This thread has discussed the decline in official mail and postcards, but based on a search, there isn’t a word about the impact of C2C (Consumer-to-Consumer) trade on Posti’s delivery volumes—specifically Tori.fi and particularly Vinted.
There is very little data on Vinted in Finland, but as an active e-commerce user, it feels like the volume of Vinted parcels at parcel lockers and Posti service points has exploded. It will be interesting to see the impact in Posti’s figures. The closure of R-kioski locations / the termination of Ärräpaketti services in 2025 will certainly bring in more revenue, though it likely wasn’t a massive business.
Vinted’s arrival in Finland in late 2023 has been a key factor in the shift of Finnish peer-to-peer trade and parcel logistics. Vinted does not publish country-specific parcel volumes, but it can be assumed that Tori.fi is not the driver behind the “peer-to-peer trade” market growth, but specifically Vinted. The following figures are from a study by the Finnish Commerce Federation (Kaupan liitto) (September 2025):
1. Explosive Market Growth (2023–2025)
The Finnish second-hand market (circular economy) has grown tremendously since Vinted’s entry:
106% growth: Digital second-hand trade in Finland grew by a staggering 106 percent between 2023 and 2025. During the same period, sales at traditional physical flea markets grew by only about 6 percent.
Market value: The total value of the circular economy market in Finland rose from approximately 900 million euros in 2023 to nearly 1.4 billion euros by 2025.
2. Parcel Volumes: Every fourth parcel is used goods
Data from logistics companies (such as Posti and Matkahuolto) shows Vinted’s direct impact:
Posti statistics (2025): In early 2025, 25%, or every fourth consumer e-commerce parcel delivered by Posti, contained used goods. This is a significant increase from previous years, and Vinted is the largest single new driver alongside Tori.fi.
C2C Logistics: The utilization rate of parcel lockers has reached record levels specifically due to the ease of services like Vinted (prepaid shipping labels and integrated delivery).
The source for these is Posti’s own press release: ”Buying used goods is growing rapidly – yet every fourth Finn has still never bought second-hand” from August, and the ”One Thousand Finns” study commissioned by Posti and conducted by Iro Research (June 2025).
One would imagine that Q4, before Christmas, would have been a very strong quarter for this Vinted trade as well—stronger than 2024.
InPost is a very different animal compared to our Posti.
“Growth & Business Model: InPost is a rapidly growing parcel-locker/e-commerce logistics provider. In 2024 its revenue jumped +23% and parcel volumes +22%. It operates an asset-light, tech-enabled model with 61,000+ parcel lockers across Europe and strong positions in Poland, France, UK, etc., riding the e-commerce boom.” vs. " Posti, by contrast, saw revenue decline 4% in 2024. It is Finland’s postal and logistics incumbent, facing structural declines in mail volumes (addressed letters –18% in 2024) and only modest parcel growth. Posti’s business mix (mail, freight, warehousing, etc.) is mature and low-growth, which dampens the multiples investors are willing to pay."
It would be a different story if, in connection with the 2025 report, we were to receive word from Posti about what I wrote above—namely, clear growth in the parcel segment specifically linked to e-commerce and C2C trade. There is no getting around the fact that Posti’s market area is clearly more limited, but the temporary parcel lockers set up in December provide at least a strong sign that Q4 was better in terms of parcel volumes than 2024. Correspondingly, the reported change negotiations are a sure sign that cost structure problems have been identified and something is being done about them.
Based on a quick Excel calculation, InPost’s recommended takeover bid of 15.60 per share (equity value of 7.8 billion euros) corresponds to about 28x earnings and about 12x EBITDA, reflecting its excellent growth trajectory and profitability. Posti’s share is currently at about 8x earnings and 3x EBITDA. This is in line with lower growth and margins.
If Posti’s value were measured in the same way as InPost’s, one could theoretically assume a bid of around 30–50 euros per share. Purely based on history, however, the difference is justified by fundamentals: InPost is a fast-growing, pan-European e-commerce enabler, while Posti is a stable postal and logistics company focused on the domestic market. A takeover bid at the level of InPost would be difficult for Posti to achieve without a radical improvement in growth prospects and profitability.
Inpost’s results might not tell the whole story, as they’re constantly setting up a huge number of new parcel lockers all over the place, so money is going into those investments. There have also been several acquisitions now, the latest probably in Spain and a couple in the UK. Just sharing this for your information; I haven’t looked at Posti in Finland for the time being.
The headline says it all: ”Posti’s results and dividend met expectations”
Key points:
Key figures October–December 2025
Net sales decreased by 3.3 percent and were EUR 390.4 (403.6) million.
Adjusted EBITDA increased to EUR 62.1 (54.2) million, or 15.9 (13.4) percent of net sales.
EBITDA increased to EUR 57.0 (52.8) million, or 14.6 (13.1) percent of net sales.
Adjusted operating result increased to EUR 30.0 (21.7) million, or 7.7 (5.4) percent of net sales.
Operating result increased to EUR 24.8 (19.2) million, or 6.4 (4.8) percent of net sales. This was negatively affected by EUR 5.2 (2.5) million in special items, which included costs related to the listing.
Key figures January–December 2025
Net sales decreased by 4.8 percent and were EUR 1,447.6 (1,521.4) million.
Adjusted EBITDA decreased to EUR 196.4 (207.6) million, or 13.6 (13.6) percent of net sales.
EBITDA decreased to EUR 180.4 (196.6) million, or 12.5 (12.9) percent of net sales.
Adjusted operating result decreased to EUR 69.3 (80.1) million, or 4.8 (5.3) percent of net sales.
Operating result decreased to EUR 52.3 (68.0) million, or 3.6 (4.5) percent of net sales. This was negatively affected by EUR 17.0 (12.2) million in special items, including costs related to the listing.
That is at least a reasonable performance. Change negotiations are behind, and their cost savings are for 2026. In the general market situation in Finland, private consumption is expected to strengthen in 2026, so there should be at least reasonably good chances to reach the upper end of the (quite moderate) 2026 guidance.
”During the quarter, both adjusted EBITDA and adjusted operating profit improved clearly compared to last year, driven by strong operational performance. In fact, our relative profitability – adjusted EBITDA and adjusted operating profit margins – rose to their highest level in over ten years specifically in the final quarter of the year,” says CEO Antti Jääskeläinen.
Posti’s forecast seems to rely very heavily on the GDP forecast, and Posti has taken a cautious approach, assuming consumer demand remains subdued. Thus, if a pick-up in private consumption is seen in the coming months, it will be good for parcel volumes and, above all, good for Posti through the streamlined parcel process. Cautious budgeting is understandable, as it’s always nicer to give positive vs. negative earnings releases. The strengthening of consumer demand isn’t a total fact yet, but there are signs of it:
Here is SalkunRakentaja’s article about Posti and its Q4 results.
Growth in consumer parcel volumes in the eCommerce and Delivery Services segment continued, driven especially by secondhand eCommerce. Meanwhile, the B2B parcel market aimed at companies was weaker.
Net sales in the Fulfillment and Logistics Services segment grew due to increased demand for warehousing services.
The adjusted EBITDA for Postal Services improved significantly, despite the decline in the volume of addressed letters and Posti’s earlier decision to discontinue unaddressed marketing services.
“The successful implementation of changes in the distribution model, resource optimization, and a high degree of sorting automation significantly strengthened the segment’s result,” Jääskeläinen states.
Subheadings:
Relative profitability exceptionally high for Posti
Competition is intense
Digitalization will continue to erode postal service sales in the future
