Danske Bank Upgrades Orion to Buy (Hold), Target Price 57 Euros - BN
Thursday, January 23, 2025 at 09:10
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The US Secretary of the Treasury recently announced that all imported products will initially face a 2.5% tariff. This will be increased monthly up to 20%.
Secondly, D. Trump announced additional supplementary tariffs, which will be imposed, for example, on imported medicines. The exact level is still unclear.
Considering that Orionâs main revenue driver is the export of Nubeqa to the US, these are certainly not small matters.
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While rising prices in the US can certainly be negative, I would assume that health insurance covers medication costs there, and thus, at least an individual patient would not, to my understanding, face the price increase themselves. But perhaps insurance companies are setting some conditions for drug selection or similar? After all, Nubeqa has competitors there.
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Orion has partnered with Invenra Inc (USA) with cancer treatments in mind. The subject matter is complicated enough that drawing conclusions must be left to those more knowledgeable. Invenraâs website has a detailed report in the âour scienceâ section - if only one could understand something. Orion thus published a press release; Invenraâs website does not have information on the matter in its âpress releaseâ section.
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That is probably further development for the bispecific antibodies bought by Orion from Alligator Bio. In my opinion, that Invenra technology (B-Body) is mainly a method suitable for enhancing the production of bispecific antibodies. In B-Body, mutations have been made in the binding parts of the antibodies, which prevent the formation of monospecific versions. Those mutations are probably present in all bispecific antibodies, but presumably, the B-Body method is better than others in terms of production yield (I havenât delved into this more deeply).
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Good, but why are ordinary investors (Private Investor) not allowed to follow this online? Itâs a normal practice for many companies.
Equal treatment of shareholders is fundamental!
As a supplement, here is an excerpt from the law, i.e., how is it possible to favor institutional investors over others? âThe principle of equal treatment of shareholders is a key principle guiding the operations of a limited liability company, which defines the relationships between the limited liability company and its shareholders. The principle ensures that the companyâs governance is fair and equitable and that shareholders are treated equally and are not discriminated against.â
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Hi, the webcast will be open to everyone - just as has been our practice before.
Apologies for the wording of the Save the Date invitation, which indeed might give the impression that the webcast would also be only for analysts, institutional investors, and the media. Weâll learn from this and phrase the message more clearly in due course when the official invitation and registration instructions are published.
Glad to hear thereâs interest. Welcome to follow and participate online!
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Stock Exchange Release
Orion Plc: Notification in accordance with Chapter 9, Section 10 of the Securities Markets Act (BlackRock, Inc.)
February 12, 2025 at 9:00 p.m.
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ORION PLC
STOCK EXCHANGE RELEASE â MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS NOTIFICATION
FEBRUARY 12, 2025 AT 9:00 P.M.
Orion Plc: Notification in accordance with Chapter 9, Section 10 of the Securities Markets Act (BlackRock, Inc.)
Orion Plc has received a notification in accordance with Chapter 9, Section 5 of the Securities Markets Act, according to which the proportion of Orion shares owned directly, indirectly and through financial instruments by BlackRock, Inc. and its funds has, as of February 11, 2025, exceeded five (5) percent of all shares in Orion Plc.
It appears in the morning news flow that imported medicines, including Nubeqa, will face a 25% tariff.
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Well, in the USA, the medicine will become 25% more expensive for consumers and insurance companies. So what. Thatâs Americansâ own choice.
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Here are Anttiâs preview comments on Orion releasing its Q4 report on Tuesday at 12:00 PM. 
The key figures for the quarter are already largely known based on the positive profit warning issued in January. The main interest of the report, in addition to the guidance, is what exactly was behind the strong development at the end of the year.
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The figures are exceptionally strong, with the familiar Iisiheileri and Nubeqa as drivers, even though the veterinary side is also recovering. But will the fireworks continue in the future?
The dividend is raised so minimally that, considering inflation, it is a de facto reduction (as it was last year). But even more importantly, that research investments generate new marketable products.
How will Orionâs globalization strategy fare, and what will be done with pain medication research (which fizzled out last year)? And what about Donaldâs intentions to slap 25% tariffs on medicines? We hope for answers to these, among other things, in interviews.
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Great result! One could also ask if the use of AI changes the competitive landscape of drug development and what Orionâs capability is to respond to this?
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Fledgling NubeqaÂź is just flapping its wings.
The drugâs supply reliability is in order. NubeqaÂź-indications are constantly expanding further = diagnoses or symptoms for which the patient uses the drug are expanding => the use of the drug will expand in the future. Partner company Bayer has repeatedly raised its sales estimates.
In addition, Orion has a couple of products in the early stages of its product pipeline.
Could this be a reason for an even longer rise 
For the first time in history, Orion has a blockbuster drug, NubeqaÂź. A blockbuster drug is a very popular drug whose annual sales are at least one billion dollars for the company selling it.
NubeqaÂź becomes first-ever Orion-originated blockbuster
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Orion is a growth company 
Orionâs revenue surged, profit remained strong â Driven by Nubeqaâs strong momentum
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Here is Liisa Hurmeâs interview and the topics below, timestamped. I finally feel like I know Orion at a level where I left out my notes in this interview, which led to a couple of extra rambling questions. 
00:00 Year 2024
02:20 ERP
03:18 Write-downs
05:32 Generic drugs
06:40 Drug development pipeline
07:50 Guidance 2025
09:35 Tariffs
11:59 Dividend
13:22 Japan office
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Here is Mr. Siltanenâs company report on Orion immediately after Q4.
Orionâs strong revenue and earnings were already known following the January outlook upgrade. Several factors were behind the growth, but the most significant driver, as usual, was Nubeqa, whose sales have accelerated faster than market expectations for the entire year 2024. The guidance for 2025 was slightly better than our expectations. We are raising our revenue and, above all, earnings forecasts due to Nubeqaâs high-margin and growing sales. However, the rapid share price increase has weakened the future return/risk ratio.
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Medicine Invented in Finland Conquers the World â Companyâs Stock Price on the Rise
Orionâs Nubeqa cancer drug already has marketing authorization in 85 countries.
Pharmaceutical company Orionâs stock price has been on a robust upward trend for less than a year. Orionâs B-share has climbed from around 33 euros in mid-April last year to approximately 54 euros.
Few Finnish listed companies have been able to present such impressive figures recently.
Behind this is the global success of the Nubeqa prostate cancer drug, jointly developed by Orion and its German partner Bayer.
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Quite a lot of insider sales.
Tariff threat? But donât the Americans also have to buy it and pay the tariff-increased price, as there are no alternatives because Orion holds the patent for this?
Not much discussion has been seen about this either:
âAt worst, the EUâs Urban Wastewater Treatment Directive could lead to an additional cost of almost a billion.â
âWith the EU directive concerning the purification of urban wastewater, which came into force at the beginning of the year, the pharmaceutical industry and the cosmetics and hygiene industry are obliged to pay, in the producer role of so-called extended producer responsibility, the investment and maintenance costs arising from the removal of micropollutants. The estimated costs exceed the Commissionâs estimate by several tens of times. Rising costs threaten to jeopardize the availability of medicines and weaken the EUâs competitiveness.â
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It is possible to include import duties in the prices, but if that is not possible, the alternative is producing medicines in a local factory.
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