In this thread, warnings in both directions and also guesses as to which company will issue a profit warning and in which direction.
I expect forest companies to issue a warning, or at least lower their current year’s guidance in connection with Q1.
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Vaikka kiinalaiset valittavat nyt “täysine varastoineen” sellun hinnasta niin maailmanmarkkinahinta on se mikä lopulta tämänkin ratkaasoo…
Siihen aasinsiltana liittyen laitettakoon myös, jotta ns. “komponenttipulaan” ei ainakaan Lundmarks-Nokia sorru, ainakaan aikaan vähään:
https://etn.fi/index.php/opinion-2/13-news/14573-mikae-ihmeen-komponenttipula
Metsä Board ja Storaenso varoitti jo. Ei kahta ilman kolmatta?
Yleisesti uskon että yhteisöä palvelisi jos joku aina postailisi heti tiedon tultua vaikka tähän ketjuun varoitukset kun niitä sattuu tulemaan.
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Luulen, että porukka kun seuraa yhtiöketjua, niin varoitukset napsahtaa samantien sinne kun ne julkaistaa. Itseäni ei juuri kiinnosta muiden kuin salkkuyhtiöiden varoitukset.
Ei ole tullut luettua 2023 tulosohjeistuksia, mutta lahden toiselta puolelta ei ole vielä kajahtanut. Ja siellähän tämä ala on vielä laajemmin edustettuna:
Holmen
SCA
Arctic Paper
Billerud
Rottneros
Holmen ei ole kovin tuttu itselle. SCA ja Rottneros ovat pitkälti sellutehtailijoita - Rottneros yksinomaan. Billerud pääasiassa tekee pakkauksia, pakkauspapereita yms. Arctic omistaa enemmistön Rottnerosista ja valmistaa niche-papereita, mm. kirjapaperit. Ruotsalaisia tukee kyllä kruunun heikko kurssi, mutta tuskin tullaan heidänkään vuosineljänneskatsauksissa taivaanrantoja maalailemaan. Mielenkiintoiset viikot edessä.
Edit. Periaatteessa myös Essityn voisi laskea tähän porukkaan, vaikka ovatkin pehmofirma. Pehmoilla on pyyhkinyt harvinaisen huonosti, kun jengillä on vieläkin koronan aikana hamstrattua vessapaperia kaapit täynnä…
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Vastaan itselleni ja korjaan näkemystäni Essityn osalta. Markkina tuntuu hinnoittelevan tuloksen piristymistä, ja koska oma asiantuntemus pehmoista on huono, uskon markkinan olevan tässä oikeassa.
Aspocomp.
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I have been listing OMX companies (plus a few wildcards) from this year as negative profit warnings have been issued. The number is quite significant. The list likely contains errors and omissions, and certainly companies that have already changed their earnings guidance multiple times. Some of the profit warnings are also open to interpretation and/or companies might belong on both lists.
Negatives:
There are also a few positives, and some of those are also open to interpretation, or the outlook has already been changed, or they were originally placed on the wrong list. I haven’t actually checked the lists after adding them, except for those that are in my own portfolio or that I follow more closely. Feel free to correct them if you notice any omissions.
Positives:
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The most interesting summary, in my opinion, would be one showing the share price performance as a percentage from the warning date to today. Of course, it requires a bit of work. Quite often, there are cases where the price dropped quickly, but may have also risen quite a bit since then.
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This is definitely the most critical earnings season for the future, including on the OMXH. If earnings decline and forecasts are lowered, it is already quite certain at this stage that Q4 will also be weak, even though it is traditionally one of the strongest quarters. This also provides an indication for H1/24.
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Let’s put this forecast here.
https://x.com/juhavaris/status/1719363777856938066?s=61&t=bj9YixgsXKjspQshjbvZIA
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This year, and especially now during the summer, a number of profit warnings have once again been issued, most recently today by Incap and Glaston. The attached list is my own monitoring list of companies that have issued warnings, and it may be incomplete.
There have also been a few positive warnings of varying degrees, with GRK Infra, Raute, Enersense, HKFoods, Springvest, and Tekova having announced slightly better outlooks.
Nightingale’s warning was also negative regarding the adjusted EBITDA for the fiscal year, but sales and revenue remained in growth. Pihlajalinna mainly clarified its guidance, and Wetteri withdrew its guidance.
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