SAAB - Launchers and Submarines

Tonight, after the market closed, some major news dropped. There have been plenty of smaller news items, but they haven’t really moved the share price; you’d expect something to happen on Monday. And for understandable reasons, many details are being left undisclosed.

Machine translation:

Saab receives defense equipment orders
Saab has today received an order from a Western government for several defense systems and equipment. The order value is approximately 4.3 billion SEK and deliveries are scheduled for 2025-2027.

The order includes systems and equipment from Saab’s business areas Dynamics and Surveillance.

“We are proud to be able to contribute to our customers’ security and continue to see great interest in our world-leading products and solutions,” says Saab’s CEO Micael Johansson.

Due to the nature of the industry, customer-related circumstances, and national security interests, no further information will be provided regarding this order or the customer.

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I asked in another thread about the reasons for the share price rise. Thanks to @PorssiPatruuna, who linked a nice news story. Here is a screenshot, translated into Finnish. The rest is behind a paywall, but you can surely get the gist of it from that.

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Saab and MBDA to strengthen cooperation
Sweden and France have expressed their desire to strengthen their defense cooperation with a new strategic partnership, signed on January 30th as part of French President Emmanuel Macron’s state visit to Sweden. Anti-tank and air defense have been identified as priority areas for cooperation.

In this context, a major new step has been taken in relations between the countries. On January 31st, the CEOs of Saab and MBDA, Micael Johansson and Eric Béranger, expressed their willingness to support this process in the fields of anti-tank and air defense, which are particularly important for the armed forces of both countries in the context of high-intensity conflicts. They signed letters of intent to strengthen cooperation between their companies in these two areas at a Business Forum held in the presence of high-ranking French and Swedish officials.

Macron visited Sweden and put pen to paper. I believe and hope that there will be many more of these deals with many nations.

A snippet from a long investor letter translated with a translator.

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I copied this from the defense thread over here as well, as the story concerns Saab so much.

And dear colleagues and the rest of the folks. Please do join the discussion, so it doesn’t turn into a total monologue.

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Saab has received an order for the AT4 anti-tank weapon from the NATO Support and Procurement Agency (NSPA). The value of the order is approximately 63 million euros (approx. 700 million SEK) and deliveries will take place in 2026-2027. The order was booked in Q4 2023.

The AT4 series includes a range of easily maneuverable, lightweight, and disposable weapons designed for straightforward use by a single soldier. The AT4 is capable of countering tanks, heavy combat vehicles, and threats in structures and fortifications, and it also serves to secure fixed installations, supply points, and other critical assets.

Read more about the AT4: AT4 Family | Saab

A relatively small order in euro terms, but an order nonetheless. It won’t lift the share price yet, but it’s great nonetheless.

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Today Q4.

https://x.com/borsredaktion/status/1755842705790304511?s=46&t=i2cVXl7qbQSvs-RzI0qJbg

Medium-term target for organic growth 15%
In 2024 organic growth 12-16%
Dividend for the past financial year 6.40 kr
Earnings missed estimates.

https://x.com/saab/status/1755842505763967454?s=46&t=i2cVXl7qbQSvs-RzI0qJbg

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The order book doubled in 2023, and growth is visible far into the future, so it is largely a matter of managing that growth. Saab’s products involve a high degree of manual craftsmanship, and any increase in production requires more hands.

In previous years, the challenge was more about finding engineers—every generation has a limited number of intelligent people. In this regard, the CEO stated today that more people have recognized Saab’s purpose and mission as a company, meaning their attractiveness as an employer has improved.

Saab’s revenue largely consists of small and medium-sized orders, and the company’s guidance is based on these. This means that potential “mega-deals”—which, due to their size, often involve high-level political decisions—would significantly alter the growth forecast from its current level.


The two-hour Q4 presentation begins at approximately the 10-minute mark:

The presentation reveals, among other things, that a new production site for the Sirius Compact product will be established in Finland and that there is an order for over 600 GLSDB units, with more to come. The range was stated as 160km, while the brochures state 150km.

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Key Highlights

Q4 2023 Order bookings were SEK 31,501 million (29,866), which includes SEK 6 billion from the revaluation of indexation clauses. Growth in medium-sized orders was 57% and small orders 19%.

Group sales were SEK 16,122 million (13,866), and organic sales grew 16%, driven by most business areas.

EBITDA increased to SEK 2,032 million (1,883), and the EBITDA margin was 12.6% (13.6). Operating income improved to SEK 1,420 million (1,314) thanks to strong contributions from Surveillance and Kockums.

The operating margin for the quarter was 8.8% (9.5). Net income was SEK 1,254 million (1,154) and earnings per share was SEK 9.08 (8.32), an increase of 9%. Operational cash flow improved to SEK 3,691 million (1,682) during the quarter, driven by higher milestone payments.
Net liquidity position was SEK 2.3 billion (2.4) at the end of the period.

The Board of Directors proposes to the Annual General Meeting a dividend of SEK 6.40 (5.30) per share for 2023, to be paid in two equal installments.

Outlook for 2024: organic sales growth of 12-16%, operating income growth exceeding organic sales growth, and positive operational cash flow. The medium-term target for organic sales growth is now raised to approximately 15% (CAGR), from the previous approximately 10% for the period 2023-2027.

Presentation of Saab’s Q4 2023 results and strategy execution update: Saab’s President and CEO Micael Johansson and CFO and Deputy CEO Christian Luiga will present Saab’s fourth quarter and full-year 2023 results today and host a strategy execution update.

The year-end report and presentations from the event are available at: www.saab.com/investors/reports-and-presentations

To my eyes, many of the figures and details look good at first glance, as far as I understand these things. The dividend is quite measly, though. It’s up from last year, but still rather small. Typical Swedish teasing :wink:

I’ll have to try and read through this more carefully tonight.

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I’ve highlighted a few points I found relevant and interesting from the press conference and, at the bottom, from the Reuters article. My English is a bit rusty and my “investment English” even worse, so I’m relying on a machine translator.

I could have picked out many other points, such as interesting details about weapons, weapon systems, and orders, but I decided on this selection.

Micael Johansson - CEO
We had a very strong year, and we are now looking at our current market position, which generated nearly 78 billion SEK in orders.

And this is an order intake that isn’t based on so-called mega-deals. So it’s a lot of medium-sized orders and also small orders. And of course, we are also chasing large orders, but we aren’t building our entire future on them. So this is really strong.

Our organic growth was nearly 23% last year.

Operating profit grew more than revenue, which we have always said would happen, and it was 30%.

We have now received permission to establish a company in India and own 100% of that company ourselves—the first defense company to receive such permission. And this will be an important ammunition factory for the production of the Carl-Gustaf.

And of course, we have continued recruiting. We added a net total of 2,500 people to our company last year.
As I mentioned, we invested 1.3 billion SEK more than in '22, and we will continue making quite large investments over the next two years, at least in building up capacity.

Christian Luiga - CFO and Deputy CEO

We have a solid balance sheet. It looks very similar to last year’s. We also had net liquidity of about 2.3 billion SEK last year. So it feels like reporting on the same situation. Due to our financial stability and position, as well as our earnings growth, the board has proposed to the Annual General Meeting that the dividend be increased by 21% to 6.40 SEK, compared to last year’s 5.30 SEK.

Source: https://seekingalpha.com/

REUTERS
During early trading, shares hit an all-time high of 742 SEK, a 6.8% increase, before the stock leveled off slightly. The share value has more than tripled since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

For the 2023-2027 period, Saab raised its organic sales growth target to around 15%, up from the previous 10% target.

Agency Partners analyst Sash Tusa said the growth in defense demand appeared structural as European countries faced major defense spending requirements.

He added that the company appeared “really well-positioned for what we consider to be a likely decade-long defense build-up.”

Source: https://www.reuters.com/

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New target prices:

Danske Bank: 845 SEK
Carnegie: 800 SEK

Price at the time of writing: 766 SEK


In the coming months, it should become clear who wins the Dutch submarine competition. A decision on the Philippines’ fighter jet acquisition is also expected at any moment; the issues here are either the country’s defense budget or Sweden’s export licensing process due to the country’s human rights situation.

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Saab receives RBS 70 NG order from Canada
Saab has received an order from the Canadian government for the short-range air defense system RBS 70 NG. The order value is approximately 227 million Canadian dollars (1.8 billion SEK), and deliveries will begin during 2024.

The order includes all necessary equipment for the operation of the RBS 70 NG, including firing units, missiles, transport vehicles, training, and support.

RBS 70 NG is a short-range air defense system manufactured by Saab. It is characterized by its unjammable laser beam guidance and automatic tracking technology. Saab has RBS 70 NG customers worldwide, including Brazil, the Czech Republic, and Latvia.

This kind of (I condensed the essentials) press release dropped in after the market closed. The order value is about 150 million euros, so in my opinion, it’s fair that it wasn’t published during the day. The share price has risen handsomely lately, and I’m sure we’ll be heading up again tomorrow :slightly_smiling_face:

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This has been dragged on for ages:
https://news.tv5.com.ph/breaking/read/multi-role-fighters-philippines-sweden-discuss-multi-role-fighter-acquisition

The Philippines is close to sealing a deal with Sweden to acquire a squadron of 12 multi-role fighters worth 61 billion pesos, a defense spokesman said on Friday.

Director Arsenio Andolong said delegates from the Philippines and Sweden held a series of meetings, to finalize the a deal to acquire materiel and equipment to upgrade military capabilities.
Andolong said both sides are expected to sign an agreement by next month in Sweden.


Elsewhere, Thailand is choosing between the F-16V and Gripen E. The decision timeline is unknown, but according to some reports, it will be this spring.

https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/gripen-thailand-units-aircraft/

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Four more Gripens to Hungary.

This is a bit of a “how should I feel about this” situation. Hungary is one of the EU’s a**holes. Some kind of horse-trading. But as a shareholder, let’s welcome this with joy, while gritting our teeth a bit.

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Massive anti-tank weapon deal to Poland:

https://www.saab.com/newsroom/press-releases/2024/saab-signs-major-contract-for-carl-gustaf-with-poland

FM7lnaKWQAsylyX

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Yep. Business is booming, and it’s no wonder with those lobbyists from our eastern neighbor lobbying day in and day out. You’d have to be a bit thick not to fill the stocks with shooters.

And new target prices, please. The old ones lasted three weeks and we’ve already blown past them. Today’s close 854.80 SEK

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I totally missed this piece of news. I noticed it almost by accident. So, Saab is apparently splitting its shares into four. That definitely works for me. Today we hit another new ATH, and the price is already approaching 900 crowns.

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And it’s been a great run. YTD 45%. I’m definitely enjoying this :slightly_smiling_face:

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I’ll continue the monologue.

Orders are raining in at a steady pace and the share price is liking it. Records are being smashed week after week.

Saab receives Carl-Gustaf order from NATO Support and Procurement Agency
Saab has received an order from the NATO Support and Procurement Agency (NSPA) for the Carl-Gustaf® man-portable multi-role weapon system. The order value is approximately EUR 60 million (SEK 700 million) and the contract period is 2024–2027.

The order has been placed on behalf of four NATO member nations within the framework agreement for Carl-Gustaf between Saab and the NSPA, including ammunition and equipment.

“We are proud that the NSPA once again has chosen our reliable, dependable and effective Carl-Gustaf system,” says Görgen Johansson, head of Saab’s business area Dynamics.

Carl-Gustaf has a proven track record on the battlefield, providing the effectiveness soldiers need. Carl-Gustaf’s wide range of ammunition types makes it flexible and capable of handling any situation, whether it is to destroy an armoured vehicle or structure, or illuminating the battlefield during night operations.

The Carl-Gustaf system is supplied to over 40 countries around the world.
Read more: Carl-Gustaf Recoilless Multi-Purpose Weapon System

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Saab lost the Dutch submarine tender.
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/dutch-government-picks-frances-naval-group-submarines-order-2024-03-15/

Apparently, the French competitor was able to push the price significantly low because the French state pledged to support the project financially, meaning it will cover the likely losses.

Saab and Damen will next attempt to win the Canadian procurement competition:

Anti-tank weapons are rolling off the production line as fast as possible, but mega-deals annoyingly often slip through their fingers.

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That is true indeed. It is also likely true that those mega deals aren’t closed very often. They involve such sums of money and are pondered and prepared for years. Even Finland’s fighter jet deals were probably planned and prepared for a decade.

From a shareholder’s perspective, it would of course be nice if, for example, some country switched its fighters entirely to Gripens. But this “small-scale business” also suits a small-time trader like me. The stock price development is beautiful to watch, and let’s see what next month’s split does to the volume and the price. The trading volume is insane anyway. For example today, Fortum has 39m and Saab has 680m.

Rock on!

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More orders pouring in

An acquisition is also underway in Finland, though it is impossible to say whether the procurement includes surveillance equipment provided by Saab https://raja.fi/valvontalentokoneet-korvattava

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