That Petri is a brisk fellow - here is the company report as well
Sanoma’s Q1 development was largely in line with expectations, although the profitability improvement in Media Finland was a positive surprise. We have not made major changes to our forecasts, but we incorporated a recent small acquisition. We expect significant earnings growth from Sanoma this year thanks to market growth in the learning business, and the medium-term earnings growth outlook is also good.
Quoted from the report:
Earnings growth to continue in the coming years
We have not made material changes to the longer-term forecasts, but they rose slightly supported by the acquisition. We expect Sanoma’s net sales to grow in both segments in 2027 supported by market growth, which will also flow efficiently into earnings growth. Overall, our average adjusted EBIT growth forecast for 2026-2028 is at a good level of 7% and in line with the high single-digit earnings growth targeted by the company.
I was looking at Sanoma’s target prices after the Q1 results. With a quick glance, I found the ones listed below. Other brokerage firms have likely updated their target prices as well. In any case, everyone seems to agree that the outlook is good!
Here is Juho Toratti’s analysis of Sanoma following Q1
Sanoma started the year 2024 strongly. High expectations have been placed on the current year, as curriculum reforms in Learning’s largest market areas are estimated to accelerate Sanoma’s growth. In the first quarter, the company delivered revenue slightly better than the consensus forecast compiled by LSEG Workspace, thanks to the learning business and especially its main markets in the Netherlands, Spain, and Poland. Growth expectations have been focused particularly on Spain and Poland, so the success in the first quarter in these markets builds confidence that growth will only accelerate during the seasonally stronger second and third quarters.
Above are two videos that I believe provide good insights into Sanoma’s future outlook. CEO Kolkman paints a credible growth path for Sanoma’s coming years, and the first signs of growth should already be visible during H2 of this year.
The market, however, hasn’t watched the videos yet—or has watched them but doesn’t believe what it sees and hears. The coming months will be interesting for the share price development. If the company provides indications of growth during the upcoming quarters, the share price performance will likely be very different from what it has been over the past year. Personally, I believe in the company’s story and have significantly increased my position during the early part of the year. Time will tell if this becomes a hit or a miss.
At the end of the interview, we asked the company’s management what they believe makes Sanoma an attractive investment right now. The answer is clear:
”Driven by the Learning business, we have a clear growth path for the years 2026–2030. This is already reflected in the outlook for the current year 2026, which points to a clear acceleration in earnings growth.”
”In addition, growth potential is created by the opening of the gambling market in Finland in mid-2027, as well as potential acquisitions in the K-12 (perus- ja toinen aste) learning business,” sums up Sanoma’s CEO Rob Kolkman.
Note!
IR-monitoring is a channel by SalkunRakentaja and Sijoittaja.fi for corporate partners to share background and analytical articles, as well as other interesting investor information. The article is part of a commercial collaboration with the company. The article does not contain investment recommendations.
