Last week, Nordea pegged Olvi’s fair value at EUR 40.9. EPS estimates for 2020–2022 are EUR 2.03, 2.33, and 2.46, with ROE estimated at 15.4–16.4%.
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Thanks Teisho
Nordea will soon have to move their stakes as it was decided today at 42.4 EUR 
I’ve noticed that OP often has a bit more generously staked guesses available. Does anyone know why?
It’s so quiet here that I’ll just mention that I walked Olvi out in two batches for 42.7€ (the last batch today) and now I’m left with Sandels from this favorite company. But it tastes good when you get to enjoy the steam of Harvia 
I intend to return to being an owner of Olvi a bit later, but sometimes you have to lighten up. However, with these shares, I did go and see the Corona lows, and for a novice like me, it warms my heart that I managed to relax my nerves with a small profit. Good luck with your trades and Olvis to everyone.
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Oddly enough, I bought it in 2018 for what I thought was quite an expensive price. I haven’t been able to add to it because it hasn’t dipped at all. That’s how foolishly I’ve thought. From that expensive purchase price, it has now come up about 40%. This might suffer when interest rates start to rise, as it can be considered a bond stock.
There will hardly be anything very bad in the earnings report, the share of restaurant sales is probably only about 5%. In Belarus, there seem to be no restrictions at all. Of course, there will be a downturn due to tourism, but we’ll hear about that later.
Instead, Lidl’s BEER lll and Pirkka and Rainbow beers have probably been carried home quite well alongside branded products. And then people have stumbled and praised themselves while drunk.
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… And did those expensive, higher-margin products stay on the shelves? Revenue at the expense of profit? I’m not sure if this change in purchasing behavior is a good thing. Of course, it will level out for now.
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Olvi’s subsidiary’s rye whiskey won an award in Germany, which might help with export efforts. Must taste it sometime.
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There’s some pre-announcement buzz about Olvi (the “wall”) in Arvopaperi. It would have to be a big surprise for the stock to go up tomorrow. I interviewed the retailer network, and sales growth for Olvi products is 20%
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“Restrictions on sales channels caused by the coronavirus pandemic began to affect Olvi’s business from mid-March onwards.” The burning question is, therefore, whether growth in retail sales will be enough to fill the gap caused by the coronavirus. For example, in Belarus, Q2 saw restrictions as daily infection numbers rose to a thousand per day. Looking forward to tomorrow with interest and potential refueling if it starts to decline slightly. Usually, the best buying opportunities are available during the first few minutes.
In February, Olvi reinstated guidance it had given and then withdrawn in April, according to which this year’s “operating profit is expected to remain at a good level compared to the previous year.” Q2 figures show that this practically means rather nice earnings growth: H1 operating profit +8.6%, EPS +9.2%. That works for me.
Yes, a somewhat mixed report. In Q2, we were increasingly dependent on the domestic market and Estonia, with good development in Lithuania but weak in Latvia, and of course, the impact of coronavirus was significant. The current situation in Belarus is naturally concerning in all respects. Olvi’s second-largest market experienced some setbacks, and the unrest further increases short-term risk, even though CEO Aho states in an article published today by Kauppalehti that he does not believe political instability will affect Olvi’s operations in the short term. Well, investors should not underestimate currency risk and other potential threats, even though Olvi’s fundamentals are currently on solid ground. However, growth in the Belarusian market has been one of Olvi’s sharpest competitive advantages.
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Olvi clarifies: the record date for the second installment of the dividend is September 1.
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Referring to the news coverage about Coca-Cola: Those people from Iisalmi are quick on their feet. The product name, however, is not as desired. 
I haven’t tasted it yet.
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Now I’ve taste-tested Hard Seltzer (mango & pineapple). Medicinal, dry. It won’t be among my favorite drinks. Not even close.
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Olvi Q3 numbers tomorrow around 9 AM. Excerpt from Arvopaperi’s (paywall) preview article:
Factset’s data includes forecasts for Olvi from Nordea and OP. The average forecast of two analysts for the third quarter’s operating profit is 18.7 million euros, compared to 19.1 million euros in operating profit a year ago.
Earnings per share are expected to weaken from 0.82 euros to 0.75 euros according to forecasts.
Analysts estimate that net sales decreased slightly, from 113.8 million euros to 111.7 million euros. Significant sales growth is expected from Finland, but a substantial drop in net sales is expected from Belarus.
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Olvi surprises positively again. Profitable growth, which is not particularly common these days. Things are progressing nicely in Belarus too. Tastes good.
Key figures from Q3:
- Revenue 116.3 MEUR (comparison period 113.6, analyst estimate 111.7).
- Operating profit 21.5 MEUR and 18.5% (comparison 19.1 MEUR and 16.8%, estimate 18.7 MEUR and 16.7%).
- EPS 0.87 EUR (comparison 0.82, estimate 0.75).
No update to guidance.
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Olvi had a strong Q3! It looks like reduced travel has significantly boosted sales in Finland. The coronavirus seems to support Olvi’s business in Finland in some way.
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Correcting myself: the Q3 release did include the short-term outlook, i.e., the guidance restoration.
Olvi’s operating profit for the 2020 financial year is expected to remain at a good level compared to the previous year or grow slightly.
Olvi canceled its guidance on April 30, which it had given on February 27. That original guidance was a notch more cautious than the new guidance given today. So things are going well.
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Olvi’s new product: non-alcoholic Christmas beer
- the market’s first non-alcoholic Christmas beer => responds to the megatrend of health and well-being
- GlobalData beer review: Globally, over 20% of every age group is reducing alcohol consumption
- over 60% of Finns enjoy beer with their Christmas meal
In the summer, in an IS article, Olvi’s marketing director mentioned that Finland’s total market for non-alcoholic beers could easily triple or quadruple from its current level in the short term.
Olvi was also the subject of Pörssihaukka’s article on piksu.net at the end of October.
Olvi is a classic example of a company operating in the everyday consumer sector without attracting attention or speculation, but generating strong business year after year.
It makes high-quality products valued by consumers, expands abroad, invests efficiently and profitably, and performs well in international comparisons in all areas.
A great company – and totally unsexy. The launch of a new beer brand or the opening of a brewery are such boring and intellectually unchallenging topics that they don’t generate clickbait headlines or furious social media debates.
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Olvi is burning through owner’s money by buying its own shares. Wouldn’t it be better to buy microbreweries with that same money?