Renato has published a new report on Saab’s Q2.
Saab delivered another strong quarter, exceeding our and the consensus expectations regarding revenue, profitability, and earnings per share, while order intake fell short of our forecast due to the timing of smaller campaigns. The Polish submarine order drove the order intake and reinforced our view that the next phase of European rearmament will favor larger platforms, for which Saab is strongly positioned. We are raising our 2026-28 forecasts only slightly, as our figures already contain high expectations. At the same time, the valuation has become more reasonable following the rating downgrade, which we consider sentiment-driven. With earnings growth accounting for the majority of the expected returns, the return profile exceeds our threshold, although the high expectations embedded in the stock keep our confidence at the same level. We are raising our target price to 635 kronor (prev. 622 kronor) and maintain our “accumulate” recommendation.