It’s worth opening a dedicated thread for WISA Group, as the company will soon start trading as an independent listed company.
Partial demergers, which have become more common on the Helsinki Stock Exchange, will continue as WISA (formerly UPM Plywood), focusing on the plywood business, separates from UPM-Kymmene into its own independent listed company. The implementation of the demerger is expected to take place on the last day of October, and trading in WISA’s shares is estimated to begin on November 2, 2026. The share exchange will be executed at a 1:1 ratio, meaning each UPM-Kymmene share entitles the holder to one WISA share. The shares will be transferred to owners’ book-entry accounts automatically, and the demerger does not require any separate actions from shareholders.
The company hosted a Capital Markets Day on Wednesday, which I attended. I wrote an article about the company for Salkunrakentaja.
Forest sector play: UPM spin-off WISA brings fresh color to the stock exchange
A steady profit-maker, WISA focuses on premium plywood in the fragmented European market.
Europe’s second-largest plywood manufacturer
Return on capital and cash flow in good shape
Wide guidance range for this year’s earnings
Plywood is used in various industrial sectors
A potential end to the war in Ukraine would alter the competitive landscape
[quote="PorssiPatruuna, post:4330, topic:725"]\n5. Special situation: UPM’s major owners might trigger a large wave of selling for Wisa’s stock in November, and at what price would it be considered a bargain? Should we start scooping it up around 70-80 cents?\n[/quote]\n\nJust speculating for Friday evening entertainment.\n\nIt is predicted to largely be a so-called “unsexy” dividend company, which makes the minimum dividend requirement relatively high, i.e., at least 5%.\n\nAnnounced earnings guidance for 2026 = 32 - 50 mil.\nIf the 2026 earnings = 40 mil, the dividend will be = €0.037.\nAt a price of €0.70, the dividend yield = 5.3%.\nThus, €0.70 would be pretty much a fair median price without high growth expectations.\n\n€0.60 would be on the cheap side, as the dividend yield would rise to 6.1%.\nAt a price of €0.80, the dividend yield would be 4.6%.\n\nConclusion:\n €0.80 = Sell.\n €0.70 = Hold.\n €0.60 = Buy.\n\nOf course, if earnings come in closer to the upper end of the forecast (50 mil), the fair price will rise correspondingly, and also if one believes the company’s growth will accelerate from the current level.
You have estimated WISA’s market pricing at a slightly lower level than I have (from November 2, 2026 onwards, the share price would be just under a euro, and around 70-80 cents is where one should start tinkering with the buy button). In my own back-of-the-envelope calculations, I estimated that WISA would progress according to its targets and be able to leverage its earnings operating leverage, which largely explains the differences in our pricing. On November 2, 2026, around WISA’s listing, UMP’s major investors and index funds might sell WISA heavily, causing the price to drop quite low, at least temporarily. We’ll see how it goes.
P.S. @Tomi_Lindell excellently opened a dedicated thread for WISA. Should @Sijoittaja-alokas move these discussions from this pulp-love thread over there?
For quite a few retail investors, Visa is going to be a miniscule holding in their portfolio once they appear there. Thanks for the insights regarding the price. Holding is an easy choice. Buying is so difficult that one could first make this a real investment by buying from the ask side and hoping to get to add more at a lower price a few times. This is of course the Visa thread, but somehow next week UPM’s valuation will also take a swing.
Looking at this image’s “scenario analysis”, I really have to say, I hope it was a joke. Aside from the first one, the scenarios were completely off the wall. Sometimes it’s downright terrifying how thinking is being outsourced to AI.