Frans has made a new company report on Ovaro ![]()
We are downgrading Ovaro’s recommendation to Reduce (previously Add) and lowering our target price to EUR 3.30 (previously EUR 3.70). The escalation of the Middle East crisis has raised inflation expectations, which has sharply increased interest rates. The rise in interest rates strikes at the core of Ovaro’s strategy, which relies on recycling the balance sheet and initiating new projects. This is particularly emphasized in a very subdued new housing market, which has increased forecast risks for the coming years. A low balance sheet-based valuation (2025 P/B 0.58x) provides security for the stock in the current uncertainty, but we believe that with our changed forecasts, the stock’s expected return will fall below our cost of equity (12%) in the short term.