Electricity Sales Contracts and Their Prices

[ynjevi]

The average exchange price for January was 14.72/kWh, plus the margin.

[LeBaron]

Regarding electricity futures, it looks like once we reach the windy period in March, a level of approximately 6 cents for fixed-term contracts will be realistic for the following year; in the summer, there will likely be deals starting with 5. In 2028, we will continue at a slightly lower level than this. The recommendation is therefore a one-year deal in the spring, and if you are feeling particularly frugal, go with spot pricing until June and, just before Midsummer, sign a 6-month fixed-term contract to start in mid-September.

[Parsa]

@Parsa

@Parsa

I have been using fixed-term contracts for quite a while now, and as an owner of a large, slightly over 200m2 electrically heated house and a 60m2 separate heated garage, essentially nothing else matters but how much electricity costs during the winter frosts. At the turn of the year, I uploaded all my data to Liukuri, and here is a summary from the past 4 years:

2020: +€213.27, fixed price 4.43 c/kWh, average spot price 3.47 c/kWh, my spot price 3.80 c/kWh

2021: -€1,086.93, fixed price 6.69 c/kWh, average spot price 8.97 c/kWh, my spot price 9.74 c/kWh

2022: -€3,040.99, fixed price 6.69 c/kWh, average spot price 18.81 c/kWh, my spot price 18.66 c/kWh

2023: -€305.16, fixed price 6.69 c/kWh, average spot price 6.66 c/kWh, my spot price 8.00 c/kWh

Savings with a fixed price over four years: €4,219.81

We’ll see what happens this year, as I “had to” take an 8.49 c/kWh contract for a year. On the other hand, I have significantly managed to reduce my electricity consumption in recent years. My fixed-price product probably won’t turn into a loss yet due to the success of past years, so it’s quite clear what I’ll choose if I just have the option. If I could set up some contract starting with a six for the coming years during the summer, I could continue my somewhat carefree electricity consumption. I never want to look at the electricity price when I turn on the sauna!

e: Let’s add here that the spot comparison was made with the cheapest margins and in reality, the difference would be slightly larger. And here is the data for the beginning of the year. Wow, a lot of electricity used as the frosts just kept going and going! Savings with fixed so far €230!

e2: Adding my own spot prices

2024 is now complete, and so there is five years of data on going with fixed contracts. We ended up slightly around the price of the cheapest possible spot margin when the fixed contract was 8.59 c/kWh. My own spot average without margin would have been 7.29 c/kWh.

Savings with a fixed price over five years: €3,978.29

The coming year will also continue with a fixed contract. The savings from -21 and -22 still warm the heart, and who knows if similar years are still ahead. And the sauna heats up without glancing at the electricity price.

2025 was clearly a loss-making year for fixed. The fixed price was a bit tight at 8.59 c/kWh.

Savings with a fixed price over six years: €3,271.06

2026 has started favorably for fixed (now fixed 7.49 c/kWh) and savings so far estimated at approx. €600. If it continues anything like this, the fixed price will have already proven to be clearly cheaper for this whole year by the end of February.

No one has managed to convert me into a supporter of spot-priced electricity yet. Last year was particularly cheap for spot prices and the winter was mild, but as can be seen from the years of monitoring, the theoretical cheapness of spot electricity varies quite a lot from year to year. For an electric heater and electric car owner like me, nothing else really matters but how much electricity costs between December and March. Everything else is noise.

[Avokado]

I also made some good savings by being on fixed-price contracts in '21 and '22 when there were several months where spot price electricity was 30c/kWh. Then in '24 and '25, I got good savings from the spot market. Now it looks like for the first time, things have hit the rocks.

The biggest problem is that night prices have risen. Previously, you could get electricity at night for a maximum of about 10c/kWh, and now it has been somewhere between 12-18. So that’s a 50% increase, and since the majority of my consumption is at night, that stings.

Apparently, district heating electric boilers are pushing up that floor price. Running district heating electric boilers at prices of 12-18 is completely insane. Somewhere natural gas is being burned; it generates electricity that is transmitted and used to heat water, which is then transmitted to apartment buildings. The efficiency of this district heating is miserable when the water circulates through kilometers of piping. We might get 60-70% from electricity to heat in district heating, while with a detached house’s air source heat pump (ILP), the percentage is something like 150-300%. This probably isn’t the green transition that was ordered, but this is what we got.

Edit: The only positive thing is that I’m getting a great value for the wood I’m burning. Several winters went by without me burning a single load. Now the fire is roaring every morning and evening.