Antti’s report provided a good breakdown of where this year’s strong results are coming from. Nubeqa royalties grew by 80%, and the highest royalty tier was reached as early as Q2. However, this brings to mind one question regarding longer-term forecasts.
Now that the highest royalty tier has been reached, the same benefit will not repeat next year. Going forward, royalty growth will effectively come from the sales growth of Nubeqa. Nevertheless, Inderes forecasts that Orion will continue to see revenue growth of 11.1% and an increase in operating profit to 805 million euros by 2027.
At the same time, Astellas is preparing for the expiry of Xtandi’s patent protection starting in 2027. Xtandi is a major drug, and it is used in largely the same stages of prostate cancer treatment as Nubeqa. When generic enzalutamide enters the market, it will be a clearly cheaper option for payers.
I don’t think Nubeqa’s sales will dry up. It has its own clinical advantages, and patient numbers may well continue to grow. But if Bayer is forced to lower prices or offer larger discounts, Orion’s royalties could grow much more slowly, even if patient numbers increase. After all, royalties are based on sales in euros, not on the number of patients.
It would be interesting to hear how this has been factored into Inderes’ forecasts:
- When is generic enzalutamide expected to properly enter the US market?
- What kind of impact is it assumed to have on Nubeqa’s net price in 2028–2031?
- Will the growth in patient numbers be enough to compensate for potential price decreases?
- Does the target price of 83 euros include the assumption that Nubeqa’s royalty growth will slow down even before the expiry of Nubeqa’s own patent?
The 2026 figures are, without a doubt, very strong. I am mainly wondering how well the earnings level for 2026–2027 reflects Orion’s longer-term earnings capacity if the competitive landscape begins to shift from 2027 onwards.