Outokumpu - Jatkuvaa vuoristorataa vai vakavasti otettava sijoituskohde?

Linkatussa jutussa pari mielenkiintoista pointtia

  1. McCloskey (Opis) arvioi että rosterikiintiö laskisi keskimäärin 54%, jopa vähän enemmän kuin mitä on näkynyt. EURANIMI (joka siis eräs EU-lobbareista (European Association of Non-Integrated Metal Importers & Distributors)) esittää huolta edustamiensa tahojensa puolesta selvästä rosterihintojen noususta
  2. Vihdoinkin joku vähän murehtii tuostakin, että eihän siitä mitään tule että vähän rajoitetaan esim teräksen tuontia jos tuotavat välituotteet ja lopputuotteet ovat vastaavan kohtelun ulkopuolella. En kylläkään ole perehtynyt onko näin, mutta jokin mekanismi pitäisi olla niin tuonnissa. Parin viikon takaisessa Talouselämässä muistelen että Harvia kertoi että US-viennissä pitää teräskontentti erotella, ja se osuus saa korkeamman tariffin

Looking at specific steel product categories, stainless steel imports are subject to an annual quota reduction averaging around 54%, according to McCloskey’s calculations. Christophe Lagrange, executive board member at stainless steel trading association EURANIMI spoke to McCloskey on the potential impact, describing the measures as a “radical game changer.”

“We expect this will cause a swift increase in domestic stainless steel prices, which could be a terrible blow for the downstream manufacturing industry as it will still have to compete against much cheaper imports of finished products,” said Lagrange. “While this measure is ‘positive’ in the short term for mills and distribution, we expect stainless steel consumption to decrease in the longer term as manufacturing is shifted outside of the EU against an instream of a wide range of new imports of downstream stainless products – all compounded by a global loss of competitiveness for EU manufacturers in our export markets.”

Indeed, these factors could ramp domestic steel prices beyond prior expectations, and create significant inflationary pressures within Europe’s steel-consuming industries, such as the automotive sector, which according to EUROMETAL’s analysis is the destination for 40% of total steel derivative imports.

“Automobile manufacturers source approximately 90% of their direct steel purchases in the EU and are most concerned about the inflationary impact that an effective continuation of the safeguard will have on European market prices,” said ACEA. “The Commission needs to look individually at sectors like automotive where, despite a heavy reliance on domestic steel supply, our manufacturers still need to import certain quantities and qualities.”

Speaking to McCloskey, a high-level representative for a core European OEM stressed the need for a big-picture perspective:

“We celebrate that the Commission has finally looked into appropriate protections for their steel industry, but the measures lack necessary actions on steel-containing goods,” the source said. “The proposal will drive domestic steel prices higher on import restrictions, which could become blocked entirely with CBAM on top, but this will only make the import of steel derivatives, like components, even more attractive.

“Imported components are already cheaper than domestic equivalents,” the OEM source said. “The Commission needs to zoom-out and look at the steel industry as a whole, not just patch defenses for steelmakers. We need to send a clear signal to EU authorities that they will swiftly look into steel derivatives, because right now we have no choice but to default to [downstream] imports to stay competitive.”

8 tykkäystä