So, a few days ago there was this joint statement between Sweden and Brazil. Both countries want to expand the industrial cooperation by an additional 20 Gripen aircraft
Brazil’s first locally produced Gripen E, rolled out in Gavião Peixoto in March 2026. This matters because domestic production changes the politics of the program. Once jobs, engineering capacity, industrial know-how, and national pride are tied to a defense platform, replacing it becomes very hard.
So, the additional 20 aircraft now being discussed are not to be seen as a separate sales campaign. They are more like the natural continuation of a program Brazil has already integrated. Saab is simply expanding inside a system where Brazil already has developed the industrial base for manufacturing. These are very long term assets.
The planned innovation center adds another positive layer as a permanent R&D presence focused on Gripen development, maintenance, and upgrades is outstanding. According to how long these programs typically run, we are talking about a 30-to-40-year institutional commitment. Brazilian engineers will build knowledge around the platform, future upgrades will have a local technical base, and the program will become increasingly harder to unwind over time. In my eyes, for the type of business that Saab is, this is the deepest and strongest form of customer lock in as the customer helps shape the product.
The C-390 angle makes the structure even more interesting. Sweden is buying Brazilian transport aircraft while Brazil is expanding its Gripen fleet. That turns the relationship into a genuine bilateral defense industrial and political pact between two countries. It creates some sort of mutual dependency. Mutual industrial and political dependency is more durable than a pure export sale because both sides have something to defend. Sweden has an interest in Embraer’s C-390 success. Brazil has an interest in Gripen’s long term development. The program is therefore anchored above a “normal” procurement cycle.
Let’s suppose roughly 150 MUSD per aircraft on an all-in basis, 20 additional Gripen E/F aircraft would imply ~3 BUSD in potential program value. The Brazilian production base also helps reduce Saab’s capacity constraint over time, because part of the future volume growth sits outside Sweden.