Any comments on the result? With these numbers, it will stay in my portfolio, even though the real turnaround is still in the distant future.
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Oriola’s struggles are sad. An unbelievable number of negative things, one after another. I’m enough of a masochist to stay on board until the Q1 earnings report. The dividend probably won’t withstand another poor performance this year. I already expected a dividend cut now.
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I’m also on board (though in my own portfolio, this is in the green; I expected the boat to turn in Q4 2019). It’s a bold move not to cut the dividend. Apparently, management is confident that the successes in cost control in Finland will transfer to Sweden in 2020? The report emphasized revenue growth, but that has grown pretty much 1:1 with the market. Well, on the other hand, it hasn’t fallen behind either?
I tried to take a position on OST (Osakesäästötili - Share Savings Account) but it didn’t go through. I’m sure there will be price drops and I’ll be able to get a share for a couple of euros on the other side next week. When the turnaround comes, it comes, and in a more defensive sector, I would assume valuation will also come. Risk and reward go hand in hand?
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Tuulipuku (Windbreaker-man) scrutinized Oriola’s key figures, as companies like this, which have lost their valuation but seem safe in their industry, naturally attract us windbreaker-men. However, Tuulipuku is not at all sure if all the bad news has been flushed out of the company or if there will be more festering sores that need to be lanced. Since there is already a trend in the current market away from defensive companies towards cyclical ones, I don’t really see anything preventing Oriola from dipping well below two euros if more unpleasant news emerges.
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Oriola will not rise until the new Enköping logistics center is up and running and the old overlapping unit with its double costs is shut down. If/when that happens, the company’s financial performance could improve quickly.
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It currently looks relatively defensive. It even went into positive territory, at least momentarily. It’s hard to see how the virus could weaken the result. It’s also noteworthy that the management team bought shares earlier this week.
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Yeah, those purchases sow a small seed of trust https://www.oriola.com/fi/julkaisut/porssitiedotteet/2020/muutoksia-oriola-oyjn-johtoryhmassa/
Shouldn’t this corona pandemic be a boon for pharmaceutical wholesaler Oriola? Volumes should be going up, not down.
This is what I’m wondering too. It would be interesting to hear @Petri_Kajaani’s view on why the market would melt down from under Oriola right now. Supply difficulties could be one reason if employees are sick at home. What other factors?
Pharmacies will probably not be closed in Finland or Sweden and online shopping will probably work as well. There might be a temporary decline in demand for over-the-counter products if people’s movement decreases?
On the other hand, hoarding can cause a spike in demand.
The general return expectation of the stock market rises when prices fall, so Oriola will also fall, even if nothing happens to the business. Whether it has fallen too much is another matter.
As for the coronavirus, one would think that the older population would consume more medicines. Thus, if the deaths caused by the coronavirus become significant and primarily affect the oldest segment of the population, it could theoretically be reflected in the pharmaceutical business. This might be too far-fetched.
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I’d also like to hear an opinion on this. We’ve come down 25% with everyone else, but what’s the biggest risk here now, especially if China is slowly returning to normal?
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Isn’t this a strong buy? One would think the fundamentals are strongly on Oriola’s side.
"FINNISH pharmaceutical wholesalers Oriola and Tamro, primarily responsible for pharmaceutical distribution in Finland, report having received a record number of drug orders from pharmacies in recent days.
Order volumes have increased by over 50 percent from the normal level. Such order volumes have never been experienced before in the history of Finnish pharmaceutical distribution. The increased demand particularly concerns fever and pain medications. High consumer demand and the peak in pharmacy orders to wholesalers have caused a temporary challenge for drug deliveries from wholesalers to pharmacies."
The same information from Oriola’s website:
"Both pharmaceutical wholesalers have implemented their full picking and distribution capacity, as well as other special solutions supporting delivery capability. Deliveries will resume immediately after the weekend, allowing pharmacy stocks to be replenished. For now, both operators are prioritizing medicines in their deliveries to restore normal availability.
The pharmaceutical wholesalers emphasize that there is currently no shortage of medicines in Finland. The stock situation of medicines is good, and imports are functioning normally. In addition, pharmaceutical wholesalers have a substantial buffer stock of medicines based on the statutory obligation to maintain emergency stockpiles."
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With Oriola, mere demand is not enough; you still have to wonder if they’ll deliver anything. But we’re in for now, at least.
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If Oriola could get things rolling, it would have potential. The stock is so low now that it might even be an interesting acquisition target.
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Knowing Oriola, this will still stand out as a reason for business weakness even five years from now. 
Soon we humans will have cabinets full of medicines and other goods. How many of those hoarded products will actually be used in the end?
Then, when the situation normalizes, so to speak, there will be no need to go shopping for a long time. This will certainly create a consumption peak and may be of some benefit from an earnings perspective.
However, the sharp decline in demand will then reverse the situation again. It’s ridiculous. Prices can, of course, be temporarily raised, but it’s unlikely that raising the margins on hand sanitizers will benefit anyone beyond the pharmacy’s bottom line.
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The thing about it is that Oriola’s coronavirus situation is unlikely to trickle down to the bottom line. Oriola’s business doesn’t scale at all, even if volumes rise significantly. Still, there are always earnings disappointments no matter how things are.
Perhaps it even decreases as costs rise. And when the situation normalizes, volumes will decrease, so there’s also a risk of operating profit declining.
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Oriola seems to be in the green on this down day 