The offer period was extended today until October 31; regulatory approvals have not yet been received from the EU. This was indeed anticipated in the original schedule estimate, as closing was expected during Q4, which still holds true.
Today’s real news was that, according to the release, GF already owns ~9.5% of Uponor’s share capital. This explains why the share price doesn’t seem to drop below the offer price; GF is providing support in the market.
Someone else besides GF also seems to be accumulating this, as larger blocks like the one in today’s closing auction occasionally move at prices above the offer price.
I’m sticking to my previous prediction that Aliaxis’s shares will be transferred to GF, and in that context, the offer price will be moderately raised. With this, GF will then reach +90% ownership and can proceed with the squeeze-out. This will likely only happen once all regulatory approvals are finalized and the deal can be fully completed. Until then, it’s probably worth holding on to your shares, even though you can already get slightly more than the current offer price on the market.
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Why does the Nordnet portfolio still say that the response period ends on 1.9?
Amateur speculation.. are there any antitrust requirements that could cause the entire offer to be cancelled? Or use them as a reason to withdraw? I don’t know how construction is developing in Uponor’s other markets, but the Scandinavian region is likely to be quite weak in the coming years?
GF’s offer has received its final seal of approval; the competition authorities did not impose any conditions on the deal.
Now we’re just waiting to see what Aliaxis does with its shares now that there are no longer any uncertainties regarding the completion of GF’s offer. GF wants to buy them, and it’s unlikely Aliaxis wants to leave such a minority stake hanging on its balance sheet. It will be interesting to see if they can agree on a price. Fortunately, we won’t have to wait much longer, as GF’s offer is set to go through as it stands at the beginning of November.
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So, is this it then: no hike in the offer price expected?
Yes, exactly.
I’m a bit surprised; from the outside, Aliaxis seemed to be in a quite good position to squeeze the price higher. Perhaps GF was truly prepared to play the long game, i.e., leaving Aliaxis as a minority shareholder. Well, you can’t always get these right 
It looks like this thread has been quiet for a couple of months, so let’s wake it up a bit. The share price has already dropped nearly 3 percent in a month, and today’s closing price was 1.82% below the tender offer price of 28.50 euros. Trading volumes have been relatively low, except for some trades of a few thousand shares just before the close over the last few days. I’m guessing GF is the buyer. It seems the return doesn’t really appeal to people, even though, according to my understanding, interest started accruing in early December (7.0% for 2023 and 7.5% starting January 1st). It could also be that a large portion of retail investors are unaware of this interest component.
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Which interest rate are you talking about and where does it say that?
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In accordance with the Limited Liability Companies Act, interest is paid in redemption procedures.
Annual interest must be paid on the redemption price from the time three weeks have elapsed since the application for arbitrators, in accordance with the reference rate in effect at the time as referred to in Section 12 of the Interest Act, increased by three percentage points. (29.12.2022/1337)
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How long do I have to wait for the money from a redemption?
Based on my own experience, it’s typically 7–9 months from the start of the redemption process. But of course, in theory, it can sometimes drag on for a very long time, even years, if there is something to dispute, as was the case with Ahlström-Munksjö. In Uponor’s case, everything should be quite clear-cut, so I expect it to stay within that 7–9 month range, of which about 1.5 months has already passed.
You should be prepared for anything. There was a tender offer for Ahlstrom-Munksjö in 2020, and the current estimate is that the redemption proceeds will hit the account in 2025. I can’t think of a wait longer than these four years.
I don’t suppose the delay is much of a catastrophe, as long as the interest keeps accruing.
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It’s taken a surprisingly long time to appoint the arbitral tribunal. It will soon be two months since the trustee was appointed, and at least on the website of the Redemption Board of the Chamber of Commerce, no decision has been recorded regarding the appointment of the arbitral tribunal.
I’ve been involved in a few squeeze-outs myself, and the interval between the appointment of the special representative and the appointment of the arbitral tribunal has lasted 1 month and 2 days at its shortest (Nixu) and exactly 2 months at its longest (Avidly). Next week will indeed mark the 2-month point; let’s see if a new record is set.
The Redemption Board’s website lists 30 January 2024 as the decision date.
Does the interest start accruing automatically, or do shareholders need to respond in writing in any way?
Does anyone have any information on what the situation is with this? At what point is trading usually halted?