My simple Addvise investment theses are:
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The company’s new management has assured that cash flow and EBITA% are the top priorities.
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New acquisitions will be made disciplinedly, and Addvise’s debt situation will be carefully considered.
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The full exercise of warrants related to the rights issue would bring the company an additional 114-172 MSEK in Q1/2026 (dilution is 14.3%). After this, there should be NO further need for new directed issues or rights issues.
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Thanks to point 3) and improved cash flow, the net debt/EBITDA ratio will have fallen below 3.0 by the end of Q1/26. This is the company’s target level.
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The additional purchase prices for previous oversized acquisitions will have been almost entirely paid by the end of 2026. The cash flow profile will significantly improve as a result.
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Good comparables for Addvise can be found on the Swedish stock exchange: Addlife and Asker. Addvise’s key figures are favorable compared to them, and Addvise is valued at lower multiples. The reasons lie in Addvise’s history and are self-inflicted. However, the management has now been changed, and the main owners include Life Science experts. Many of them have significant shareholdings in Addvise.
With the spring refinancing, interest expenses/year are approximately 75 MSEK. The adjusted 12-month (LTM) P/E ratio is approximately 7. The EBITA margin is approximately 17%, meaning approximately 270 MSEK EBITA (non-IFRS).
If, thanks to the new management, confidence in the company returns and Addvise proceeds according to plan, then the multiples could rise closer to its comparables. In this case, Addvise will be a multi-bagger in the coming years.
The CEO summarized in the Q3 webcast that future acquisitions will be made thoughtfully: “No rush; it must be the right fit.” If it turns out that this principle is deviated from, I will be the first to sell my shares.