout ratio is at a healthy/low level compared to the sector, and additional dividends have already been promised for every quarter this year. On the downside, Hercules seems to be focused on “venture-lending” type activities, so this adds extra risk.
Blue Owl (OBDC) - Another +11% dividend monster, with a significantly larger portfolio than Hercules, though growth is a small question mark. The payout ratio is relatively low, and the company has not only been able to grow its regular dividend in recent years but also pay additional dividends on top of it. This would be the most interesting target for me right now, at least.
What are others’ thoughts, is there anything I’m not taking into account here? The most concerning thing about this whole endeavor, of course, is the antics of the Orange Man and whether he will manage to drive the entire US into a recession. On the other hand, the same fear is generally gnawing at the investment markets, but my gut feeling is that BDCs are, on average, in a much worse position if the economy goes south.