SM
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SM expects about 28% y/y growth in Q4/FY2025 (i.e., SEYE’s Q2), while Red Eye’s forecasts expect about 43% y/y growth for Smart from the automotive side. My own, completely speculative forecast is that automotive revenue will fall short of Red Eye’s forecasts (surprised ones, form a queue) and grow by ~30% y/y and about 10% q/q.
Then again, the company guided in connection with the previous quarter that EBITDA would be roughly at a zero level. And in turn, Q3 would already be EBITDA positive. If this were not to happen, I believe a warning should be issued – although there is still over a week left.
Therefore, if the company does not issue a warning, the result should not offer any major surprises. Without a clear increase in revenue, EBITDA will not improve from before either. It is true that various parties have spoken about the European automotive industry slowing down, but of course, for Smart Eye, it is now primarily about timing – when each model goes into production. In the big picture, no changes should occur – in my opinion, the stock price does not fully price in the production ramp-up or that it would happen in the coming years, for example, 80 percent of the original expectation.
Here are the comparison figures for a week from now.
We have a total of 365 design wins of which 75 entered production last year. Ten more were added in Q1 with two more OEMs, meaning that 12 out of 23 OEMs have started their production.
Here is the guidance precisely:
Our outlook is that we’re on the cusp of positive EBITDA in Q2 and solidly positive in Q3 of this year, riding the wave of increased automotive license revenue.
Edit: Indeed, for automotive, RedEye forecasts 43% y/y growth.. If it were to remain at, say, 30%, the revenue would be about 4 M SEK less than expected (i.e., other things being equal, about 100 M SEK for the entire company).. Perhaps this would still be within the wording “on the cusp of positive” when considering the linear EBITDA impact.
Good observations. I made a cautious forecast myself, as it is difficult to estimate how many model productions have been postponed due to tariff confusion or other reasons. I rewatched the RedEye interview after Q1, and it sounded quite promising, at least for the beginning of Q2.
Exciting times for the company in any case.
Smart Eye’s close partner, Greater Than, which provides risk data, announced today that it has expanded its previous partnership by allowing access to its data through a licensing agreement.
The stock price of Greater Than, a small company by market capitalization, sextupled due to a stock exchange release about a 1.4 million euro agreement (MoU). The counterparty was not disclosed. My own guess is Smart Eye. Of the revenues, 60 percent will go to Greater Than and 40 percent to the partner. More will be known about the partner in September. Exciting times are ahead. The goal would be to reach an annual turnover of 100 million euros within three years and 275 million euros within five years. These could be within the realm of possibility with Smart, if one considers the license fee to be 10 euros per vehicle and the sales volume to be 10 million licenses in three years.
This is, therefore, irresponsible speculation regarding Smart Eye’s connections, license prices, and volumes. I believe, therefore, that it was first tested in AIS devices and is now being taken to DMS.
Perhaps the big payday is approaching soon 
https://x.com/StockBrain247/status/1960244985162281456
Since 2020, about a billion kronor in cash has been burned, and on top of that, the Affectiva acquisition in 2021.
This primarily tells us that the wider DMS implementation happened several years later than Redeye expected at the time, and also later than the company (SE) itself expected.
So, this is somewhat in the past, but what about going forward? What are your expectations, are Redeye’s expected figures realistic from now on?
Redeye’s EBIT expectations (August 2025):
2025E: -148 M SEK
2026E: 223 M SEK
2027E: 390 M SEK
Mainly, I’m interested, “due to the style” of your message, whether you think even the current forecasts are unrealistic?
Initial Thoughts:
Revenue less than expected - timings?
Profit is still even marginally better - is it embellished?
I will return to this once I’ve gone through it a bit more.
https://www.smarteye.se/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Smart-Eye-Interim-Report-Q2-2025.pdf
A total of 90 models has entered production with 12 OEMs, and we expect that number to continue to increase rapidly.
If I looked correctly, there were 85 launches after Q1 and now 90 after Q2. Thus, additions were 10 in Q1 and only 5 in Q2.. so we are still waiting for a big move.
We ended the quarter with 94 MSEK in cash and credit facilities, which we consider sufficient given the strong outlook in the coming quarters. No further cost-saving measures are planned at this stage.
No changes, and that’s good.. Do I remember correctly that 40 models would go into production this year (or so the company had estimated earlier)? If so, the pace should accelerate during the rest of the year. This would be natural considering the changes in EU legislation for 2026.
In my opinion, the waiting continues a bit now for evidence of strong revenue growth and strong earnings development at the same time. This positive EBITDA was achieved rather through cost savings. But development should accelerate in Q3 and Q4. The actual BOOM, however, will likely remain for 2026.
In my opinion, a neutral share price reaction would be fully justified.. Then, when revenue starts to accelerate first towards a quarterly level of 150 M SEK, larger upward movements would be justified - will we get there step by step or by elevator?
Edit:
Simply put, I estimate that Q4 revenue should be around 130-140 MSEK for the company’s own earlier indication of cash flow positivity a few quarters after EBITDA positivity to be accurate. Apparently, RE forecasts now have 150 M SEK.
In my opinion, as an initial reaction, revenue forecasts for this year will be slightly lowered, but EBITDA forecasts will even be slightly raised. The previously indicated level was achieved with surprisingly low revenue. The SE management apparently wants to stick to this - to deliver what they have said before. Now it will be interesting to hear the management’s reasoning as to why the ramp-up has progressed a bit slower than expected - is it just about timings?
So, the strengthening of the crown against the euro and the dollar weakens the top and bottom line. Otherwise, in my opinion, it’s quite well in line with expectations, even though the ramp-up is slower than expected.
The most important part for me here, automotive organic adjusted growth 42% 
Behavioural research is self-sustaining but is not currently growing.
Top line figures look weaker than expected at face, coming in 11% short of Redeye’s estimates, almost solely attributed to larger than expected FX effects.
Redeye notes that Smart Eye’s Q2 reflected underlying solid performance, with Smart Eye reaching a key milestone in posting positive EBITDA for the first time in the company’s listed history.
As such, we believe that the underlying net sales from automotive, and the strong growth rate of 42% align well with our assumptions, and the business unit seems to be progressing according to plan. On the other hand, only five additional car models went into production during the quarter, below our estimate of twelve. While this is slower than expected, the fact that automotive sales adjusted for FX effects still came in roughly in line with our forecast is impressive and bodes well for the future. Management states a positive outlook for H2, with license revenue expected to be the main growth driver.
Oleellinen nosto. Pienemmällä tuotantomäärällä (car models in production) kokonaismyynti vastasi valuuttamuutos huomioiden odotuksia. Näin ollen voidaan kysyä että onko ASP korkeampi kuin laskelmissa? Jos näin osoittautuu, voi tuleville vuosille muhia myönteinen yllätys. Toki muuttuvana tekijänä on myös se että kuinka monia malleja monistetaan aina noista malleista…
I treated myself to a coffee bun without a butter eye, somewhat deceiving myself, for the quarter’s performance. Some things surprised me positively, and in some areas, we fell quite short of my expectations. I noticed in the spring that new Smart Eye models are still coming to market very slowly, and the Hyundai Group’s share of licensing revenues continued to grow. Q2 was not particularly good for Hyundai’s Smart Eye models, but now Q3 looks better, especially as Americans are now rushing to acquire hybrid and electric cars, as support for electric and hybrid car purchases is ending at the end of September. Hopefully, TACO is TACO in this matter too, and we avoid a sales decline at the end of the year.
Even during this quarter, we haven’t seen a storm of new Smart Eye models, but I have identified the Hyundai IONIQ 6 for Korea, KIA EV4 for Europe, AUDI E5, Audi Q6L, Audi A6L, and Audi A5L for China, and production may also begin for Buick Electra L7 and Hyundai Elexion in China. In addition, geographical expansion has occurred for Hyundai Palisade in America, Kia Tasman in Australia, and production of Kia EV5 may begin for the European market. However, a lot remains for the last quarter to reach those 40 new car models.
Martin stated in the Q1 earnings release that Q2 would see significant automotive industry revenues outside of licensing revenues. I must have misunderstood or something happened, as this was not the case. Licensing revenues aligned well with my thoughts. The Behavioral Research side has been somewhat concerning and continues to be so, as a significant portion of the market comes from the US, and I can’t quite read the situation there. Based on the results, it’s quite tolerable, even though growth comes from Europe.
A pleasant surprise was that, for the past quarter’s performance, we reached the promised EBITDA positivity, and the operational cash flow is already starting to show that it can indeed become positive once more cars are put into production, from brands other than just Korean ones.
A big jump in licensing revenues will come when, starting from July 26, the law mandates cameras to monitor drivers in Europe. It’s a bit unclear to me when this will be reflected in Smart’s sales. Cars must, of course, be manufactured during Q2, but will we still see a cycle where cars are registered before the deadline, and cars compliant with the new regulation only go on sale later?
Live Q: Smart Eye, just started
Hold on, hold on.
My earlier understanding was that about 40 models would go into production this year.. meaning 25 models would be left for the end of the year.
Now Martin says that 55-65 models will still go into production by the end of the year. Am I interpreting this correctly? Ping @Tuulipuku
If so, revenue will explode already by the end of the year, and likely in Q4.
Martin: Europe had really good development for us this quarter. Other regions were maybe more like a continuation of previous ramp-up.
Jacob: Do yo expect Europe to continue (ramp-up) into Q3-Q4?
Martin: Yeah, Europe is going to go from being a small part of the total volume to become the major part of total volumes as we get closer and closer to GSR.
And Martin notes the ketchup bottle effect, which would start to unfold from Q1/26 onwards.
Really large increases, especially the last two quarters before the legislation kicks in. That is a let’s say ketschup effect..
We believed (earlier) that we would have a more gradual increase. And now we see. Then when we look at the sort of, say, the end result that the actual, how it’s actually playing out, is more.. everything coming at once there.. Q1, Q2 Q3 next year. Yeah.
To summarize, the increases are significant already by the end of the year, but according to Martin, things will really start to explode from the beginning of next year before the legislation changes, and the full European impact will be from Q3/26 onwards.
So, a slightly subdued Q3/25 is likely still coming, however, with EBITDA being clearly positive. Q4/25 EBIT will likely already be around zero. From Q1/26 onwards, profits will start to be made in increasing amounts.
Martin: It’s going to be like the Greek dance Zorbas – starting slow and going faster and faster towards the end.
Jacob: Okay, that’s a good metaphor.
Jacob: How’s your timeline looking?
Martin: We’re in a good spot. I mean we’re delivering software. There’s no.. it’s not difficult to deliver more software. We just increase the zeros on the invoice.
I felt a similar pang in my chest, and somewhere else it was mentioned that Europe would still be the main market this year. I don’t believe that so many new car models will come to Europe during the rest of the year, so it must mean that one of the manufacturers would adopt Smart for all their models already this year?
There’s no rush yet, but there will be soon, to have time to go Ouzo or Raki shopping and learn Zorba’s steps, so we can keep up with the pace.
This guess had its wings clipped, meaning the partner is someone else.