Orion - What is the future outlook?

[PorssiPatruuna]

@JNivala

So there are, for example, those couple of cheaper and better ones, quite clearly in my opinion.

Our views on Pfizer and Novo Nordisk in relation to Orion are actually quite similar , but I have still come to partly different conclusions in these comparisons or I see more uncertainties in the air:

1. The Orion Case

All of Orion’s divisions are comfortably profitable, and Nubeqa is selling like hotcakes. The patents for the latter expire in the 2030s, but its areas of use could potentially be expanded to new targets, and with the company’s other parts operating, expenses remain reasonable, even if not as brilliant as today. This is my own vision, which may prove right or wrong:)

2. The Pfizer Case in relation to Orion

It’s cheap, but several patents (about 25% of revenue) are expiring soon, and the entire vaccine business in the USA is under political risk. In addition, for example, the gigantic acquisition of Seagen with its cancer drug focus is still an enigma from a profit perspective. Orion is clearly more expensive, but its robust earning model continues for several years longer, and Pfizer’s outlook is cloudier.

3. The Novo Nordisk Case in relation to Orion

It’s cheap, at least compared to before, and many see the share price drop as an overreaction. A stable and profitable company. But, for example, Goldman Sachs estimates that consensus forecasts will have to be revised downwards further until 2028. Morgan Stanley is pessimistic due to fiercely intensifying competition in weight loss drugs, and additionally, MS considers the probability of success for Novo’s Alzheimer’s investments to be rather small. Novo is clearly cheaper than Orion, but even Novo’s near-future prospects raise conflicting assessments. Time will tell which camp of forecasters is right, but Orion’s future prospects are at least a degree brighter until the 2030s.

4. The Kenvue Case in relation to Orion

I don’t know Organon, but the other candidate mentioned by @Clark_Kent, Kenvue, is a real wild card. Both Trump and the US Secretary of Health have accused the company’s product of causing autism, causing the share price to plummet. Science does not recognize Trump’s and the minister’s tinfoil hat speeches, and the company is trying to overcome the realization of political risk. If it were to succeed in this, one could now get a potential share price recovery at a low price. It vividly reminds me of Orion’s dip a few years ago when, among other things, operations in Russia ceased, and the stock could be bought for 30+ €.

Thanks @JNivala and @Clark_kent for the good answers!

[Sijoittaja-alokas]

Juha Varis and a tweet related to Nubeqa \n\n\nhttps://x.com/JuhaVaris/status/1977677892416143670\n\n

[Dissidentti]

Exclusive Commercial License for Abzena’s Antibody to Orion - Inderes

Orionille yksinoikeudellinen kaupallinen lisenssi Abzenan vasta-aineelle -...

[Sijoittaja-alokas]

Here is from Antti Siltanen Orion’s pre-earnings report, which will publish its Q3 report tomorrow, i.e., Tuesday.
In Q3, the company faces a strong comparison period due to one-off milestone payments, against which the figures will weaken. However, Nubeqa’s sales growth is progressing in the background, and the long-term earnings growth story is advancing. In connection with this update, we are moving our estimate for Nubeqa’s final EUR 180 million milestone payment earlier to this year, which significantly impacts the forecasts for the end of this year and next year. However, the transfer of this item has no impact on the fair value of the share, so we reiterate our recommendation (reduce) and target price of 68 euros.

Orion Q3'25 -ennakko: Vastassa vahva vertailukausi - Inderes

[PorssiPatruuna]

In the corresponding period, Orion received large milestone payments, so this quarter’s figures are lighter. Otherwise, steady progress. I still need to examine it more closely, and @Antti_Siltanen’s analysis is coming👌

However, the markets apparently expected some miracle, as the stock price is plummeting😳 Time to fill the portfolio?

Orion-konsernin osavuosikatsaus tammi–syyskuu 2025 - Inderes

[Dissidentti]

Core business performing, variations in delivery timings

CEO Liisa Hurme praises the good development of the core business. All major business operations continued on a growth trajectory in the third quarter. The reported revenue of the Innovative Medicines unit decreased from the comparison period due to the significant milestone payments mentioned above, but Nubeqa’s growth was strong again.

“The Generics and Consumer Health unit also continued its robust growth. The growth rates of the Branded Products and Animal Health units were slightly more moderate than in previous quarters. This is largely explained by the timing of some deliveries, meaning it’s a normal variation inherent in our business,” Hurme states.

Orionin liikevaihto ja liiketulos ilman etappimaksuja kohenivat – yhtiö...

[Verneri_Pulkkinen]

Here is a link to today’s earnings webcast.

Orion, Webcast, Q3'25 - Inderes

[veronmaksaja]

As for Nubeqa, only one more milestone payment is due, but the royalties from its sales probably form a significant part of Orion’s results. It would be interesting to know the magnitude of those Nubeqa royalties this year, and of course also what is anticipated to be received from them in 2026? Is there any actual information available somewhere, and not just educated guesses?

[Verneri_Pulkkinen]

Here’s Liisa’s interview.

Orion Q3’25: Tuotekehitysputken kapeus mietityttää - Inderes

And a reminder, ROAST is in two weeks!

ROAST Orion 10.11.2025 - Inderes

[PorssiPatruuna]

Here are @Antti_Siltanen’s comments as a supplement: “the big picture is progressing as it should”

Orionin osavuosikatsaus pelästytti sijoittajat – Analyytikko rauhoittelee

[Sijoittaja-alokas]

Antti has prepared a new company report on Orion following the Q3 release.
Orion’s Q3 offered no surprises, and the reported figures were largely in line with consensus estimates. The latest data points suggest a gradual calming of Nubeqa’s very rapid growth phase. Our forecasts include only minor downward adjustments based on our updated estimate of Nubeqa’s sales growth coefficient. Based on the forecast changes, we revise our target price to 66 euros (previously 68) and raise our recommendation to ‘add’ (previously ‘reduce’), as the share price decline has improved the risk-reward ratio.

Orion Q3'25: Tasaisen varma neljännes - Inderes

[Antti_Siltanen]

@PorssiPatruuna

The markets apparently expected some miracle, as the price is coming down with a crash😳 Time to fill the portfolio?

Indeed, the market reaction was surprisingly strong, given that the result was quite close to consensus, with revenue slightly below. With the growth of Nubeqa sales, we are currently likely on the upper curve of the S-curve, where the growth rate slows down. In these situations, markets easily assume the continuation of rapid growth linearly, and the slowdown comes as a negative surprise. The opposite situation was last summer when growth accelerated, and the markets (and I) were constantly behind. This is just my own speculation about market behavior and what could explain the reaction.

@veronmaksaja

It would be interesting to know the magnitude of Nubeqa royalties this year, and of course, what is anticipated from them in 2026? Is there any real information available somewhere, not just educated guesses?

There can’t be anything but educated guesses beforehand. The best estimates are probably with Bayer, but they don’t disclose them very precisely externally. In my Excel, Orion’s Nubeqa revenue this year is ~630 MEUR, of which royalties are ~440 MEUR. For next year, 740 MEUR, which in my calculations would mean close to 3 billion in total Nubeqa sales.

[Verneri_Pulkkinen]

Reminder. Next Monday is Orion’s ROAST!

ROAST Orion 10.11.2025 - Inderes

Tricky audience questions are very welcome in this thread or privately to me.

[PorssiPatruuna]

@Verneri_Pulkkinen

Tricky audience questions are very welcome

Off the cuff, for example, these:

-Orion also has acquisitions as an option on its work list. Are active surveys being conducted in this matter, and what kind of targets would be in question?

-What is going on in Orion’s (research) units opened in the USA and Britain? Are they worth their price, i.e., have results started to emerge?

-The latest Trump tariff situation and the White House’s intentions to force drug prices down, even by force, in Orion’s main market in the USA?

-Progress of Orion’s global strategy?

-A very simplified presentation of Orion’s research pipeline outlook (so that others besides medical professors understand it:). Is a slump expected after Nubeqa’s patents expire, or is there something new and promising already in the pipeline?

-Novo Nordisk and Astrazeneca are both opening AI drug development collaborations with Nvidia. Massive amounts of money and resources are being used. How can Orion, as a much smaller player, compete in the AI race, and what is Orion concretely doing in this field?

[Jummijammi2]

Has Orion or Nubeca studied synergy with immunotherapy, e.g., bexmarilimab?

[Viskisieppo]

Over the past year or so, Orion has published many announcements regarding antibody-related collaborations with several different companies (e.g., Alligator Bioscience, Abilita Therapeutics, Invenra, Glykos, Abzena). Is the setup in these similar to that with Nubeqa and Bayer? What kind of benefits are sought from working with these companies? Are these planned to be brought into the drug development pipeline? Apparently, cancers would still be in focus?

[Onesp]

One thing that concerns me is this plan to fill the pipeline with biological drugs.

Orion does not have a single proprietary biological drug that has received marketing authorization, nor a single one in clinical trials, and yet it now seems that Orion’s focus is shifting to them, as all the announced future “candidates” are biological.

In addition to the new R&D opening in Cambridge, many research collaborations and licensing agreements with other companies related to biological drugs have been announced recently. Apparently, previous expertise was limited to a unit of about 20 people in Turku (press release).

Will Orion succeed in advancing these projects if this capability is only now being established? Does Orion have the expertise to assess the potential of these drugs? Are they building the plane while flying it here (“build the plane while flying it”)?

Would this be a suitable question for a roast?

However, research into biological drugs requires different expertise than with traditional small molecules, although there are certainly commonalities.

[tero.vierros]

It seems the expiration of those Nubeqa patents is causing a lot of concern. However, it was claimed on some international patent forum that Nubeqa’s patents provide protection from parallel products until February 27, 2038. It would be nice to hear from Orion if this is true.

[jerej]

Here you can find a list of Nubeqa patents and their expiration dates: https://www.drugs.com/availability/generic-nubeqa.html.

The compound patents appear to last until 2030-33, and thereafter formulation patents until 2036-42, depending on the patent.

[Tuukka_Hirvonen]

Hi, below is an excerpt from Bayer’s 2024 annual report, showing the expiration dates of Nubeqa’s molecule patent in key markets. Typically, efforts are made to build other types of patent protection for drugs as well (such as formulation patents or indication patents). However, the molecule patent is the most central and strongest protection, which is why it is usually referred to.