I have been a Revenio shareholder for a very long time, but nowadays its weight in my portfolio is quite small – and that is not exactly a coincidence.
The case seems to be stalling. There is growth, but not the kind that this story should be producing. Clearly, more was expected from the HOME family, and AI has not yet become a concrete earnings driver, even though heavy investments are being made into it.
The valuation is starting to be quite moderate, which makes this a bit of a “middle-of-the-roader”: the downside doesn’t look large, but a clear driver for better performance is missing.
Acquisitions could be one way to accelerate growth, but I don’t see them as strictly necessary – and the method of execution matters a lot. Deals done with the company’s own balance sheet would be clearly more attractive than paying with shares at the current valuation, although the latter has its own sides (e.g., slight dilution of ownership).
The bull case still rests on the current products scaling better and AI starting to actually show in the numbers. For now, however, this is more about expectation than evidence. There is also a small option that the same sales force could sell more, but there isn’t really evidence of this yet.
My feeling at the moment:
A good company, but the story needs concrete results. The valuation is starting to look interesting, but it’s not yet a sufficient reason to increase the weight.