SSH Communications Security as an investment target

Roni interviewed SSH CEO Rami Raulas regarding the Q4 results :slight_smile:

Topics:

00:00 Introduction
00:11 SSH’s year 2025
02:02 Negative profit warning
02:54 North America
04:07 Leonardo cooperation
08:16 Growth potential with Leonardo
09:06 Partnerships in Asia
10:31 Balance sheet situation
11:21 Hybrid loan
11:56 AI
15:25 Dependence on US companies
18:35 Guidance

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I listened to the interview. I don’t know if it’s just me, but the answers to the questions seemed very “vague” to me. Is it worth letting your funds sit idle here when you could still exit at a profit? I didn’t get an answer from the interview.

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Roni has written a new company report on SSH after the Q4 results were released :slight_smile:

SSH’s Q4 was even slightly softer than our forecasts following the profit warning, although the weakness was mainly explained by a one-off license deal. The growth guidance was soft in terms of information value and contained very little concrete detail on the growth outlook brought by the Leonardo partnership. The potential brought by the partnership is significant, but without evidence, we believe the risk-reward ratio of the stock—which prices in strong scalable growth—remains weak at the current valuation. We reiterate our EUR 2.0 target price and sell recommendation.

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Here are Roni’s comments on SSH announcing a tender offer for part of its hybrid loan. :slight_smile:

SSH announced that it is launching a voluntary tender offer for its hybrid loan, in which the company proposes to buy back up to EUR 6 million of the hybrid loan. In this case, some of the hybrid loan would still remain on the balance sheet, although the final amount is still at the company’s discretion based on the offers received from the holders of the loan units. We consider the buyback of the hybrid debt logical and expected as the balance sheet position has strengthened following the directed issue made by Leonardo last year. Our forecasts already include a partial buyback of the hybrid debt of the announced size for the current year, and thus there is no preliminary need for changes to them. We will next review our forecasts in connection with the outcome of the tender offer or the Q1 results.

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What will Kommosen’s role be in the future now that a new CFO has been appointed?

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Here are Roni’s comments on how SSH is buying back most of its hybrid loan. :slight_smile:

SSH announced that it would buy back a significantly larger amount of its hybrid bond than previously indicated minimum. The company accepted buyback offers totaling EUR 8.6 million in nominal value, which corresponds to a cash consideration of approximately EUR 11.1 million. Our forecasts included a partial buyback of the hybrid debt this year, but the amount exceeded our estimates, and we will update them in connection with the Q1 results.

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An article (no paywall, I think) about the dismissal of Leonardo’s boss, in which none other than Donald Trump had a hand, and the dismissal was carried out by PM Giorgia Meloni:

“Trump’s actions and the change in Leonardo’s leadership are also felt in Finland, as Leonardo is the largest owner of SSH, a public company listed in Helsinki, with a 24.55 percent share. The Italian company is particularly interested in SSH’s ZeroTrust Suite technology, which is expected to become a NATO standard. Time will tell whether the US president will take as strong a stance on it as he did on Michelangelo’s dome.”

Donald Trump hit a European defense giant – This is what it’s about | Uusi Suomi

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https://www.dac.nokia.com/newsroom/ssh-privx-on-mxie/

No need to promote it ourselves when Nokia’s machinery handles the job. US markets open.

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SSH Communications Security’s PrivX OT bolsters Nokia Industrial Edge platform security

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Here are Roni’s preview comments as SSH reports its Q1 results on Tuesday, April 28. :slight_smile:

SSH will publish its Q1 business review on Tuesday, April 28, 2026, at approximately 9:00 AM. We expect the company’s revenue to have grown at a single-digit rate, driven by subscription sales, and EBITDA to have been slightly positive. The Leonardo partnership, which is critical for the company, has not yet materialized as accelerated revenue growth, and our focus in the report is on the progress of the partnership and the related sales pipeline.

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Roni interviewed SSH CEO Rami Raulas after SSH’s Q1 :slight_smile:

Topics:

00:00 Introduction
00:10 Q1 summary
01:41 Development across different products
03:27 Cost structure and growth investments
04:38 Organizational change
05:47 Progress of the Leonardo partnership
09:06 Sales pipeline
10:40 Intragen partnership
12:02 PrivX OT solution and Nokia
13:19 Market environment
14:12 Hybrid loan

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Here is the company report from Roni on SSH’s Q1 results. :slight_smile:

SSH’s growth and earnings fell short of our forecasts in Q1, and the Leonardo partnership has not yet translated into accelerated growth. We cut our growth forecasts, but we expect the company’s growth to accelerate in the coming quarters. Without evidence of strong scalable growth, we still consider the stock’s valuation to be high (26e EV/S 5x). Following the forecast cuts, we are lowering our target price to EUR 1.9 (prev. EUR 2.0) and reiterating our sell recommendation.

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Here are Roni’s comments on the new contracts signed by SSH :slight_smile:

SSH announced on Wednesday that it has won several new customer accounts, which will initially bring the company just under EUR 1 million in annual recurring revenue (ARR). We consider the announcement a positive sign that the sales pipeline growth commented on by the company in connection with its Q1 results has begun to materialize into concrete contracts. The company already mentioned some of the now-announced deals in yesterday’s Q1 webcast, and according to our understanding, some were already won during Q1.

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