Avaan uuden ketjun keskustelulle UB Pohjoismaiset Liikekiinteistöt -rahaston ympärille. Kuluneella viikolla avasimme rahastolle rahastosivun, joka kokoaa vastedes yhteen kvartaalikatsauksia ja muita rahastoon liittyviä sisältöjä, mukaan lukien inderesTV:n säännölliset haastattelut, joista ensimmäinen kuvattiin muutama päivä sitten. Tässä kohtaa on hyvä todeta, että UB Rahastoyhtiö on Inderesin asiakas.
Jatkossa tarkoituksena on kerätä myös täältä kysymyksiä ja ideoita haastatteluihin. Olen kannustanut myös UB:n salkunhoitajia jalkautumaan Foorumille osallistumaan keskusteluun. Omasta puolestani mikään ei estä puimasta myös yleisellä tasolla tässä ketjussa Pohjoismaiden kiinteistömarkkinoita liippaavia kysymyksiä.
Salkunhoitajat kävivät haastattelussa. Sopivaa kuunneltavaa varmasti myös kiinteistösektorista yleisesti kiinnostuneille.
Aiheet kellotettuna
00:00 Aloitus
00:25 Ruotsin asuntomarkkinoiden tyrsky
02:40 Ulkomaiset sijoittajat pitävät kiinni Pohjoismaista
04:20 Pohjoismaissa kiinteistöltä vaaditaan enemmän tuottoa
06:00 Kiinteistökohteiden uudelleenhinnoittelu
08:58 Uutta tietoa saadaan alati lisää
10:27 Inflaation merkitys
13:48 Uusi sijoitus Oslossa
16:53 Käteinen on kuningas
UB:n salkunhoidolta ilmestyi tammi-maaliskuun kvartaalikatsaus. Kiinnostavaa luettavaa myös yleisesti kiinteistömarkkinoista kiinnostuneelle. Kauppaa tehdään merkittävästi vähemmän kuin aiemmin, mutta aivan kohmeessa markkina ei ole.
Moni kiinteistösijoittaja tuntuu käyttävän kaupankäynnistä vapautuneen ajan nykyisten kiinteistöomistusten parantamiseen ja optimointiin. - - Näin ollen monet kiinteistöt tulevat olemaan entistä paremmassa kunnossa markkinan kääntyessä.
Inflaatio on osoittanut ensimmäisiä merkkejä taittumisesta, mikä voisi tarkoittaa koronnostojen loppumista lähitulevaisuudessa. - - koronnostojen loppuminen ja viimeistään korkojen lasku tulee palauttamaan aktiviteetin kiinteistömarkkinaan.
Monella sijoittajalla vaikuttaa olevan edelleen hyvin käteistä käytettäväksi heti, kun talousnäkymät hieman selkenevät. Hyvänä esimerkkinä mainittakoon Blackstone, joka ilmoitti huhtikuussa keränneensä uuteen kiinteistörahastoonsa ennätykselliset 30 miljardia dollaria. Isoilla sijoittajilla näyttää siis löytyvän uskoa kiinteistömarkkinan elpymiseen lähitulevaisuudessa.
Tässä salkunhoitajien uusin haastattelu. Puhuttiin aluksi markkinatilanteesta ja sitten mm. siitä, miksi listattu ja listaamaton kiinteistömarkkina vaikuttavan elävän aivan eri elämää.
UB’s portfolio managers will be interviewed on inderesTV in the coming days. Here are some initial insights from them regarding the situation and market outlook for the real estate sector.
The first signs of a recovery in the real estate investment market have already been seen in the listed real estate market, which appears to have reached its bottom in October 2023. Historically, direct real estate investments have followed the listed real estate market with a lag of approximately 6–12 months.
Here is the promised interview. It is definitely worth a listen for everyone interested in the situation of property managers and the real estate sector in general.
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:16 The year 2023
01:30 “Secondary offices suffer the most”
02:24 Turnaround in the listed market
03:23 Interest rates as the catalyst for the turnaround
05:38 Yield requirements and value declines
08:57 Market stress and redemptions
10:55 Yield gap and real interest rates
12:25 Differences in fund returns
14:12 The mechanics of return calculation
20:03 The significance of Norway
22:11 How has the “new normal” changed real estate investing?
Here is a fresh review from UB’s Jaakko Onali and Mikko Hentinen.
In the previous quarterly report, we wrote that the real estate market’s transaction volume seems to have stabilized at 4–5 billion euros per quarter in the Nordics. Many surely hoped that the real estate market would see a “Santa Claus rally” toward the end of the year, and although there was a small final spurt, the 2023 transaction volume in the Nordics remained just under 20 billion euros as predicted. It was the quietest year since the financial crisis.
Newsec’s Spring 2024 Finnish property market report was published earlier this week. It can be downloaded täältä. Downloading requires providing contact information. If you do not wish to do so, I can send it via email if necessary.
Although the report focuses on Finland, the drivers are practically the same regardless of the country: inflation, interest rates/monetary policy, a sluggish economic situation, and general uncertainty. What did I forget to list?
The real estate market is expected to normalize and turbulence to decrease towards the end of the year, as long as inflation falls and interest rates follow: “The biggest risk in the current scenario is that inflation refuses to drop the ‘last mile’. This may be due to new supply disruptions caused by geopolitical disturbances. Inflation may also refuse to fall because economic growth is stronger than expected and wage increases are larger than anticipated.”
According to Newsec, there are more potential buyers in the market than before. However, the willingness to buy does not guarantee an increase in transaction activity. Everyone is waiting for interest rates to drop.
On the other hand: “Although prime yield requirements have risen by 70–170 basis points during the current cycle, the rise is still smaller than the 320 basis point rise in the Finnish government bond yield” – “due to uncertainties in the real estate market, it is unclear whether the current narrowed risk premium is sufficient to revitalize the market.”
A few useful graphs picked from the report. The report has separate sections for each property class (residential, offices, industrial and logistics, retail, social infrastructure, hotels).
Here is an interesting piece by UB’s Jaakko Onali and Mikko Hentinen.
In the Q4/2023 quarterly report published at the beginning of the year, we wrote that property values would likely find a new equilibrium during the current year. Looking at the changes in our property values in the first quarter of the year, we notice that the largest decreases in value appear to be behind us for now. Property appraisers will hopefully gain more evidence of property values from transactions during the current year, so smaller adjustments to property values will certainly still be made based on realized transactions.
UB portfolio managers Jaakko Onali and Mikko Hentinen were interviewed by @Antti_Jarvenpaa.
Topics:
00:00 Introduction
00:22 Market situation
05:50 It’s not all about interest rates
11:25 Problems are concentrated in offices
15:19 Capital allocation focuses on reallocation
19:52 Property development is more emphasized than before
23:37 Value changes remain moderate
27:27 Outlook for the rest of the year
Below is a fund review from UB portfolio managers Jaakko Onali and Mikko Hentinen.
In the fund’s previous quarterly reviews and materials, we have shown a chart from international consulting firms suggesting that a turnaround in the direct real estate market would occur during the current summer. The first interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) in June is likely to facilitate the valuation of real estate and thus the forecasting of returns. Going forward, the impact of rate cuts on real estate values may already be cautiously positive. Due to slow transaction processes, effects in the real estate market manifest slowly, so we will likely have more clarity in this regard only in the autumn.
UB’s portfolio manager Jaakko Onali was interviewed by Antti.
Topics:
00:00 Intro
01:34 Transaction activity picking up
02:36 Sweden leads the way, Finland follows
03:25 Market drivers and most popular asset classes
06:35 Office market challenges centered in Finland
08:18 “Best buying opportunities of the decade”
14:05 Is sustainability greenwashing?
17:12 Real estate development
19:02 Strategically important real estate locations
21:42 Room for improvement in occupancy rates
23:45 Redemptions and net subscriptions
Antti’s guest was UB’s portfolio manager Jaakko Onali.
The decisions of several housing and real estate funds to suspend redemptions of fund units have generated a lot of discussion in the market early this year. What has led to this situation? UB’s portfolio manager Jaakko Onali explains the situation of real estate funds and the market.
Topics:
00:00 Introduction
00:40 “Liquidity is really weak”
04:40 Problems are concentrated in Finland
05:37 Housing market
06:45 Why don’t unit holders get their money?
09:46 Are open-ended real estate funds truly “liquid”?
11:53 Who defines the interests of unit holders?
12:35 Could redemptions be financed with debt?
14:39 What kind of cash allocations are typical for real estate funds?
16:03 Why aren’t properties forced to be sold, and what would be the consequences?
19:27 Real estate valuation and the principal-agent problem (conflict of interest)
22:30 How to monitor and evaluate the real estate market and funds?
24:03 Situation of the UB Nordic Commercial Properties fund
26:08 Market situation in the Nordics by country
28:30 Why has the cooling of the construction market not supported the existing property stock?
30:35 Long-term interest rates, inflation, and real interest rate
32:40 Expectations for 2025
