In this thread, warnings in both directions and also guesses as to which company will issue a profit warning and in which direction.
I expect forest companies to issue a warning, or at least lower their current year’s guidance in connection with Q1.
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Even though the Chinese are now complaining about pulp prices with their “full inventories,” the global market price is what will ultimately decide this…
As a segue to that, it should also be noted that Lundmark’s Nokia won’t be succumbing to the so-called “component shortage,” at least not for quite some time:
Metsä Board and Stora Enso have already issued warnings. No two without a third?
Generally, I believe it would serve the community if someone would always post the warnings to this thread as soon as the information comes out, whenever they happen to occur.
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I think that when people follow a company thread, warnings pop up there immediately as soon as they are published. Personally, I’m not really interested in warnings from companies other than those in my portfolio.
I haven’t read the 2023 earnings guidances yet, but there hasn’t been any news from across the bay (Sweden) yet. And that’s where this industry is even more broadly represented:
Holmen
SCA
Arctic Paper
Billerud
Rottneros
Holmen isn’t very familiar to me. SCA and Rottneros are largely pulp producers—Rottneros exclusively so. Billerud mainly produces packaging, packaging papers, etc. Arctic owns a majority of Rottneros and manufactures niche papers, such as book papers. The Swedes are certainly supported by the weak exchange rate of the krona, but they aren’t likely to be painting rosy pictures in their quarterly reports either. Interesting weeks ahead.
Edit. In principle, Essity could also be included in this group, even though they are a tissue company. Tissue companies have had an exceptionally rough time, as people still have their cupboards full of toilet paper hoarded during COVID…
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I’m replying to myself and revising my view on Essity. The market seems to be pricing in an earnings recovery, and since my own expertise in tissues is poor, I believe the market is right on this.
Aspocomp.
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I have been listing OMX companies (plus a few wildcards) from this year as negative profit warnings have been issued. The number is quite significant. The list likely contains errors and omissions, and certainly companies that have already changed their earnings guidance multiple times. Some of the profit warnings are also open to interpretation and/or companies might belong on both lists.
Negatives:
There are also a few positives, and some of those are also open to interpretation, or the outlook has already been changed, or they were originally placed on the wrong list. I haven’t actually checked the lists after adding them, except for those that are in my own portfolio or that I follow more closely. Feel free to correct them if you notice any omissions.
Positives:
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The most interesting summary, in my opinion, would be one showing the share price performance as a percentage from the warning date to today. Of course, it requires a bit of work. Quite often, there are cases where the price dropped quickly, but may have also risen quite a bit since then.
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This is definitely the most critical earnings season for the future, including on the OMXH. If earnings decline and forecasts are lowered, it is already quite certain at this stage that Q4 will also be weak, even though it is traditionally one of the strongest quarters. This also provides an indication for H1/24.
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Let’s put this forecast here.
https://x.com/juhavaris/status/1719363777856938066?s=61&t=bj9YixgsXKjspQshjbvZIA
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This year, and especially now during the summer, a number of profit warnings have once again been issued, most recently today by Incap and Glaston. The attached list is my own monitoring list of companies that have issued warnings, and it may be incomplete.
There have also been a few positive warnings of varying degrees, with GRK Infra, Raute, Enersense, HKFoods, Springvest, and Tekova having announced slightly better outlooks.
Nightingale’s warning was also negative regarding the adjusted EBITDA for the fiscal year, but sales and revenue remained in growth. Pihlajalinna mainly clarified its guidance, and Wetteri withdrew its guidance.
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