The best time to jump in was undoubtedly before the dividend announcement. I exited the company today at a loss because I no longer consider it suitable for my investment portfolio, and because I believe I can destroy my portfolio faster elsewhere.
Below, however, are some thoughts on the current situation. I would emphasize, however, that I do not recommend getting involved in this until you feel you have a clear understanding of the company’s situation.
The company currently has 4.6 billion NOK in cash, which amounts to 7.6 NOK/share. The share price is currently 7.4 NOK, meaning the company is valued slightly below its cash reserves. The company promised yesterday to distribute 5.8 NOK/share from its cash to its owners.
In addition to its cash, the company also has some value because it still co-owns 20% of the joint venture with SLB, which SLB can either decide to buy or ACC can sell to SLB for at least 1.03 billion NOK, but the price could also be higher based on the current market value. ACC also has the possibility of a 1.36 billion NOK performance-based bonus by 2027 at the latest.
I don’t have a link, but I read somewhere today that Pareto estimated the current total value to be 8.8 NOK, which sounds reasonable. Based on this and what was mentioned above, the current price does not seem to fully reflect the total value, but for various reasons, the situation has been the same since the establishment of the joint venture. The markets do not price the company at its theoretical value and seem to value future cash flows with a significant risk factor. Therefore, there is no guarantee that the value will be realized better in the future than what has been seen today.
Edit. Mikko wrote in the blog you linked today that he even bought more, so apparently he at least believes the value will still be realized favorably for the owner. If I had to choose between the two of us, I would believe him.