One username wrote on the Nordnet discussion forum that Sosi had been recommended by an influencer/influencers. Even though it’s just one username, I see this as very likely. Similar behavior happens daily with US stocks.
Larger speculative money has found Sosi.
Combined with the rise in silver and the drilling results, the volatility has been wild.
Could it be a strategic move to take advantage of the impressive share price rally at some point and build a solid cash position through a medium-sized share issue—to be used for financing, expansion, and searching for new discoveries? Boldly moving towards larger volumes.
That is, provided there are willing hands at a higher valuation. Many would probably first want to see concrete evidence that the difficulties ended with the turn of the year.
I think comments like these show that the market is too hot and it’s time to step aside. The fact that silver is now at $xx doesn’t mean it will stay at that level for the foreseeable future. As we have seen from every single previous silver price cycle, what goes up fast comes down just as hard. Anyone more committed to the subject surely knows that silver won’t stay at these levels for long (this isn’t even a question of supply and demand imbalance, but of the hype surrounding precious metals). Certainly, the results for a few quarters, and in a good scenario even the whole year (if they really manage to get something out of the gravel pit), will be at a very good level, but future cash flows are on a much more uncertain footing.
The silver price doesn’t directly determine the stock price because the company sells silver concentrate and doesn’t refine it themselves or sell pure silver, so a lot depends on what kind of agreements the company has with buyers since there are fewer of them than buyers of pure silver.
Demand for physical silver doesn’t show any signs of ending yet as prices keep rising, and especially from China, wild numbers are being reported with talk of prices already exceeding $90 per oz.
So, the price of silver is at all-time highs even here, at over $85, and many factors suggest that the silver price will only keep rising and will remain high for a long time. Experts are consistently talking about prices of up to $200 for the current year.
The Q3/25 interim report mentions that “The company hedges most of the price of the delivered silver with derivative contracts. An increase in the spot price is reflected in the company’s revenue with a small delay, as the hedging horizon is two months. Hedging decreased the quarter’s revenue by 6 MSEK. The final selling price of silver is determined two months after the delivery period.”
If Q3 revenue was 110 MSEK, is that figure then scaled by a factor: the average silver price of 8-10/25 divided by the average silver price of 5-7/25, to get an estimate for Q4/25 revenue? At a glance, the multiplier would be around 1.3, and revenue would rise to 143 MSEK, and with the cost structure remaining the same, EBITDA would rise from the 35 MSEK level to 68 MSEK?
By the same logic, Q4/25 → Q1/26 would seem to show revenue rising (depending, of course, on the silver price development in early January) with a similar eyeball analysis by a factor of 1.7 to 243 MSEK, and correspondingly EBITDA to 168 MSEK.
This kind of “analysis” naturally completely ignores potential disappointments in grades, positive surprises, etc. The company is still quite likely to produce a decent result at least for the current quarter. I wonder if it would be possible to lock in prices with futures for a longer period? The current share price would be quite justified if the silver price stayed at its current level for, say, a year ahead.
Contractor change underway, maybe already done, maybe not, how long was the production outage… Management set lazy medium-term targets, which again allows for a lazy pace of communication as they can argue there’s plenty of time to reach the annual target, only to issue profit warnings throughout the rest of the year as they fall behind. The cash crisis doesn’t help the situation, so it’s absolutely critical to get things rocking with the new contractor. Will the bedrock hold? Will there be spring floods? Will a truck catch fire in the tunnel? Locusts? Was there another loan installment repayment in March, putting the cash under pressure?
Many open questions, especially regarding the competence of the shareless management, are in the air…
The targets were indeed set very lazily. There’s really no need to take any responsibility, and all you have to do is show up. If the gravel isn’t being extracted, it’s the contractor’s fault.
Inderes has released a new update. Question: what silver price did you use for the update? The current price or some forecasted range?
Aapeli has indeed published a new company report on Sotkamo Silver 
Sotkamo Silver’s outlook has improved due to favorable exploration results and a sharp rise in the price of silver. The latter also supports the company’s profitability, as reflecting the nature of mining operations, the price change flows practically directly to the bottom line. The market situation offers the company an opportunity to strengthen its financial position even with a moderate performance, reflecting which we have also clearly lowered our required rate of return. As a result, the value of our sum-of-the-parts model multiplied. Despite the significant positive forecast changes, our model still remains below the current share price. We therefore reiterate our reduce recommendation for the share, but raise our target price to SEK 3.0 (prev. SEK 1.0).
Hi!
A good and relevant question, so I’ll quote an excerpt from the report’s internal pages here to provide some background. That is: ”We also revised the market parameter forecasts, which are typically based on Bloomberg consensus estimates for the coming years. The forecasts had risen significantly since our previous update (2026e-2028e: 50-60 USD/oz vs. prev. 37-50.5 USD/oz), but were well below the spot price, which has risen sharply recently (~75-85 USD/oz). As a result, we have applied premium pricing relative to the consensus in our forecasts for the coming years (2026-2028), and our silver price forecasts are now set at 55-85 USD/oz (Q1’26-2028), while our long-term forecasts are at the consensus level of 50 USD/oz.”
Now that the price of silver is already starting to approach $100/oz, at least there hasn’t been an announcement from the company that the contractor change was successful and that operations are now at full capacity. I personally assume that such a thing would be announced, and since it’s already the 3rd week of the year, you’d think it would have happened by now.
Tapojärvi launches mining operations at Sotkamo Silver’s silver mine 
Tapojärvi has started a new mining contract at Sotkamo Silver’s silver mine as planned.
Tapojärven mukaan homma lähti rullaamaan suunnitelmien mukaan
Good to know that things are moving along, but you’d think the mining company itself would announce a successful contractor change; apparently, this company doesn’t do that.
Is nobody really going to comment on the fact that Inderes’ recommendation for Sotkamo Silver stock 8 days ago was REDUCE with a target price of 3 SEK — and the stock is skyrocketing, it already went over 7 SEK?
It’s starting to feel like the rise isn’t justified, but it doesn’t really matter—the returns have come easily and have been quite substantial. I haven’t held it in my portfolio for very long; we’re talking hours. It was the same pattern today as yesterday: it dropped sharply during the day, and many probably reacted to that. I haven’t even looked at any key figures; I’ve just been riding the hype, buying and selling. I wonder if there are even any metrics that would correlate with the share price right now.
Inderes’ value likely lies primarily in the companies’ financial calculations and estimates for the coming years; the realism of the figures within them can then be pondered, which in turn affects the target price. Buy/sell recommendations should be completely ignored, especially since the “hold” recommendation is missing, which undermines the reliability of the buy/sell recommendations.
I have personally pointed out here a few times before that Inderes’ estimate for silver price development is on the low side, as has been the case. Generally, they have hidden behind some consensus here. Regarding the company, time and time again the results have failed to meet the expectations created by the market price of silver. Personally, I don’t dare hold the shares through the Q4 results because it’s uncertain how some will react to them—even if they were completely as expected—given that the “reference point” consists of massive expectations for this year.
I wonder if the decline of silver, and Sotkamo Silver along with it, has now begun? Trump’s speeches caused silver to drop 17%. What will happen if peace is achieved? There has been quite a bit of hype over the last year and the start of this one. I sold mine while I could still make a profit.
If you’re interested in a smart analysis of silver’s price development, I recommend reading the posts by the author of Macro Charts on Substack. I shorted silver today using a mini future based on his analysis.
You’re probably right. However, silver isn’t really bought for investment purposes in the same way gold is. Silver is an industrial metal. A good and important one at that. Nations build up gold reserves, but not silver.