Hi! Here are my thoughts about the recently announced order that Saab received right before Easter.
The company received an order from the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration (FMV) for a mobile and modular counter-unmanned aircraft system (C-UAS) valued at approximately 230 MEUR (2.6 BSEK). The order strengthens Saab’s position in one of the fastest-growing segments in modern defense (Source: 1, 2) , with deliveries scheduled for 2027-2028. We view this as an expected continuation of Saab’s close cooperation with the Swedish Armed Forces rather than a surprise. Link to the press release.
Drone defense has become one of the defining capability gaps on the modern battlefield. The ordered system is designed to detect, track, and neutralize low-flying small and medium-sized drones; the kind that have reshaped tactics in Ukraine and driven a sharp rise in global C-UAS demand. The system integrates Saab’s own sensors and technologies into a compatible whole, built to protect both military targets and civilian infrastructure. The order will be booked under the Surveillance business area, which grew revenue by 24% in 2025 and sits at the core of Saab’s sensor technology and system integration capabilities.
In absolute terms, 230 MEUR is a meaningful order. In the context of Saab’s current order book, it is a relatively modest addition. The company’s order intake in Q4’25 alone reached a record approximately 8,850 MEUR (100 BSEK). That said, the order does exactly what a steady domestic order flow is supposed to do: it reinforces confidence that Saab can sustain a strong delivery pace and remain on track toward its updated financial targets for 2023-2027.
We expect Saab’s revenue to grow by 21.1% to approximately 8,482 MEUR (95,849 MSEK) in 2026 and by 18.8% to approximately 10,079 MEUR (113,892 MSEK) in 2027. On our estimates, EBIT should grow by 26% and 21% in those same years, while EPS should grow by 28% and 21%. From our point of view, the valuation remains demanding at 2026e P/E 43.5x, but strategic execution and a stable domestic order flow continue to reduce the execution risk that would otherwise make that multiple significantly harder to digest. We believe that modular, easily integrable systems like this C-UAS are a good illustration of how Saab is positioning itself to meet the scale of NATO’s and Europe’s growing defense needs.