I would correct that by saying the current consensus view on Posti is positive.
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Where did you get your recommendations at the analyst level? It’s not directly related, but thank you for your excellent answers. Personally, I’ve been thinking that the parcel business is global and there could be some tough competition, but in principle, the other side of the coin is that the postal service has the whole world as its playing field, at least in theory.
I ordered packages over the weekend from Amazon Germany, IKEA Finland, and a couple of domestic online stores. In every case, Posti offered the most affordable and flexible delivery options for consumer needs (in practice, Posti delivery was the default for everyone). Domestic competitors in particular need to invest much more if they are to challenge Posti.
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@Arttu_Heikura I wonder if it’s the case that the current princely cash flow of the business won’t be enough to increase the dividend in the future? In my opinion, it should be enough when I look at the numbers.
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You can find them here: Konsensusennusteet | Posti .
That parcel business could be roughly divided into two: B2C and B2B parcels. For B2C parcels coming from abroad, many global couriers (e.g., UPS and DHL) outsource the last mile delivery (i.e., transport from the local distribution center to the recipient’s door or pickup point) to, for example, Posti or Postnord. FedEx is arguably one of the few that also has its own operations for B2C parcels in Finland. For priority parcels, UPS and DHL likely handle the last-mile process themselves to ensure delivery reliability and speed. However, for foreign B2B parcels, all these giants seem to be present in some way. As far as I understand, these players do not transport domestic Finnish parcels at all.
So, as it stands, global competition seems to remain limited in B2C parcels (who knows if Finland’s sparsely populated geography and status as a peripheral market keep the giants away). That said, there are plenty of local players in the market, and price competition here has been fierce in recent years and is likely to continue that way.
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For the past two years, Posti’s free cash flow has been negative. Looking at the longer history, Posti’s dividend payments (a basic dividend of approximately 30 MEUR/year) have been partially based on the sale of balance sheet assets and additional borrowing (a 150 MEUR additional dividend to the state in 2025). A portion of the cash flow has also gone toward financing acquisitions.
Based on our forecasts (assuming earnings improve and there are no acquisitions), free cash flow will be higher than the 30 MEUR basic dividend in the future. The gradual sale of the real estate portfolio is one of the drivers here. However, we believe that in the short term (1–2 years), the company will want to improve its balance sheet position by reducing net debt, now that earnings do not appear to be growing significantly this year. Based on the last quarter, Posti’s net debt/EBITDA was at the upper limit set by the company (~2.5x). For this reason, we are forecasting a payout ratio of approximately 80%, rather than the historical payout ratio of over 100%.
If earnings improve annually and no major investment needs arise, then yes, free cash flow alone will be sufficient for a growing dividend.
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Arttu has written a pre-result report on Posti :), the company will report its results on Friday 
We expect that the positive domestic macroeconomic development has also been reflected in Posti’s volumes and we forecast a result in line with the comparison period. We believe the company will reiterate its guidance. The return expectation supported by earnings growth and dividend yield is, in our view, attractive, which is why we reiterate our ‘accumulate’ recommendation. The target price rises to 11.0 euros (previously 9.5e) driven by forecast changes.
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And there the result popped out:
Posti Group Oyj Half-year report January–June 2026: Posti’s net sales grew and adjusted operating result improved in the second quarter
Unless otherwise stated, figures in parentheses refer to the comparison period in the previous year.
Key figures April–June 2026
• Net sales grew by 1.6 percent and were EUR 362.0 (356.3) million.
• Adjusted EBITDA grew to EUR 43.9 (43.5) million, or 12.1 (12.2) percent of net sales.
• Adjusted operating result grew to EUR 12.5 (11.7) million, or 3.4 (3.3) percent of net sales.
• Operating result decreased to EUR 9.6 (10.5) million, or 2.7 (2.9) percent of net sales. Operating result was weakened by special items of EUR 2.8 (1.2) million.
• The result for the period decreased and was EUR 2.5 (3.7) million.
• The first installment of the dividend, EUR 0.42 per share, totaling EUR 17.0 million, was paid on April 24.
Key figures January–June 2026
• Net sales grew by 0.2 percent and were EUR 714.5 (713.4) million.
• Adjusted EBITDA decreased to EUR 82.0 (86.0) million, or 11.5 (12.1) percent of net sales.
• Adjusted operating result decreased to EUR 19.0 (22.2) million, or 2.7 (3.1) percent of net sales.
• Operating result grew to EUR 23.6 (15.5) million, or 3.3 (2.2) percent of net sales. The operating result was positively affected by the sale of an investment property realized in the first quarter.
• The result for the period increased and was EUR 8.8 (3.5) million.
• Operating free cash flow grew significantly and was EUR 12.6 (-50.6) million.
• Net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 2.6x (2.5x).
• Earnings per share (EPS), basic and diluted, were EUR 0.22 (0.09).
Key events April–June 2026
• The net sales of the eCommerce and Delivery Services segment grew and profitability improved due to strong operational performance and a more favorable product and service mix.
• Growth in eCommerce and Delivery Services was particularly driven by an 11.9 percent growth in parcel volumes. Volumes of higher-price-point parcel products and demand for freight traffic grew during the review period. In addition, secondhand e-commerce continued to be a significant growth driver.
• Posti strengthened its commercial position through significant new customer accounts, expanded customer relationships, and strategic partnerships.
• Volumes of addressed letter mail continued to decline by 23.9 (18.5) percent.
• Posti continued its long-term work in developing digital services and acquired the digital mail business of Kivra in Finland in April. The arrangement strengthens Posti’s position in digital communication.
• The Astra reform program, which aims to manage the transition from declining letter volumes to growing parcel volumes, is progressing as planned. On June 1, a new Posti Operational unit began its operations, playing a key role in improving and developing production and supply chain operations.
Outlook for 2026 unchanged (published Feb 13, 2026)
Posti estimates its net sales to be EUR 1,400–1,500 million and its adjusted operating result to be EUR 63–79 million in 2026. In 2025, Posti’s net sales were EUR 1,447.6 million and the adjusted operating result was EUR 69.3 million.
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Posti’s earnings beat expectations – Revenue increased Postin tulos ylitti ennusteen – Liikevaihto kasvoi | Kauppalehti
Posti Group Oyj: Posti Group to initiate a share buyback program Posti Group Oyj: Posti Group aloittaa omien osakkeiden takaisinosto-ohjelman | Kauppalehti
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Very good results from Posti. Below are our initial views.
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Posti CEO Antti Jääskeläinen was interviewed by Arttu
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I had already gotten excited about the state-owned company’s bold move to buy back and even cancel its own shares instead of the eternal dividend milking, but it was just wishful thinking. Maybe one day…
The repurchased shares will be used for the company’s long-term share-based incentive programs or other share rewards. Posti Group does not currently hold any of its own shares.
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Arttu has published a new company report on Posti
Posti’s Q2 result exceeded our expectations, and the profitable growth in the parcel business provided strong evidence of the company’s earnings growth potential. We believe the earnings trend will improve towards the end of the year and turn into clearer growth in 2027. Given this and the generous dividend yield, we consider the stock’s return expectations attractive. We reiterate our “accumulate” recommendation and raise our target price to 13.0 euros (previously 11.0e) following our forecast upgrades.
Excerpts from the report:
Cash flow improved, no material changes to the balance sheet
H1 operating cash flow rose from 30 MEUR in the comparison period to 66 MEUR, mainly due to working capital management. At the same time, Posti’s investments were very moderate, which is why the increase in free cash flow (13 MEUR) was strong relative to the comparison period (-50 MEUR). Despite the improvement in free cash flow and what we consider a good result, Posti’s net debt to EBITDA ratio remained at the 1.1x level. Investors should note that the balance sheet still contains roughly 85 MEUR worth of real estate investments (third-party estimate), which Posti intends to sell over the coming years.
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The majority of employees at Posti’s distribution center (letters and small parcels) walked out yesterday. The walkout is still ongoing. In 2019, a postal strike that lasted about two weeks caused a clear decline in the company’s earnings. However, the 2019 postal strike took place in November, which is a seasonally important period for Posti’s profitability. Apparently, the employees are returning to work this evening. Given these specifics, the situation should not cause significant harm to Posti’s earnings, unlike in 2019. If the situation drags on, it could also have a negative impact on Posti’s figures.
EDIT:
The most up-to-date news regarding the walkout will likely appear here:
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The situation now is different compared to the tantrums of 2019. Back then, the collective labor agreement for the postal sector had expired, and the union had the right to strikes, etc. Now, the sector’s agreement is in force until the end of 2028, so any kind of maneuvers on the part of the employees are illegal.
From a longer-term perspective, I believe the streamlining will have a positive impact on the results.
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Not necessarily. Walkouts can be illegal or legal, but that is decided by the Labour Court if the matter is taken there. Not by any of us here, or anywhere else.
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In recent TJ interviews, the topic of discussion has been the digital transition of official mail, which is progressing in a more positive direction for Posti. The distribution of official communication through private digital mail services has now been approved by law, and Posti is negotiating with DVV (Digital and Population Data Services Agency) regarding a commercial agreement to bring official messages for delivery in OmaPosti. This is essential for the long-term case, as the distribution of physical mail is declining annually. If the decline continues for a long time, it will inevitably weaken distribution efficiency. Through this, the ramp-up of highly scalable digital mail could support (not necessarily boost) the profitability of Postal Services in the long term.
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Hi, how has that surcharge on small packets affected Posti? The volume of them has plummeted, after all.
Their prices were so low before the surcharge that Posti hardly made anything on them. Mostly just extra work.
Processing Chinese packages is likely a loss-making operation, so the decrease is a positive development.