Sea Limited - The New Frontier?

Sea Ltd. is a technology giant operating in Southeast Asia. The company has three subsidiaries that focus on different aspects of its business: Garena (video games), Shopee (e-commerce), and SeaMoney (fintech).

A few weeks ago, several ASEAN states, such as Australia, China, and Singapore, signed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement. The agreement supports free trade and facilitates cross-border business for international companies. The agreement has even been called the world’s largest trade agreement, as it includes 30% of the world’s GDP. RCEP advances Sea’s goals of being a Southeast Asian technology company. Now that Sea Ltd. has also reached a $100 billion market capitalization, I think it’s high time to start a thread on the forum!

Simplified breakdown:

Garena

-Publishes Tencent’s games in Southeast Asia.

-Garena also makes games. Garena Free Fire is popular in Asia and South America. The game was the third most-watched game on YouTube in 2020.

-Garena’s subsidiary Phoenix Labs is the company’s AAA game developer. The company was founded by former Riot Games (League of Legends) employees. The company has recently started a multi-project model and is the creator of the game Dauntless.

-Garena is the company’s only profitable subsidiary. Q3: “Adjusted EBITDA was US$584.5 million, up 119.8% year-on-year.”. Garena’s profits are mainly invested in Shopee’s operations.

Shopee
-E-commerce giant in Southeast Asia and Taiwan. E-commerce trends in Southeast Asia are very promising:

-The Shopee Live service can be compared to Alibaba’s Taobao Live. For example, a few weeks ago, Adidas held a 30-minute workout session on the service, where customers could win prizes and buy Shopee-exclusive Adidas products.

-Shopee has grown strongly and become the leading e-commerce platform in the region. According to App Annie, among Southeast Asian e-commerce platforms, Shopee has the most downloads, the most monthly active users, and the highest total time spent in the app.

Market share trends

-It should be noted that profitability is not yet central to Shopee’s aggressive “expansion” strategy. Currently, Shopee is burning a lot of cash. However, the company’s management recently mentioned that Shopee might soon be profitable. Shopee is a key part of the company’s future vision.

SeaMoney
-The company’s Fintech arm, which just received a Digital Banking license in Singapore (to be implemented in 2022).

-The company is also highly likely to be included in next year’s Digital Banking concessions in Malaysia and the Philippines.

-The synergistic effects of the Fintech arm are promising between Shopee and the Shopee Pay e-wallet. This also supports the adoption of digital banking.

Tencent is also a shareholder in the company. In addition, management owns over 20% of the company, and the shares of the company’s CEO, Forrest Li, give him controlling power. This can be compared, for example, to Google’s A, B, and C shares and the controlling power of Sergey Brin and Larry Page. In my opinion, the management is among the best in the world, and most of them have been involved in the company’s operations since its early days.

Here’s a good article about the company’s and management’s history: Forrest Li’s Sea Ltd Surges As Pandemic Drives Digitalization Across ASEAN

Sea Limited is in an interesting market position because, unlike many other developing markets, Southeast Asia is largely politically and economically stable. However, the stock has risen rapidly, and many expectations have been placed on it. I myself joined in the summer. Are there any other sledders on the forum?

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Here’s the juiciest news from this forum last month.

Garena Free Fire had the highest gross sales in India (mobile games) in 2020.
https://twitter.com/GemWire/status/1350072610378321921

According to Apptopia, Shopee was the world’s second most used online retail store and the second most used retail mobile application in 2020.

https://twitter.com/Apptopia/status/1354532590145990658/photo/1

The company acquired a controlling stake in an Indonesian bank. Before this, it only had digital banking rights in Singapore (to be implemented in 2022), but through this, it now also has them in Indonesia.

In my opinion, the Philippines and Malaysia are likely to be the next DB (Digital Banking) targets.
https://twitter.com/trinityalloc/status/1349364251224375296
The company has expanded its operations in Brazil. Shopee surpassed Amazon in Brazil based on monthly users in December. MercadoLibre remains the main player in the region.
https://twitter.com/f_potkin/status/1353619331305725952

So the news has been mostly positive within just one month. Next, our attention turns to Q1, which is presumably on March 1st.

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Monster Q2 results and raised guidance. No rush to consider selling here either

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210817005461/en/Sea-Limited-Reports-Second-Quarter-2021-Results

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Huh, here’s a comprehensive thread discussing Sea Limited and also Grab. :slight_smile:

The tweeter is quite positive about these companies in the medium and long term. Their optimism is based on the Southeast Asian region’s demographics and economic growth potential. Significant economic tailwinds are expected in the region up to 2030 and beyond, which can help these companies succeed.

https://x.com/GabGrowth/status/1882479274445430948

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Rest of the tweet thread

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This is a hefty thread again, so set aside some time for it. :slight_smile:

A bit similar to the thread above, which features these two companions.

“Past, Present, Future”

https://x.com/GabGrowth/status/1895473266829189261

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Rest of the tweet thread

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Sea Limited significantly increased its revenue. All business segments grew, and profitability also performed well. E-commerce volume surpassed previous records, and financial services rapidly expanded their lending, etc.

In pre-market, it was at least initially strongly up. :slight_smile:

https://x.com/ConsensusGurus/status/1896888065055924339

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EDIT:

Illustrative chart

https://x.com/finchat_io/status/1896942472745619724
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Looks pretty good regarding the bars and curves below. :slight_smile: The company’s YTD is currently over 20 percent, so the good progress has been noted among investors.

https://x.com/DTF_Capital/status/1896568899778543925

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Revenue and profitability matters are in pretty good shape. The tweet discusses that rising costs could become a problem. :thinking:

https://x.com/ondrejslunecko/status/1898167647390646616

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Here is a comprehensive Twitter thread about Sea Limited, which is really worth taking the time to read. :slight_smile:

Of course, there’s some repetition compared to previous threads, but also new information. :slight_smile:

https://x.com/micscofie1d/status/1903806976619893080

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Rest of the Twitter thread

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Sea Group grew well in the first quarter, especially in terms of revenue, gross profit, and profitability.

The Shopee platform’s e-commerce achieved record results in both order volumes and GMV, and the company maintained its leading position in both Asia and Brazil. Growth was based on competitive pricing, service quality, and reportedly, content development.

The company’s financial services now operate under the name Monee, and their results grew significantly with a moderate risk level. The digital entertainment segment also performed well, especially Garena and Free Fire, whose popularity grew significantly thanks to some NARUTO collaboration.

At least the company’s management says they believe in achieving the full-year targets.

https://x.com/Earnings_Time/status/1922239469228331504
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Company Materials

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Here’s Sean’s reading visualized. :slight_smile:

https://x.com/EconomyApp/status/1922326218042703937

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https://x.com/wolfofharcourt/status/1922241662706692200

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Tomorrow, Sea Limited will release its H1 results at approximately 2:30 PM.

Consensus for the upcoming results:
Revenue $4.97 billion, +31% YoY
EPS: $0.73, +423% YoY

I’m following with a small position myself and hope that in the big picture things move forward, the market dips, and I can get more at a cheaper price. :cowboy_hat_face:

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Sea Limited’s earnings fell short of analysts’ expectations, but revenue, on the other hand, was a positive surprise. Shopee continued its strong growth and set a new record, performing particularly well in the Brazilian market, where profitability was reportedly also in order.

Monee grew its business, and Garena expects over 30 percent growth next year, with Free Fire holding its ground globally.

https://x.com/earnings_guy/status/1955216085130633480
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Company’s own materials

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Here are a few more highlights from Sea Limited and its results. :slight_smile:

Here’s more on the company’s performance by category.

https://x.com/fiscal_ai/status/1955273087345479804
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Here’s an excellent comparison table, which also shows the beats and misses. :slight_smile:

https://x.com/StockMarketNerd/status/1955260078535094746
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Many find data visualizations appealing, so I’m including this one:

https://x.com/EconomyApp/status/1955269570832273726
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A somewhat thought-provoking tweet about Sea Limited. :slight_smile:

https://x.com/emergingmktbull/status/1971353320670494867


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Sea’s founder and CEO Forrest Li interviewed by Nicolai Tangen of the Norwegian Oil Fund. Duration 49min.

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Tomorrow, Sea Limited will release its Q3 results. Again, impressive growth figures are expected, which, in terms of valuation, shouldn’t leave much to be desired. It will also be interesting to see how the geographical distribution plays out, and whether SE has gained more foothold in Brazil.

My own forecast is that there will be a small EPS miss and revenue will exceed expectations.

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The Quartr forecasts above were so wrong that the EPS consensus estimate was 0.74, not the aforementioned 0.95. But to the results:

As I suspected, revenue will exceed expectations and EPS will fall short. I admit, however, that the EPS miss was larger than I initially thought.

Overall, another very beautiful quarter! Revenue grew +38% YoY, which is quite astonishing for a company of this size. Shopee’s GMV growth guidance was raised to >25% (previously 20%). This is the most important driver for SE as an investment case.

Overall

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Shopee
The spearhead is moving like a train on its tracks.

Monee


Garena
The cash cow pumps out steady cash flow, which other segments can then splurge on. :smiling_face_with_sunglasses:

In the markets, it seems that investors are somewhat spooked by the earnings per share falling short of forecasts. In reality, when a growth company like this puts all its money into growth, while still making a profit, I am not worried about the results of individual quarters. As I wrote in Melin’s thread, Melin’s management stated that there is a market to be captured now, so growth should be pursued. Profitability can be refined later, which both companies have a track record of.

So, was the EPS miss bad? From the forecasts, probably yes, but still EPS growth of 142% YoY. It’s not a completely bad performance, however. I am a happy shareholder and hope for a slight dip so I can add to my small position.

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A bit more aggressive share buyback?

Sea Limited just sent a fresh ripple through the market, authorizing a share repurchase program of up to US$1 billion that could be interpreted as a quiet vote of confidence in its long-term trajectory.

Sea Limited’s board has approved a share repurchase program, authorizing the use of up to USD 1 billion for the acquisition of its own shares!

The market has given some slack over the past 3 months, but the company’s management seems to have confidence in the company’s long-term prospects.

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A tweeter reports noticing that SPX parcel lockers are everywhere in Singapore. Life reportedly became easier immediately; no need to pay for home delivery or walk far to pick up packages.

According to the tweeter, with Shopee’s volumes, this saves a huge amount of so-called last-mile costs and makes their logistics clearly stronger and more attractive than competitors.

SPX Express is Shopee’s own logistics service, a subsidiary of Sea Limited.

More about this in the tweet below :slight_smile:

https://x.com/GabGrowth/status/1994039458539479489



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Below is a quick and fresh look at the company, where Sea Limited is being hailed as Southeast Asia’s top company.

The tweet particularly highlights that it has a massive user base, multiple business lines, and strong growth ahead.

In the tweeter’s view, the market is undervaluing the firm and its long-term potential is significant. :slightly_smiling_face:

https://x.com/TheRayMyers/status/2002442199158411739


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