Relais - Series Combiner for Automotive Aftermarket

The transport sector remained firmly in the positive in March as well. I don’t know if there was any discussion or audience questions at yesterday’s AGM regarding how the impact of diesel prices (approx. 20-25% of transport sector costs) has been reflected in Relais’s customer base. This increase can, however, be passed on to prices within a 1-week to 3-month timeframe.

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The deal-making continues;

In the financial year ended in December 2025, SE’s revenue was NOK 28.6 million and adjusted operating profit was approximately NOK 5.0 million (unaudited figures, Norwegian accounting standards).

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9.9 million Norwegian kroner of the purchase price will be paid in Relais Group shares. Relais Group’s Board of Directors will make a separate share issue decision. The subscription price of the shares will be determined based on the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of the Relais Group share during the 20 trading days preceding the closing date.

A bit of dilution expected from this as well. It’s somewhat unappealing at the current valuation. On the other hand, there wouldn’t be a huge amount of room left on the balance sheet, and based on these figures, the acquisition target seems quite profitable.

Using one’s own shares is indeed a double-edged sword :smiley: The true cost of printing shares in the long run can be harsh, as Verneri also demonstrated well in today’s ‘Vartti’ (market wrap).

On the other hand, with Relais being in the early stages of its journey as a serial acquirer in the big picture, using its own shares enables more aggressive growth, essentially building the foundation and seizing opportunities quickly that wouldn’t otherwise be possible. Still, one always wonders if one’s own shares are used more loosely than cold hard cash :thinking:

In the long run, I would sleep best as a shareholder if the company used only cash flow and a suitable amount of debt for growth while keeping the number of shares constant. For now, I’m turning a bit of a blind eye since the company is still building that foundation for the coming decades :smiley: At this rate, we won’t be seeing Relais in @Verneri_Pulkkinen’s portfolio :smiley: Admittedly, I have to justify this and the hybrid to myself in a somewhat roundabout, politician-like way…

Waiting for Q1 and the new strategy :face_with_monocle:

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It would certainly be most optimal to pay for acquisitions entirely with cash flow. But if 1/3 or 1/4 is paid in shares, the majority is cash, and thus the dilution isn’t particularly massive. Let’s see how Relais’s capital allocation develops in the future in this regard. The new CEO has promised some sort of trimming. :slightly_smiling_face:

It’s good that there are acquisition targets available for Relais.

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Here are Petri’s comments on Relais’s Norwegian acquisition :slight_smile:

Relais announced on Thursday that it has acquired the entire share capital of the Norwegian Service-Ekspressen AS (SE). The acquisition is a typical strategic add-on purchase, through which Relais strengthens its position in the Norwegian workshop equipment business. SE is small in size relative to the Relais Group, which is why the impact of the transaction on our group-level forecasts is marginal. We will take the acquisition into account in our forecasts in connection with the next company report.

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I don’t own the company, I’m just following it. Still, I have to ask: why is the company paying a dividend if they have to use their own shares for acquisitions? You’d think a serial acquirer would find better use for the money than dividends.

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Indeed, in those cases, the more important reason is management commitment. The sizes of the directed share issues have been so small that they have almost no impact on the big picture through this channel. They certainly have an even greater impact on the actions of the acquired company’s management, though.

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I see it this way: a moderate, preferably growing, dividend is a guiding factor for discipline in growth. Paying a dividend steers acquisitions toward the best targets. In my opinion, this is a good setup considering the nature of serial acquisition and the position of shareholders.

Without a dividend, management might be incentivized, consciously or unconsciously, to prioritize growth above all else and with a small margin of safety. If there were also a performance bonus tied to growth, I would certainly be sweating as a minority shareholder. To pay a dividend, operations must generate cash flow even while pursuing growth. It might feel like a drag on growth, but it keeps feet on the ground during good years and ensures a margin of safety for leaner years.

Mathematically, it might be most rational not to pay a dividend, but personally, I skip those kinds of serial acquirers. That is when acquisitions might start going through with lower hurdle rates, and risk appetite grows too quickly during good years when money is easy. As a minority shareholder, I find it impossible to know management’s mindset well enough to feel at ease on such a ride. Unless we are talking about the greatest and most powerful acquirer.

Additionally, it occurs to me that if someone were selling their company to Relais, the seller might value the dividend from their own perspective. This can also be a mutual benefit if the sellers are in no hurry to get rid of their shares.

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CFO Ekström to leave the company by October at the latest

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Since the focus of Relais’s operations has shifted westward in recent years, what kind of move would it be to relocate the headquarters to Sweden and list the company on our western neighbor’s stock exchange? Serial acquirers are valued there, and generally, the world values keeping some distance from Russia.

I would be surprised if the new CFO isn’t Swedish.

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@Turskapilkki summarized my own thoughts well. So far, Relais’ acquisitions seem to have been very well-considered; they don’t buy just for the sake of buying or regardless of the price. More deals like this, please! Personally, I don’t mind the (small) dividends either, although I do understand the criticism in a way.

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An earnings preview and a target price hike from Nordea, increased from 17.7 to 21.6. They are expecting a strong Q1 and full year, as well as ambitious targets from the Capital Markets Day.

https://research.nordea.com/api/reportfileapi?id=7484aa8a-19b6-4368-afae-5b50b59c70f7

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Here are Petri’s pre-commentary notes, as Relais reports its Q1 results on Wednesday, May 13th :slight_smile: – that is, next Wednesday. :slight_smile:

In connection with this report, we have accounted for the company’s reporting change and a small acquisition in our forecasts, but overall the forecast changes were moderate. The stock’s valuation has drifted low, leading us to upgrade our recommendation to Buy (prev. Accumulate) and reiterate our target price of EUR 18.0.

Relais Q1’26: Acquisition-driven (earnings) growth expected

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Carnegie preview is out. They are expecting organic growth. They are also looking ahead to the Capital Markets Day, where ambitious targets are expected.

https://access.dnbcarnegie.com/publication/d78198cf-0af2-4963-0df7-08deaf4854e7

Adjusted P/E is 11 based on their 2026 forecasts. Not a bad price at all.

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In the customer sector, all indicators are pointing northeast except for profitability. Only a bit over 50% of transport companies have functional fuel clauses. The question here is whether the use of more affordable, brand-independent workshops and parts would increase during leaner times; new “repair-free” equipment is also unlikely to be acquired during challenging periods. Extra outfitting of vehicles is likely not practiced as actively either.

So that my guesswork wouldn’t rely solely on SKAL, I also sifted through the development of employee counts for the largest companies on LinkedIn. Generally, the headcount in all of them had grown by 3–11% since last May; one was flat (AB Reservdelar) and one was +24% (Huzells). While it’s certainly possible that the retiring generation doesn’t use LinkedIn and the newer generation does, such a large growth in headcount can’t be explained by anything other than business growth. :smiley:

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JANUARY–MARCH 2026 IN BRIEF

  • Revenue was EUR 119.0 million (January–March 2025: 82.8), change +44%

  • Adjusted EBITA was EUR 12.8 (9.2) million, change +40%

  • Adjusted EBITA margin was 10.8 (11.1)%

  • Adjusted earnings per share, undiluted, was EUR 0.38 (0.34)

  • Net cash flow from operating activities was EUR 10.4 (2.7) million

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Well, that went perfectly as expected! To my eye, there isn’t a single word about the weather in the CEO’s comments. It’s so obvious that the severe frosts in January and February played right into the company’s hands, so I think it’s a bit silly that it’s not being highlighted. I recall Arni commenting in early 2024 that the weather hit the mark from their perspective. If the weather was actually mentioned there, then my apologies :grinning_face_with_smiling_eyes:

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Here are the figures for the beginning of the year in table format. Profitability met expectations well, so on adjusted figures, the result exceeded expectations driven by the top line. In particular, Technical Wholesale grew organically more strongly than expected, which is likely due, at least in part, to weather-related drivers.

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Regarding technical wholesale, there is a mention of the weather:

the cold winter had a positive impact on the sales of spare parts and equipment
compared to the mild winter of 2025.

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Tj Gebauer’s interview regarding Q1:

(00:00) Introduction
(00:07) Q1 performance
(00:42) Cold winter boosted sales
(02:42) Startax
(03:59) Change in reporting model
(05:30) New acquisition
(06:34) Upcoming Capital Markets Day on May 20th
(07:26) Market situation

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