Revenio as an investment

It’s quite easy to imagine a positive scenario for this case :slight_smile:

It requires the planned synergies to be fully realized and the EBITDA margin to be at 30% by 2029, as management has communicated. The goal is still to grow three times faster than the market, though the question now is which market is being referred to, as the product portfolio has changed quite a bit.

The EV/EBIT multiple paid for Visionix was very expensive, but the EV/EBITDA was more reasonable (no surprises there). The question is how sound the assets are that Visionix has acquired over the years through its own acquisitions. If Visionix’s business could transition into a faster growth phase under Revenio’s leadership, and especially if the efficiency measures communicated by Visionix hit home, then the multiple might be cheaper than it appeared at first glance.
So, in an ideal scenario, this could be an excellent case, but there are many assumptions along the way, and perhaps the uncertainty stems from the fact that for it to succeed, things have to go really well, which rarely happens.

On the other hand, Revenio’s business is becoming more capital-intensive, and one significant factor is that the share of recurring revenue will be like a drop in the ocean within the whole entity after this. Add debt and dilution to that, and the multiples will have to come down.

Hopefully, at the turn of the month, we’ll get a hint of who the seller is. I don’t believe the large Danish owner can be the seller, as I understand the deal has their blessing :sweat_smile:

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