Here are Joni’s comments from Telia’s analyst call before the quiet period. 
Telia held an analyst call before the start of the quiet period. The company reviewed geographical and group-level observations during the call. In the big picture, Q2 will have slower earnings growth than the rest of the year, as previously communicated. Below are observations related to Q2.
Here are Joni’s brief comments on how Telia completed the sale of its TV & Media business.
Below are Joni’s comments as Telia publishes its Q2 report on Friday morning.
We forecast revenue to have grown slightly and profitability to have improved, driven by cost savings. In the big picture, earnings growth in Q2 is slower than in the latter half of the year. We made small negative forecast adjustments before the results, mainly due to the weaker-than-expected situation in Norway. We forecast the company’s operational performance to be at the very bottom end of its guidance for the current year. In our view, the stock is currently fairly priced. We reiterate our target price of 34 SEK for the stock and a Reduce recommendation.
The story continues: Telia Company signs MoU to divest Latvian operations
Less than 4% of revenue and over 7% of EBITDA came from Latvia. Hopefully the price is right, as it was in Denmark.
Telia’s strategy used to be to be an operator in the Nordics and Baltics, or something to that effect. Now the strategy states that Telia operates in markets where it is number one or a clear challenger right behind in second place. Perhaps even the Finnish operations will be sold if the three-letter competitor starts to pull ahead…
One can only hope that these divestments will eventually lead to a smaller but more agile and developing Telia, so that earnings can also eventually grow.
Also some discussions regarding Valokuitunen (Telia 40%).
Telia acquiring Swedish company Bredband2, price approx. €275 million. Premium to yesterday’s share price 34.9%
Regarding Q2
And here are Joni’s comments.
Telia’s Q2 report was broadly in line with our expectations. Comparable revenue grew, but was slightly below our expectations. Earnings grew clearly driven by cost savings, which was in line with our forecasts. However, the focus today is on the corporate transactions announced by the company yesterday evening and this morning. The company, as expected, reiterated its guidance for 2025, which anticipates good earnings growth.
Without delving deeper into the matter, Telia’s interest in these fiber optic companies is a bit puzzling. This Bredband2 is an open network, which means, as I understand it, Telia’s business would be to maintain and build a fiber optic network whose users can get an actual connection from other operators besides Telia. Recently, Telia divested its “Tower” business, and now, in its place, it’s acquiring highly competitive fiber optic networks.
Perhaps the acquisition of fiber networks is related to the development of the security situation in recent years. Telia’s largest owner, the Swedish state, may well have an interest in increasing its ownership/control in Swedish telecommunications networks, and this can be achieved by buying such networks with the money that is freed up when they withdraw from markets where their market share is small.
That “open network” is a bit misleading, because in this case, the network is still owned by Telia, which leases it to other service providers. These providers, in turn, pay Telia rent for using the network if they get a customer to take their subscription.
So, in practice, because of this rent, the prices of other service providers rise to such an extent that, from the customer’s perspective, the subscription is likely cheapest to get from Telia in the end.
Here is Joni’s drafted company report on Telia right after its Q2 report.
We raise Telia’s share target price to SEK 35.0 (previously SEK 34.0) reflecting forecast changes and reiterate our ‘reduce’ recommendation for the stock. Telia’s Q2 report was overall relatively well in line with our expectations. However, the focus was on the recent M&A news. We forecast the company to grow exactly in line with guidance, which is a good level compared to historical performance. The stock’s valuation (2025e P/E and EV/EBIT 16x and 15x) remains neutral, considering the already stretched earnings growth expectations.
Here are Joni Grönqvist’s comments from Telia’s pre-quiet period analyst call.
Telia organized an analyst call before the quiet period began. During the analyst call, the company went through group-level and geographical observations. In the big picture, Q3 will, as previously communicated, have slower earnings growth than the full year (5%). Market-wise, there were no major changes in trends compared to before. Below are observations related to Q3.
Here are Joni’s pre-report thoughts as Telia releases its Q3 report on Thursday.
We estimate revenue to have grown slightly and profitability to have improved, driven by cost savings. Combined, we expect slightly slower earnings growth for Q3 compared to the full year. For the full year, we forecast the company’s operational performance to be at the very low end of its guidance. Additionally, we will be monitoring comments on how earnings growth could be maintained at a brisk pace next year as well, when the effects of the extensive cost-saving program diminish.
Here are @Joni_Gronqvist’s quick comments on Telia’s Q3 results.
Telia’s Q3 report was in line with our expectations in terms of figures. Comparable revenue grew but was slightly below our forecasts. Earnings grew driven by cost savings, which was in line with our forecasts, but geographically there were significant differences. The company slightly raised its cash flow guidance for 2025, driven by lower investments.
Here is a fresh company report from Joni on Telia after Q3.
We reiterate our target price of SEK 35.0 and a Reduce recommendation for Telia’s share. Telia’s Q3 figures were in line with our expectations. A positive surprise was the slight increase in cash flow guidance. However, the big picture challenge in the coming years remains how to maintain good earnings growth once the effects of the extensive cost-saving program diminish. The share’s valuation (2025e P/E and EV/EBIT 17x and 15x) remains neutral, considering the challenging earnings growth in the coming years.
Bank of America raised Telia’s target price to 46 SEK. Finally, things are happening.
Here are Joni’s comments from the Telia analyst call.
Telia held an analyst call before the start of the silent period. During the call, the company reviewed group-level and geographical observations. In the big picture, Q4 earnings growth will be at the level of Q3, as previously communicated, meaning slightly slower than the full year (5%). There were no major changes by market; Sweden and the Baltics have performed well, while Norway and Finland have been weaker. Below are observations related to Q4.