Well, why not!
It took the competing TEAD inhibitor VT3989 ~5 years to get from the start of the clinical program to the beginning of Phase 3. On this timeline, Orion’s Phase 3 could be completed by ~2034 and launch, for example, in 2035. In theory, of course, an accelerated marketing authorization could be sought after Phase 2 in a very optimistic scenario.
The probability of success (PoS) could be around 15%. Some de-risking has occurred based on Phase 1 tolerability, but proof of efficacy is still practically missing, as is broader safety data, of course.
Regarding peak sales estimates, monotherapy for mesothelioma and EHE alone would likely be quite moderate, perhaps a few hundred million USD per year. If these indications allow for expansion into other Hippo-driven cancers, we might be talking about the 500-1000 MUSD range. In a more bullish scenario, as a combination therapy, it could reach larger patient populations and blockbuster status. Let’s pull a figure out of the hat, say 2,000 MUSD.
The present value of these types of cash flows revolves roughly around 1-5% of Orion’s market capitalization, so I haven’t made any particularly serious calculations because the weight is small. But by the end of Phase 2 at the latest, this candidate will start to carry weight on the scales—provided the results are good, that is.