Deep-sea minerals - 10x or nothing

TMC the metals (TMC) recently secured significant strategic funding from Korea Zinc and Allseas, which strengthens its cash position for the next two years. Regulatory progress with NOAA has also advanced, confirming compliance for its U.S. exploration licenses.

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In that sense, there is already old information regarding the latest rally. Behind this rally of the past few days has been the US government’s possible buy-in of TMC. The administration has already bought a stake in a few other critical mineral value chain companies. TMC would be a continuation of that.

If this were to happen, it would be a red carpet for TMC to proceed with production. From TMC’s perspective, permitting is the only blocker preventing the start of production. Permitting, in turn, is up to the US authorities. A US government buy-in would ensure the rapid progression of the permitting process.

When you check Yahoo’s pages, you can see that ~50% of TMC’s shares are held by insiders. ~11% by institutions. The number of shares available for trading is quite small. If the US government’s purchase is not a direct offering, but a buying process from the open market, it will cause massive pressure on the buy side.

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Trilogy Metals’ Stock Soared by Over 200 Percent – Due to Trump Administration’s Actions

Donald Trump’s administration aims to secure strategically important raw material reserves through stock ownership.

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Behind today’s solid 20% opening was news of JP Morgan swimming in the wake of the DOD with even 10 billion in the critical minerals sector in the form of financing and investments. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/13/jpmorgan-chase-to-invest-10-billion-into-key-industries-.html

My finger also hovered over the sell button, as from a risk management perspective, it feels sensible to lighten the position to half of the current thousand shares. I thought that 11 dollars and ~1200% return would be good for this. However, I didn’t quite catch the sharpest peak of the day. It seems the volumes have already decreased for today. Previously, I’ve thought that with TMC, it’s all or nothing. Over time, perhaps the wisest move is to realize and secure good profits. Then I can watch the remaining position truly to the very end.

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Big wheels are turning for TMC. NOAA has submitted a proposal for CCZ permitting to the White House.

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TMC’s Q3 was partly “ugly on paper,” but the reason was accounting-related; the improved financial outlook of the mining project forced the recording of a large non-cash royalty expense, which inflated the net loss. More important metrics for the business, such as the cash buffer and the project’s progress towards permits and production, looked good.

The company is progressing in the US permitting process, as it has ample cash and apparently no immediate need for new financing. The company also took a step forward in processing by producing battery-grade manganese, which supports its future position in the battery market.

The biggest risk remains that the commercial permit will be delayed or not obtained at all.

https://x.com/CHItraders/status/1989077583770911181


Company’s Own Materials




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https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-speed-permits-deep-sea-mining-international-waters-2026-01-21/

Yesterday, TMC’s share price jumped 13% on the back of that news, and the after-market is showing a 9% rise as well. Trump and the USA’s race for minerals is heating up. I jumped in now and expect the Trump administration to push this through to the finish line, even if by force.

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Massive things for TMC NOAA Determines TMC USA’s Consolidated Deep-Seabed Mining

This isn’t a “home run” yet, and the red tape process in the USA continues. From what I understand, this NOAA compliance thing was the biggest hurdle to overcome. Let’s see how TMC’s IR comments on this.

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Yesterday’s 20% jump can likely be explained by WSB becoming active https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/s/cswQbaGn0O. For a long time, you couldn’t talk about TMC on the WSB subreddit due to its small market cap and unwritten rules. Threads were deleted. Now they aren’t. I’ve been waiting for when the memers would find TMC. The case includes so many individual elements (a mispriced and misunderstood risky play with a Trump twist) that this “esteemed internet community” loves.

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@Thiebault wrote excellently about bottlenecks and how they will have an impact. The markets are now sniffing out these bottlenecks and are ready to go as far as exploring for rare earth metals. Everyone probably understands that it takes quite a long time from the start of exploration until a deep-sea mine is actually opened. TMC, however, seems to be benefiting from this bottleneck-thinking. The same is happening to MIND. An abysmal quarterly report, yet the share price seems to be recovering. Even AI knows that deep-sea exploration cannot be done without MIND’s help. Yours truly still holds a few thousand shares of MIND, and in fact, I picked up 500 more when we went under 6 bucks. A small position compared to before, but it can sit in the portfolio for now waiting for the hype. The “picks and shovels” phrase familiar from gold mining fits well here. When considering exploration and mapping, MIND specifically sells the picks and shovels, and is practically the only player on the market.

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More news from TMC ahead of next week’s earnings report: Ihre Datenschutzeinstellungen

Allseas has been an operational partner throughout practically the entire history of TMC. Allseas also owns a significant portion of TMC shares.

TMC’s future depends heavily on the US administration. Across the political spectrum in the US, it is customary for politicians to sooner or later find themselves investing in companies like TMC. This is the so-called “final nail” (last piece of the puzzle) that I have been waiting for.

Out of these AI megacycle raw materials, 3/4 can be found in TMC’s CCZ nodules: nickel, copper, and cobalt.

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