SoFi Technologies - Banking Disruptor in the US

A search for the word SoFi seems to yield exactly one result on the forum. That hit was from some SPAC thread almost a year ago. This disruptive and relatively small growth company is one of the largest positions in my portfolio. I find the company interesting, so let’s try to bring it to the attention of others with its own thread and a comprehensive introduction. Here you go.

Background
SoFi Technologies is an American financial technology company. The company went public in 2021 through a SPAC listing. SoFi, also known as Social Finance, was founded in 2011 at Stanford University. Its purpose was to provide more affordable financing for students’ studies, for which it received two million dollars in funding from alumni. The company quickly raised more funding, and its operations expanded rapidly, though the first few years revolved around student financing. In 2014, mortgages were introduced, and a year later, personal loans. In the same year, SoFi was the first American fintech company to raise a billion dollars in funding at once, which came from Softbank. Since then, SoFi has also launched accounts, cards, investments, and, of course, cryptocurrencies in line with modern trends, offering consumers a nearly full portfolio of banking products.

The ‘Technologies’ in the name primarily refers to the Galileo platform, which SoFi acquired in 2020 for 1.2 billion dollars. Galileo is a core banking platform used by, among others, Robinhood, Wise, and Chime. SoFi Bank, on the other hand, is emerging as the company merges with a small Californian bank it acquired. This arrangement will grant SoFi an official banking license, which reduces SoFi’s dependence on other banks and provides the opportunity to operate like a real bank. Which it would then be. So far, only preliminary approval has been received, but final approval was already expected by the end of last year. There has been a news blackout for a while, but perhaps we will be wiser after the Q4 earnings release.

SoFi has an NFL stadium bearing its name in Los Angeles, where the LA Rams and LA Chargers play. In less than a month, this year’s Super Bowl is scheduled to be held there, so visibility is guaranteed. SoFi customers are offered benefits at SoFi Stadium. The opening ceremonies of the 2028 Olympics will be held at the stadium, but as I understand it, sponsored stadium names are not used in the Olympics.

How is the company doing?
The latest available figures are from Q3. I’ll link them here for everyone to examine in more detail. In short, growth is strong by many metrics. YoY customer count grew by almost 100%. Losses are being made, but growth is prioritized, and achieving a profitable result is not far off.

Management
I’ll link SoFi’s leadership pages for more detailed research. A few words, however. CEO Anthony Noto has a banking background from Goldman Sachs, and he has also been Twitter’s COO and the NFL’s CFO. The rest of the management team has a diverse background from the banking sector, but also from outside it. At face value, they don’t tell me anything, and I haven’t researched their backgrounds and merits in any great detail, but a quick look suggests that they have managed to recruit professionals with diverse backgrounds from various fields into leadership, and the company is no longer run by four students. So, we’ve come a long way from the founding stages.

Differences from competitors
Fintech companies have sprung up like mushrooms after rain, and frankly, I haven’t had the energy to examine all of them too closely. Based on what I’ve read and watched in videos, it seems that SoFi is one of the few, if not the only one, that offers consumers virtually all banking services from a single “window”. Among those operating in Europe, I myself have used Revolut and a couple of others. They work quite well, but their service offerings are very limited. An account, a card, some limited investment activities. That’s it. A similar situation seems to exist across the Atlantic. There are many specialized in one thing or excellent in one service, but a comprehensive digital bank like SoFi has not come across in my research. I believe I would have encountered them if they existed, but I’ll allow for error.

Why I invested?
Banks, and especially banks in the United States, need a good shake-up when it comes to technology. If change doesn’t come from within the industry, it must come from a new and small player. I don’t claim to fully understand the US banking sector from the perspective of an ordinary consumer, but from what I’ve gathered, they are certainly no more advanced there than here in Finland, where the situation is quite OK. A fully digital SoFi could succeed in capturing a good share of the market if growth continues in the same way and there are no major bumps along the road.

SoFi wants to be a digital one-stop bank for consumers. Based on everything, it seems I would be their customer if I lived in the United States. In my opinion, SoFi is well-positioned in the digitalizing banking world. I believe in the company and will keep the shares in my long-term portfolio.

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I have also been actively following the company and own shares. There’s a lot more information about SoFi on Reddit, for example, and the company has many active Twitter users, but it’s great that we now have our own thread on Inderes.

All SoFi owners are probably currently waiting for this “any day now” banking license, which has been expected to arrive any moment for the past six months. I’m also waiting for it because I believe it removes a lot of uncertainty surrounding the company and directly improves its results and competitiveness. The Q3/2021 figures were above forecasts in every aspect, and the company raised its 2022 guidance. One would also hope that the banking license would somewhat rectify the stock’s melted price, although no huge jump is likely in the current market.

In the long run, SoFi still has a lot to prove, but the start has been very promising.

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And there it is, the banking license! A nearly +17% jump in the aftermarket in response. Otherwise, the stock performance has been ugly lately, but so have the stock prices of other companies.

Now, SoFi, for example, can lend to its customers more affordably and offer better deposit rates as intermediaries are cut out. This will also have an impact on the bottom line.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sofi-receives-regulatory-approval-become-230100572.html?guccounter=1

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The price target increases already started yesterday :slight_smile: This is great news indeed, and SoFi holders must have had a rather painful time. Now the path is open, hopefully SoFi will continue its series of positive news…

However, now it might happen that a large bank buys it out (Citi).

Sean Horgan from Rosenblatt Securities reiterated a Buy rating on SoFi Technologies ( $SOFI – Research Report), with a price target of $30.00.

— 🅰️kciový GURU (@AkciovyGURU) January 19, 2022

It will also be interesting to see if this triggers a minor short squeeze.

$SOFI Short Interest is at 10.24% roughly 80 million shares with 2 days to cover. This could get very interesting by end of the week.
.@anthonynoto won't be taking any prisoners.
.
Give them nothing but take everything! pic.twitter.com/AAKI0tTicT

— SilentAlert (@SilentAlert1) January 19, 2022
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CNBC commented that “SoFi is a screaming buy!” The target price is rising, and the company is gaining good visibility and high trading volume for its stock. Looks good!

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And after that, the CNBC/Cramer interview :slight_smile:

Good summary of Noto’s points: https://www.reddit.com/r/sofistock/comments/s84lid/my_key_takeaways_from_anthony_notos_mad_money/

Noto’s goal is for SoFi to be one of the five largest financial institutions/banks in the United States… wow. So, in the trillion-dollar class :smiley:

Rank Bank Name Total Assets
1 JPMorgan Chase $2.87 Trillion
2 Bank of America $2.16 Trillion
3 Wells Fargo & Co. $1.75 Trillion
4 Citigroup $1.65 Trillion
5 U.S. Bancorp $530.50 Billion
6 Truist Financial Corporation $488.02 Billion
7 PNC Financial Services $457.45 Billion
8 TD Bank $388.34 Billion
9 Capital One $360.26 Billion
10 Bank of New York Mellon Corp. $349.43 Billion
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Nordea bought some SoFi :slight_smile:

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Many thanks for opening the SoFi thread! I was involved during the Hedosophia era, but once I sold my shares, I completely forgot about the company.

I went through the presentations and the website. I must say, I am very impressed with the company’s achievements. I’m not an expert in financial services, but all the charts are going up, the offering really looks comprehensive, and best of all :crazy_face:, the stock price has dropped to a level where the decision to add it to my portfolio was very easy.

The market cap hovers around $10 billion, and with the 2021 revenue forecast hitting a billion, the 2021 P/S ratio is about 10. Growth has been strong for years, relying on just a few products. However, only now can the product range be considered complete, and full banking rights were only granted last week. Therefore, I dare to bullishly predict that SoFi will continue to grow at roughly 50% per year in the coming years.

SoFi will surely pose a tough challenge to brick-and-mortar banks, with their billions of tons of granite piles and hundreds of thousands of employees. This is real and working disruption that could become a truly huge business faster than we think. Good luck to all SoFinistas!

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Let’s clarify a bit, so we don’t get an overly positive picture of this company either. So, in the Q3 report, all curves were indeed upward, but the net result was still a 30 million loss, as stated in the small print on page 17 of the presentation. This is an improvement of 12 million compared to a year ago, so it’s good development. However, the full-year net loss will almost double due to the large minuses in H1/21.

Revenue is growing rapidly, so profit will also grow strongly, but what remains at the bottom line depends on many factors. In American style, SoFi is also focusing on aggressive growth, while the market currently wants to see money now - not next year or the year after. It’s impossible to estimate when the stock will bottom, or if it already has, but on the other hand, these are the times when there’s an opportunity to make good purchases in growth companies for the future.

SoFi’s financial statement seems to be due only on March 1st, so a lot can happen before then, including the Super Bowl at SoFi Stadium in a couple of weeks. Hopefully, the volatility will calm down at the latest when we get new guidance.

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SoFi to Buy Banking-Infrastructure Firm Technisys for About $1.1 Billion

https://www.sofi.com/press/sofi-to-acquire-technisys

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Sofilta’s really strong growth, good outlook for the future, and with that, the stock traded +18% after the market closed :folded_hands:t3:

https://www.sofi.com/press/sofi-technologies-reports-fourth-quarter-2021-results/

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Do I understand this correctly: $1 billion in revenue, they’re making a loss, and management is buying back $239 million in shares?

Yeah, heavy compensation packages are in use, but in America everything is big and nothing comes for free. If you consider the lowest market values of last week, somewhere around 6 billion, then those compensation sums are indeed staggering. Well, there have been ‘small’ market disruptions, such as the pandemic, war, the highest inflation in decades, central banks’ dithering, etc., so it’s no wonder that fresh tech companies like SoFi have been hit hard.

Now, however, it seems that the worst might be over. Especially the Fed’s statement with a more detailed plan clearly calmed the US market. The slimy guy next door might still cause problems, but he seems to be getting quite isolated, so there’s hope for the better there too.

And as for SoFi, insiders have made quite significant purchases all last week. Of course, no one has to be involved in this, but I, for one, will hold onto my shares as long as strong growth continues, and in my opinion, it can continue for a very long time and strongly, as full banking rights were only recently obtained and the product assortment is more or less in order. Only now has SoFi practically entered the entire US market.

My other horse in this field is Upstart, which offers an AI-based lending service without its own risk, meaning banks and other financiers act as lenders. In the US, it has been difficult for highly creditworthy individuals to get loans in a conservative system, and based on the results so far, UPST has succeeded exceptionally well. It’s worth checking out the company, and if you read, for example, the CEO’s Q4 transcript, you’ll get a grasp of what they do and how they plan to conquer the world:

https://ir.upstart.com/

PS In my opinion, this UPST deserves its own thread, so if someone gets excited and has time, it might be beneficial for many future mass individuals ; )

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I’ve come to the same conclusions through my own analyses. SoFi and Upstart are my horses in the fintech race. SoFi is burning cash at an incredible rate, for example, the SoFi Stadium naming rights cost $500 million. On the other hand, this puts the company’s name on practically everyone’s lips, meaning it could easily pay back the investment if the business itself is in good shape.

Upstart, on the other hand, is already profitable and has started share buybacks. They are currently working on a web application for car sales.

Both companies have a huge number of development positions open on LinkedIn. This indicates they have cash and faith in what they are doing.

Ultimately, both are speculative stocks. I personally estimate there’s a 25% chance the stock price will be 10x in 3 years. On the other hand, there’s the same 25% chance the company will be almost worthless in 3 years. The remaining 50% falls somewhere in between. Since I am ultimately a safety-conscious investor, only 2.5% of my portfolio is invested in each. Real gamblers would go in with bigger slices and leverage on top of that, but I don’t have the guts for that.

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Great to find fellow sufferers : ) In my opinion, the upside is significant, but I can’t see how they could screw up their business in just 3 years to the extent that one could suffer huge losses from these levels. SoFi is, after all, over a decade old, and the growth curves are already impressive with the old setup. Now they’re listed, have full banking rights, and those investments in visibility, among other things, should bring in many new customers. It will be very interesting to see the impact of the Super Bowl on the next earnings reports. I believe word-of-mouth will also accelerate, and growth will fuel growth. Here’s one recent SoFi rave:

The article presents many good arguments, including the team’s composition. It’s quite challenging to come alongside and surpass SoFi from out of nowhere. By monitoring what’s happening in the market, one should have time to disengage if it turns out that competition rapidly erodes SoFi’s growth. Traditional brick-and-mortar banks protect their palaces and personnel, and I don’t believe a very quick counterattack will come from there either. On the other hand, Luke’s calculations seem overly optimistic, but let’s calmly see how the story unfolds.

UPST is perhaps a bigger question mark due to its short existence. But there, too, there seems to be a solid team and a good head start with its AI application. Such explosive - and even profitable - growth indicates an excellent product, so here, too, one only needs to follow how the growth story progresses. As I understand it, the AI application continuously iterates to become better, so in this case, too, it’s likely quite challenging to start from scratch and create a more competitive product, at least not so quickly that UPST wouldn’t have time to react.

I’m just guessing as a layman, so don’t take it too seriously. I only have about 3% of my portfolio in these, but I do intend to add, perhaps even double.

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Here’s a video clip of Luke’s thoughts. The first ~18 minutes are a real SoFi barrage:

Nothing necessarily new, but it certainly reinforces my own understanding of SoFi’s competitive advantages: functional, digital-native, broad offering with banking rights, highly skilled staff… It won’t be easily overthrown from any direction.

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I personally own a good position in SoFi (Sofia) and have long-term faith in the company. In the short term (6 months), the company looks a bit weak, as there is news in the media today that Biden will extend the student loan program for another four months this week. This means pressure on SoFi’s annual guidance, as the resumption of repayments was factored in from the beginning of May. Based on SoFi’s previously provided figures, a continuous ban for the rest of the year would cost 70-100 million in revenue and eat into profits by tens of millions. It may also be difficult to meet guidance otherwise, as mortgage lending could be more moderate in the rest of the year due to rising prices and interest rates.

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SoFi Raises Deposit Rates and Offers Small Bonus to New Account Openers:

https://investors.sofi.com/news/news-details/2022/The-Best-Just-Got-Better-SoFi-Announces-1.25-APY-for-Direct-Deposit-Members/default.aspx

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Negative earnings warning today.

SoFi Updates 2022 Annual Guidance to Reflect Latest Extension of Federal Student Loan Payment Moratorium

SoFi’s updated Adjusted Net Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance for full-year 2022 is $1.47 billion and $100 million, respectively, a reduction from previous guidance of $1.57 billion and $180 million, respectively.

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I read this with extreme concern. On PayPal’s part, in the previous quarter, a bonus attracted new customers, but not the customers they wanted. In practice, it brought in a crowd that took the bonus and disappeared.

Fortunately, with SoFi, the process seemed more sensible. To receive the bonus, at least one direct deposit from an employer or similar entity must be made within 30 days. “Qualifying Direct Deposits are defined as deposits from enrolled member’s employer, payroll, or benefits provider via ACH deposit.” This should attract regular people who have jobs.

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