Here are Joni’s preview comments as Telia reports its results on Thursday.
We forecast that revenue grew slightly and profitability improved, driven by cost savings. Combined, we expect earnings growth to be at the Q3 level in line with previous communications, meaning slightly slower than for the full year (5%). Like the consensus, we expect earnings growth to slow down in 2026 as the impact of major cost savings fades. Thus, we are following comments on how earnings growth could be kept brisk this year as well. Additionally, we expect the company to guide cash flow to be at a level of at least 8 billion, which is the minimum required level for returning to a sustainable dividend distribution base.
No rocket-like growth is guided, and the dividend is being hiked cautiously.
Outlook 2026: Service revenue growth, like for like, around 2%, adjusted EBITDA growth, like for like, around 3%, CAPEX excluding spectrum and leases below SEK 13 billion and free cash flow around SEK 9 billion.
- For 2025, the Board of Directors proposes to the Annual General Meeting a dividend of SEK 2.05 per share (2.00).
Here are Joni’s quick comments on Telia’s results.
Telia’s Q4 report was slightly softer than our expectations in terms of figures, but the guidance was better than expected. Comparable revenue grew but fell slightly short of our forecasts. Earnings grew driven by cost savings, but earnings growth nevertheless slowed more than we expected. Cash flow was good in Q4 and throughout 2025, on the back of which the company proposed a dividend increase for the first time in a long while. The company’s operational guidance for 2026 was above our and consensus expectations. We are thus monitoring what gives confidence in the growth trajectory in line with the guidance. Additionally, the cash flow guidance for 2026 is positive and clearly covers the dividend.
Here are Joni’s concise comments on how Telia and Lyse are forming a 50/50 joint venture that combines Telia’s and ice’s mobile radio access networks (RAN) in Norway
“We are raising the target price for Telia’s share to 38.0 euros”