William has bought an additional 215,281 units, with ownership rising to 21.76%.
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Topcon was a customer of Thirona, which Revenio owns. Topcon has now acquired expertise for itself.
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Well, well. Could this have caused Revenâs share price to drop by -5% today?
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Itâs possible that I didnât find all the information, but this Iris Retinal Screening doesnât seem like a substitute for Thironaâs AI technology to me. Rather, based on the website https://retinalscreenings.com/ and FDA documents, itâs more of a counterpart to the Oculo platform, which enhances ophthalmologistsâ services (e.g., with remote reading).
Of course, âAI analyticsâ was mentioned there, but these days itâs profitable to call even basic statistical analysis AI to make valuations look good (and this is not a joke). I couldnât find any whitepaper or similar evidence anywhere that the platform would have any machine learning-based diagnostics.
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I also tried to search myself and couldnât find any information. Mainly, when AI is mentioned in that link, it made me feel like it might be a competitor to Thirona. Well, time will tell. Juha could perhaps inquire from Jouni in connection with the earnings report whether Topcon is still a client of Thirona.
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OP slightly trimmed Revenioâs target
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Revenio earnings forecast.
US import tariffs and the weakening of the USD vs. the euro. Thereâs a lot of change.
However, it remains to be seen how the future will be commented on.
Approximately half of Revenioâs revenue comes from the United States, and the companyâs products are manufactured in Europe (Finland and Italy). In our view, the largest competitors also primarily manufacture their products outside the United States, which means we do not foresee significant changes in Revenioâs relative competitive position. However, rising prices may affect customer behavior, but we estimate that a clearly more significant negative impact will come through the EUR/USD exchange rate. The overall effects are still difficult to assess, which is why the companyâs comments on the outlook, exchange rate effects, and customer reactions to the situation are critical.
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Good morning,
it was a bit of a conflicting feeling when writing that preview. Revenio seems to be doing well operationally, and comparable figures are expected to improve nicely, but there are many external headwinds again. EUR/USD is the most significant and clearest, but then there are tariffs, uncertainty regarding investments, possibly Topconâs moves. Itâs hard to say how these will ultimately affect the market. And will the market understand if the reported figures are subdued relative to comparable ones? Well, some will understand, others wonât.
Anyway, weâll be smarter on Thursday. Any questions for the CEO are welcome, there will be an interview again after the earnings release!
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https://www.inderes.fi/releases/revenio-group-oyj-puolivuosikatsaus-11-3062025
âPrice increases announced during the early part of the year seem to have shifted demand slightly to Q1.â
âThe impact of increased tariffs on demand in the United States will be seen in the coming months. Without other measures, we estimate that a 15 percent import tariff level will affect our result by approximately 0.5â1.0 million euros during the second half of the year. As measures, we have, among other things, made price adjustments and increased inventory values in the United States.â
7.2% comparable growth, meaning we fell slightly short:
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My short analysis of revenioâs results can be found on X. Although the results were slightly below expectations, I donât believe weâll see any drama in the share price today.
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Juha interviewed Revenioâs CEO Jouni Toijala. 
Topics:
00:00 Introduction
00:16 Q2 highlights
01:30 Geographical areas
02:23 Market demand in the United States
03:14 Raising prices
05:07 iCare MAIA sales launched
05:42 Software
07:13 Cost structure and USD
08:07 Revenio does not hedge currencies
08:40 Exchange rates
09:30 Unrealized currency losses
10:58 Impact of tariffs
12:20 Reimbursement in the United States
13:06 Topcon
15:54 Revenioâs development
17:34 Project cost
18:10 Industry more broadly
19:24 Artificial intelligence
21:24 Clinical study timeline
21:57 FDA negotiations
22:35 Outlook
27:00 What worries the CEO?
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Juha Kinnunen has published a new company report on Revenio after Q2.
We reiterate our Add recommendation for Revenio, but revise our target price to EUR 28.0 (previously EUR 30.0) due to negative forecast changes. Q2âs operational EBIT was in line with our expectations, although revenue growth fell short of our expectations. Our forecasts decreased mainly due to currency exchange rate changes, but we also believe the growth outlook for the coming years has slightly weakened. In the big picture, things are progressing roughly as expected despite external headwinds, but the valuation does require earnings growth.
Quoted from the report:
Very strong balance sheet
Revenioâs operating cash flow in Q2 was EUR 6.7 million (Q2â24: EUR 6.5 million). Cash flow was supported by improved working capital management, but on the other hand, it was burdened by the timing of Italian tax payments (last year these occurred in Q3). Revenioâs balance sheet is very strong, with a net gearing of -1%. The balance sheet would also enable the company to make moves on the M&A front, should a suitable target be found at the right price. The companyâs management stated that they have spent a considerable amount of time on this, but agreement has not been reached on the valuation with potential acquisition targets.
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Strong similarities in these regarding Talenom, Kamux, and QTâŠ
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This was an excellent interview. As stated in the report, an acquisition is in the pipeline and âproject costsâ related to it were recorded in the past quarter. Judging by Toijalaâs comments, the device portfolio is expanding, so itâs likely that the OCT side is now being acquired.
Furthermore, in my opinion, Toijala left the door open for a small positive earnings surprise. A couple of positive surprises are therefore reserved for H2.
That AI screening and FDA is still an unfortunate matter. Itâs quite absurd that the FDA considers it problematic that AI finds disease more sensitively than a human+inferior device combination. In itself, itâs a testament to the quality of Revenioâs AI and device side, but on the other hand, as an investor, it would be nice to be involved in stories where high quality and R&D innovations bring returns - not problems.
In my opinion, Revenio is one of OMXHâs most interesting AI opportunities. Device+platform+AI would create a good moat, but this industry seems to be too challenging for AI investing, at least for now.
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On Friday (August 15), a significant block trade occurred:
Could William Demant Fonden have been buying after a long time?
Looking at the owner list (https://www.reveniogroup.fi/sijoittajat/osaketieto/osakkeenomistajat), the number of shares sold does not directly match the ownership amount of any of the top 24 largest owners. Therefore, the selling party cannot be directly deduced based on that.
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Researchers in South Korea have investigated in a sizable dataset which factors are associated with the iCare200 measurement result not being consistent with the Goldman measurement.
EDIT: the finding therefore indicates that iCare tends to produce skewed readings in certain patient groups; as I understand it, these include patients with an exceptionally thick central corneal area or a condition after cataract surgery. In itself, the finding is likely useful because it clarifies the suitability of iCare through the consideration of these special groups.
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I listened to revenioâs CEO Jouni Toijalaâs presentation at the #PörssiSijoittajanViikko (Stock Investorâs Week) event.
A few observations:
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Toijalaâs time has recently been spent especially on analyzing M&A targets. The company is looking for an acquisition on the device or software side. Targets have been found, but valuations are far too high. Acquisition targets would like to get a higher price than revenioâs multiples. The balance sheet is strong, so the search continues!
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The companyâs growth and profitability have been better than competitors this year. Competitors are hovering near break-even in profitability. The companyâs competitiveness is solid
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US tariffs have only a small impact on profitability. The company has raised prices and increased inventory in the market. Competitors are also exposed to tariffs.
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Dollar - the company does not hedge. Revenio has a 60 percent natural hedge because some of the costs are also in dollars. So, it should not cause major drama, even though ~50 percent of revenue comes from the USA.
I continue as a satisfied owner.
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The balance sheet certainly enables acquisitions, but itâs probably good that money isnât wasted on expensive corporate takeovers. CEO Toijala explained the possible logic of an acquisition well. On the software side, assets are reportedly in order, but on the hardware side, an expansion of the product offering is needed so that direct sales could be utilized better. In the US, they operate with direct sales, but elsewhere through distributors. In principle, itâs quite an attractive situation: if the right product expansion is found through an acquisition and they can push it through direct sales, then the margins also remain for themselves. Of course, there are always risks in direct sales, but with a good product palette, the risk-reward ratios are certainly in order.
Revenioâs valuation has fallen quite low; EV/FCF 2025 is 22x. I really donât understand who would want to sell this at this price 
Of course, as a disclaimer, I own Revenio. If Revenio has been knocking on othersâ doors with M&A in mind, then Revenio itself is probably becoming quite an interesting acquisition target at these prices, if the premium were sufficient. Of course, thereâs a strong main owner in the background, and Iâd rather see Revenio conquer the market itself than be acquired. Patience will probably be rewarded with this stock too, even though the share price is indeed at the same level as in 2019. So the hodlerâs return hasnât been great over the last 6 years, with the price stagnating.
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Press Release
Revenio plans to develop its organization to be increasingly customer-centric and initiates change negotiations related to this
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