I’ll post this here too; it falls into the China regulation wave sector. Feel free to move it if I’m in the wrong place.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-03/beijing-s-city-government-seeks-to-take-didi-under-state-control
Beijing city is rumored to be buying a stake in Didi.
Honestly, I don’t know what to make of the rumor because just yesterday, they were told to improve driver treatment? → Why order improvements if the government will soon be in charge? (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2021-09-02/china-criticizes-didi-meituan-in-car-hailing-clampdown-video)
Didi also denies any such event is underway:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-04/didi-denies-report-of-government-arranged-equity-investment
The incoming information is completely varied and unclear. This has been the case for several weeks.
It feels like someone is playing to their own advantage by instilling fear in the markets.
Who knows, maybe China’s communication is just genuinely unclear.
Misery loves company, and nothing destroys markets like fear.
If Beijing city attempts to buy its way in, the most important question is the price.
If the price doesn’t correlate at all or is significantly below market price, I would expect to see an exodus from the Chinese tech sector. If the shares were paid at a so-called fair or market price, the situation would be the opposite and reassuring.
Day after day, I find myself thinking, “the news doesn’t affect the fundamentals of the company I own.”
“I own the company, not the stock.” (Of course, in the case of an ADR, some might say I don’t own anything at all.
)
Whatever the impact on fundamentals, this market turmoil is starting to get to me.
As Peter Lynch said, the most important organ in the markets is not always the brain, but the stomach. And we’ll go with that, or at least try to.
This particular case has made me reflect on my risk tolerance and what kind of risks I am willing to accept. So, if anything, I have “grown” as an investor.
The case has also highlighted that in China, IT IS COMPLETELY POSSIBLE TO LOSE ALL CAPITAL,
and I recommend that everyone investing in these companies or Chinese companies research the matter thoroughly before making their investment decision.
I still believe my investment thesis is sound, and the impact of these issues on my companies will remain reasonable in the long term (slightly slower growth, increased cost of capital, higher “tax rate”).
And for example, Tencent’s business would not be destroyed by current regulation.
I have positions in both Alibaba and Tencent. I am young and at times risk-tolerant.
My feeling right now, however, is that I want to pull my hat down for 6 months, put on some Popeda [Finnish rock band],
and come back then to see where we are.