Thank you very much for Protector’s reporting! It’s always a pleasure to read your good comments and insights!
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Thanks for the heartwarming comment! 
Judging by the share price reaction, the markets are staring at an EPS miss. It’s starting to smell like I need to dig out my buying pants from the closet. For next year, an EPS of 36-38 is quite possible, assuming that insurance premium income growth is 15-20% (France’s growth and premium increases alone are estimated to bring 10%), a slight improvement in CR (Denmark and the scaling
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I outlined next year’s results a bit, and compared to the previous message, I need to temper expectations. I considered 33kr EPS as a base case and 17.5 P/E with current performance as a neutral valuation level => TP (Target Price) for a year out is 578kr, roughly a 30% annual return considering a 2% dividend. I added today at the 451kr level, as I believe the downside risk is very limited, and stable insurance operations are appealing in this turbulence.
A bear case is also quite possible, meaning EPS would stagnate relative to the current year. I set the multiple at 15, but with that performance, it could just as well be 17.5. I don’t believe growth will slow down to 5% at all.
A bull case is also possible, but unlikely. It would require a major breakthrough in France (growth) and conditions similar to the current year regarding the loss ratio (no major storms and/or moderate large losses). Stock returns would also need to reach current year levels.
In the big picture, I don’t believe stock returns will be similar to what has been seen in the last 3 years. Reasons:
- The significantly improved combined ratio is, I believe, pretty much at its maximum in terms of the company’s targets, i.e., keeping pricing competitive.
- Interest income has stabilized
- Additionally, the P/E multiple has risen from around 12 to 15-17 during this time. Of course, it could still stretch to the comparables’ 20 levels, which is a wild card for returns.
But for the current price, a decent 15-20% annual return should be achievable over the next few years.
| 2026 bear | 2026 base | 2026 bull | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Insurance revenue growth | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Insurance revenue (mNOK) | 15 070 kr | 15 755 kr | 16 440 kr |
| Combined ratio | 86% | 85% | 84% |
| Insurance service result (mNOK) | 2 110 kr | 2 363 kr | 2 630 kr |
| AUM bonds average (mNOK) | 25 500 kr | 25 500 kr | 25 500 kr |
| AUM stocks average (mNOK) | 4 400 kr | 4 400 kr | 4 400 kr |
| Bond yield (no value changes) | 5% | 5% | 5% |
| Stock return | 8% | 10% | 12% |
| Investment result (mNOK) | 1 627 kr | 1 715 kr | 1 803 kr |
| Other expenses and insurance finance expenses (mNOK) | −450 kr | −450 kr | −450 kr |
| Taxes 25% | −822 kr | −907 kr | −996 kr |
| Net income (mNOK) | 2 465 kr | 2 721 kr | 2 988 kr |
| EPS | 30 kr | 33 kr | 36 kr |
| P/E | 15 | 17,5 | 20 |
| Mcap (mNOK) | 36 977 kr | 47 621 kr | 59 751 kr |
| TP | 449 kr | 578 kr | 725 kr |
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Alright, the preliminary growth figures for 2025 and the Jan 1, 2026 gross written premium growth figures have been released, which are very significant for the full year’s growth (approx. one-third). In about every third of Prote’s insurance contracts, the policy period is the calendar year, and thus Jan 1 is the first day of the period.
2025 GWP growth is 14% in local currencies, which I think is a solid level compared to Prote’s history. In contrast, the Jan 1 growth is an outstanding 25%, of which the French market, opened in 2025, accounts for 47%!!! 
This means they have really won over clients there. Hopefully, more information regarding French profitability will be available in next week’s earnings release.
Based on these figures, I updated my tables a bit, and the base case gives a target price of 620-650 with a P/E of 17.5, depending slightly on the development of investment assets, for which there will be more info next week. I’ll publish the updated table then. It might also be worth considering whether a P/E of 17.5 is too conservative a valuation, given the growth, ROE, and track record.
Edit. Corrected an error regarding the January 1st share of the full year’s growth.
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Q4 is out
investor-presentation-fy-and-q4-2025-prot.pdf (2.4 MB)
It was certainly pleasing to my eye, and I believe the market’s opinion won’t differ from this. Q4 highlights:
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Growth 12% in local currencies.
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Combined ratio 85% vs. 84.2% Q4/24, so slightly weaker. the UK and Sweden improved slightly, while Norway and Denmark weakened. France, as a new market, is a drag on profitability (CR 121.8%).
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Loss ratio rose 0.9 percentage points to 73.5% and the cost ratio improved 0.2 percentage points to 11.4% despite the ramp-up in France (where the cost ratio is 22.8%)
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Investment return 2.1% vs. -0.4% Q4/24. Equities yielded a nice 7.1% in the quarter and bonds a stable 1.2%. Note! Q3 equities yielded -1.9%, so there is naturally some volatility. Equities’ share of the result before tax is ~24% for FY2025.
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EPS an impressive 8.5 NOK
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Quarterly dividend 6 NOK (NOTE! dividend distribution is reviewed quarterly and Protector may even skip dividends in some quarters if there is better use for the capital elsewhere.
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Solvency after dividend is a strong 197%, as firepower is needed for growth in France. Solvency requirements also rose because Protector reduced its reinsurance coverage.
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Reinsurance retention level has been increased, meaning Protector gets to keep a larger share of the gross premiums. This boosts revenue growth and profitability in the long term, but correspondingly increases the volatility of the technical result, as a larger share of large losses is borne by Prot.
2025 highlights:
- Growth 14% in local currencies. Growth was steady across all markets, meaning the UK is no longer the sole growth driver.
- ROE an impressive 42% (cf. Inderes’ forecast for Sampo 26.7% in 2025)
- Combined ratio 84.7% vs. 88.1% FY2024. Clearly the biggest improver was Denmark (117.6% => 86.6%), which has been a headache for a long time. Evidence that corrective actions in the insurance industry can be made very quickly. In Denmark’s case, the loss-making workers’ compensation portfolio was sold off and no new contracts are being made.
- Cost ratio rose 0.5 percentage points to 11.1%, mainly due to France. Loss ratio decreased 3.9% to 73.6%.
- Investment returns strong at 7.3% vs. 4.9% FY24. Equities yielded 20.3% and bonds 5.2%.
- Renewal rate 95%, meaning customer retention is very strong. Evidence of the effectiveness of the company’s strategy: focusing on the broker channel, precise risk selection based on own strengths in each market, and cost efficiency. The company reached the top spot in broker satisfaction surveys in every market. France was not yet included.
Outlook:
- January 1st (key policy renewal date) growth 25% in local currencies, of which France’s share is 47%. This means that France will double its size with this sale alone in FY26.
- On the flip side, France’s weaker profitability will drag down the CR at the group level with its larger volume. It took 3 years for the UK to become profitable. And that was a good performance! So nothing new here, but of course France’s profitability must be monitored.
- France’s loss ratio was high at 97.1% FY25. It would be interesting to hear comments on why this is. The customer base was small last year, so individual claims could already explain that.
- I will try to update my spreadsheets in the coming days and post my own forecast for the current year.
I expect a significantly positive share price reaction today.
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The webcast revealed that only 10% of bids were won in France, meaning that the deals won have not come through aggressive pricing. They had assumed that growth there would be even stronger. Apparently, in property insurance, the insurance company AXA has significantly lowered its prices compared to the 2025 situation. There are also difficulties regarding growth in Sweden and the UK; i.e., the market is softening and prices are coming down. In contrast, there is strong growth in Denmark and Norway, though they are smaller markets.
I believe the share price reaction is driven by the tightened competitive situation in the largest markets (UK and Sweden) and the information regarding the competitive situation in French property insurance.
Below are the updated 2026 bear, base, and bull scenario calculations.
The base case growth assumption of 20% may seem high, but in practice, 7.7 percentage points are already secured (contracts made in Q1 correspond to about a third of the contract portfolio and Jan 1st gross written premium growth was 25%) from the Jan 1st growth alone, so “only” 17.7% growth is needed for the rest of the year. Additionally, the decrease in the reinsurance level boosts net earned premium/revenue growth, which is reflected in the top line of the income statement.
Regarding the combined ratio, I made an assumption in the base case that France triples its size by 2026 and the CR drops to 110%, with the loss ratio falling to around 90% and the cost ratio to around 20%. Otherwise, the same CR level as in 2025 is assumed.
I calculated AUMs simplistically as Dec 31, 2025 values +10%, reflecting the year’s average AUM. 2025 AUM grew by approx. 20% driven by business growth and investment returns. AUM growth largely goes hand-in-hand with business growth, and that is also the current default assumption.
For bond yields, I assume the same 5% as in 2025, as the yield was 4.9% on Dec 31, 2025. Equity returns fluctuate the most, and a 10% base assumption for the current year might be overly optimistic considering last year’s rally (Protector’s CAGR 12%). With that 10% assumption, the EPS impact of equity returns is approx. +4 NOK vs. 0% return.
I raised the acceptable fP/E in the base case to 18. The justifications are an excellent 5-year track record (quality), a good outlook for the fixed income markets, and a clear growth path.
| 2026 bear | 2026 base | 2026 bull | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Insurance revenue growth | 17.5% | 20.0% | 22.5% |
| Insurance revenue (mNOK) | 16,568 kr | 16,920 kr | 17,273 kr |
| Combined ratio | 86% | 85% | 84% |
| Insurance service result (mNOK) | 2,319 kr | 2,538 kr | 2,764 kr |
| Average AUM bonds (mNOK) | 23,772 kr | 23,772 kr | 23,772 kr |
| Average AUM equities (mNOK) | 4,762 kr | 4,762 kr | 4,762 kr |
| Bond yield (no valuation changes) | 5% | 5% | 5% |
| Stock return | 8% | 10% | 12% |
| Investment result (mNOK) | 1,570 kr | 1,665 kr | 1,760 kr |
| Other expenses and insurance finance expenses (mNOK) | −550 kr | −550 kr | −550 kr |
| Taxes 23% | −768 kr | −840 kr | −914 kr |
| Net income (mNOK) | 2,571 kr | 2,813 kr | 3,060 kr |
| EPS | 31 kr | 34 kr | 37 kr |
| P/E | 16 | 18 | 20 |
| Mcap (mNOK) | 41,137 kr | 50,628 kr | 61,194 kr |
| TP | 499 kr | 614 kr | 743 kr |
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As a comment on the calculations above, it is quite far from the reality of non-life insurance companies if the difference in CR between the bull and bear scenarios is 2 percentage points. If you do not want to vary the CR between different scenarios, it would be better to just keep it the same.
True, it’s a pretty tight range. One could also put CR at 88% for the bear scenario and 83% for the bull, but I would give them clearly less weight than the values I used.
Sverre (ex-Protector CEO) has crafted an update to his Protector analysis. They are forecasting flat EPS for 2026 even though insurance premium income grows by 19% in their forecasts. This is due to their conservative assumption that the combined ratio returns closer to the long-term average (26e 87%), i.e., clearly higher than 2025 (84.7%).
Their target price remains at 660 NOK.
Interesting additional information about the UK commercial and real estate property insurance market, which Protector is now targeting. Until now, it has not been an attractive market because the value chain is complex (many intermediaries, commissions up to 40% of the premium), which eats into Protector’s cost-leadership advantage. Additionally, buyers/banks have a requirement for an A-credit rating, which Protector did not have previously (it does now). Finally, the market has very well-established relationships between players, which is why it has been difficult to break in. Now, the UK government is putting pressure on pricing transparency and reducing commission costs, as well as seeking to lower the threshold for switching insurance companies to facilitate competition.
The UK property insurance market is huge, approx. £1bn, meaning it is similar in scale to launching in a new Nordic market. Currently, Protector has only insured public sector properties in the UK. Commercial and real estate properties are also attractive because the majority of claims come from small so-called frequency losses, which reduces volatility/variance.
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Results were already out yesterday. The combined ratio remained at a good level and written premium grew slightly. Need to digest this and dive deeper when I have the time. At a quick glance, the train keeps chugging along.
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Work has been busy, so posting here has unfortunately fallen by the wayside. To start off, below is Prote’s stock portfolio as of December 31, 2025, extracted from the annual report.
YTD returns aren’t exactly impressive, which was reflected in Q1, but if one looks for a silver lining, the last month has already been in the black. It is also noteworthy that the Nordic banks, which were in the portfolio for years, have been offloaded. Huhtamäki, Siili, and Sitowise have entered the portfolio. Verkkokauppa is out, and Zalando has come in “to replace” it.
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The essential part is under the interim report: the underwriting result and growth are rocking - investment returns are stalling.
- In investment returns, equities -7.2% and bonds +0.1%
In bonds, rising interest rates lowered paper values, but the yield rose slightly (5.1% => 5.3%) while the risk level was reduced (high yield bonds down by 15.5%) - Solvency requirements decreased due to the reduction in the investment risk level, so Prote paid an exceptionally large quarterly dividend of 8 NOK despite the strong growth.
- Renewal rate 93%
- Growth is stalling in the UK Growth was only 5% in the key insurance policies starting on April 1st, due to lower quoting activity and a lower hit rate. However, the renewal rate was over 100% in public entities and real estate.
- UK profitability is diamond-grade - CR a measly 77%
- Half of the 21% growth came from France, where growth was 172%
- Surprisingly, 19% growth in Norway as well
- France already reached a clearly positive result (CR 91.7%) even though it has only been in the market for 1.5 years!!! Of course, it’s still very early days and as I’ve mentioned before, they took a hit in Denmark after the first good years when pricing had been too aggressive.
- A lower reinsurance rate was reflected in 1.8 percentage points lower reinsurance costs. This should manifest as higher volatility in the loss ratio, but this quarter large claims were exceptionally low (1.7% of premiums, compared to an average of 6%).
Excellent performance is being drowned out by poor investment returns. In my opinion, this is starting to look like a good spot to add more to the portfolio.
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Thanks for the great summary! I might add more Protector to my position; it’s been in my portfolio since 2016 and things are looking good 
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Well, those are some pretty impressive return percentages in that portfolio 
I bought in for the first time in 2015 and sold in 2018 just before the crash—mostly by sheer luck in terms of timing—and got back in during the spring of 2020.