CES came and went. The Smart Eye crew seemed to be there with a good vibe. There were some nice announcements too; I was particularly pleased to see them getting pre-programmed onto Renesas chips. Renesas boards are used at least in Toyota, Honda, and Bosch ADAS systems.
Qualcomm signed two deals during the trade show. A software-defined vehicles era agreement with Hyundai, which also includes ADAS, and an intelligent cockpit agreement with the Volkswagen Group. ADAS will come to the VW Group as a collaboration between Cariad and Bosch. In connection with the Q3 interim report, Martin mentioned that there are large RFQs (Requests for Quotation) on the table, and here are at least two big options. Hopefully, they succeed. I can’t say whether these will come as Tier 1 or Tier 2 through Hyundai Mobis and Bosch. Seeing Machines does not have any Tier 1 design wins yet.
I wrote in October that there might be a hiccup in Smart Eye models currently in production as a result of the end of US EV subsidies, and that’s exactly what happened. For Hyundai, the collapse in EV sales was offset by the strong sales success of the new Palisade model, but in my estimation, GM’s sales fell short of Q3 levels. It seems sales in Korea also fell slightly short of Q3, meaning Q4 growth will likely come from Europe and China, which look better but are harder to estimate. AIS growth should be significant, and regarding the aftermarket product, it was encouraging to hear in the trade show update that intoxicated driving detection has already been included in deliveries for a couple of quarters.
GM comparison Q4 - Q3. If Super Cruise is not standard, the share of cars for sale was searched on Cars.com with the keyword “Super Cruise,” and an attempt was made to estimate the take rate column. The first columns show total sales by car model.
| Model | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Take rate (Q4 2025) | Take rate (Q3 2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chevrolet Blazer EV | 1 812 | 8 089 | 290 | 1 296 |
| Chevrolet Equinox EV | 5 111 | 25 085 | 256 | 1 254 |
| Chevrolet Silverado EV | 1 896 | 3 940 | 1 896 | 3 940 |
| Chevrolet Suburban | 16 140 | 12 606 | 1 937 | 1 513 |
| Chevrolet Tahoe | 28 520 | 25 587 | 3 422 | 3 070 |
| Chevrolet Traverse | 44 646 | 38 853 | 13 394 | 11 656 |
| GMC Acadia | 13 365 | 12 485 | 2 673 | 2 497 |
| GMC Hummer EV (pickup+SUV) | 2 555 | 5 246 | 2 555 | 5 246 |
| GMC Sierra EV | 1 849 | 3 374 | 1 849 | 3 374 |
| GMC Yukon | 24 855 | 19 991 | 7 457 | 5 997 |
| Cadillac CT5 | 4 393 | 4 000 | 4 393 | 4 000 |
| Cadillac Escalade (ICE) | 13 659 | 11 332 | 13 659 | 11 332 |
| Cadillac Escalade IQ (EV) | 2 085 | 2 264 | 2 085 | 2 264 |
| Cadillac Lyriq | 4 345 | 7 309 | 4 345 | 7 309 |
| Cadillac Optiq | 2 361 | 4 886 | 2 361 | 4 886 |
| Cadillac Vistiq | 2 210 | 3 924 | 2 210 | 3 924 |
| Buick Enclave | 11 130 | 8 239 | 2 919 | 2 161 |
| TOTAL | 180 932 | 197 210 | 67 701 | 75 719 |
Hyundai USA sales. Estimated Smart Eye deliveries by trim levels in the take rate column if DMS is not standard.
| Model | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Take rate Q4 | Take Rate (Q3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tucson | 68991 | 51929 | 32426 | 24407 |
| Santa Fe | 40244 | 37082 | 30183 | 27812 |
| Palisade | 31147 | 35585 | 29590 | 10676 |
| IONIQ 9 | 1012 | 3164 | 1012 | 3164 |
| IONIQ 5 | 5948 | 21999 | 5948 | 21999 |
| Santa Cruz | 4866 | 6412 | 1460 | 1924 |
| Genesis GV70 | 9750 | 9592 | 9750 | 9592 |
| Genesis GV80 | 5750 | 6831 | 5750 | 6831 |
| Genesis GV60 | 903 | 968 | 903 | 968 |
| Genesis G80 | 937 | 910 | 937 | 910 |
| TOTAL | 169548 | 174472 | 117959 | 108283 |
So, according to this estimate, Hyundai would see as much growth as GM shrinks.