Here’s a tweet about different countries’ oil reserves 
1 Like
U.S. crude oil has slid again and hit its lowest level since early 2021.
The market is weighed down by the threat of oversupply, production growth in “OPEC+” countries, and expectations of a possible peace in the war in Ukraine. According to the article, falling prices may indicate a slowdown in economic growth.
Ukraine’s attacks on oil infrastructure and U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies would likely be lifted relatively quickly in the event of an agreement, said Jorge Leon, Rystad Energy’s head of geopolitical analysis, in a note to clients.
“This would significantly reduce the risk of near-term Russian supply disruptions and allow a sizeable volume of Russian oil currently stored on water to return to the market,” Leon said. Russian oil stored on water is currently estimated at around 170 million barrels, according to Rystad.
"Key Points
- The oil market is under pressure this year as OPEC+ members have rapidly ramped up production after years of output cuts.
- Investors are also pricing in lower geopolitical risk on a possible peace agreement in Ukraine. Falling oil prices could also signal a slowing economy."
2 Likes
The tweet below presents the oil and gas markets and shows why the energy market is clearly divided into different segments.
It covers the value chain, business models, risks, and trading opportunities associated with each in a very concise and simplified way. The purpose is likely to help the reader grasp where different price movements come from and how profits are generated in the energy sector.
https://x.com/jackprandelli/status/2001677885329834300
2 Likes
Over 70 percent of oil reserves are in OPEC countries, and they are managed by national oil companies, such as Aramco.
https://x.com/jackprandelli/status/2002161485875687629
2 Likes
Oil prices have risen as the US tightened its grip on Venezuelan oil exports.
The US declared a blockade against Venezuela and, among other things, seized a large vessel carrying a cargo of oil. Venezuela sells most of its oil to China, which naturally criticized these actions in strong terms.
According to experts, the decisive factor now is, among other things, how effective and long-lasting the blockade will ultimately be, as there is generally plenty of oil available on the market otherwise, etc.
1 Like
According to the article below, oil prices have remained stable after several days of gains.
Prices are supported by tensions between the United States and Venezuela, which could restrict supply, as well as stronger-than-expected economic growth in the US. Oil inventories have grown unexpectedly and, in addition, the Christmas holidays are slowing down trading, but geopolitical risks are keeping the markets on alert.
API figures released late Tuesday showed U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose by about 2.4 million barrels in the week ended Dec. 19, confounding expectations for a draw and marking a reversal from the sharp decline reported a week earlier.
1 Like
Here is a piece by SalkunRakentaja’s Jorma Erkkilä regarding oil and its prices.
BOK Financial’s analyst Dennis Kissler states that the fundamental problem of the market remains the same. ”Excessive inventories and a slow recovery in demand will keep prices under pressure for a long time,” Kissler assesses.
While Middle East tensions and Nigerian unrest have momentarily supported the price, their impact has remained short-lived. Many analysts believe that stabilizing price levels requires a clear pickup in demand or new production cuts.
Subheadings:
-
Oil organization and the United States increase production
-
Long-term price pressures will not ease
2 Likes
The article below discusses oil and the year 2025 + the piece also takes a brief look at the following year.
Oil prices slid because supply began to flood the market and there were economic concerns too. 
OPEC+ kept pumping, and at the same time, talk of tariffs weighed on the mood.
Geopolitical dramas were also bubbling in the background; Ukraine, Iran–Israel, sanctions, etc.
John Driscoll, managing director of consultancy JTD Energy, expects geopolitical risks to support oil prices even though market fundamentals point to oversupply.
“Everybody’s saying it’ll get weaker into 2026 and even beyond,” he said. “But I wouldn’t ignore the geopolitics, and the Trump factor is going to be playing out because he wants to be involved in everything.”
1 Like
The article below mentions how oil prices fell right at the start of the new year as investors weighed oversupply while geopolitical risks simmered in the background.
The article also mentions the intensified strikes in the Ukraine war, along with new sanctions targeting Venezuela’s oil sector, unrest in Iran, and Middle East tensions. Still, the market seemed “numb” 
and eyes are turning toward the OPEC+ meeting.
Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sachdeva said the muted price movement reflected a struggle between short-term geopolitical risks and longer-term market fundamentals that point towards oversupply.
1 Like
Recent events might have a slight impact on oil market developments, and of course on a bit more besides.
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2007500910277325260
4 Likes
Truly interesting times ahead for oil.
6 Likes
SKY’s information brief on the topic
3 Likes
Below is a link to an article discussing how the ousting of Maduro could return Venezuelan oil to the market, which would particularly benefit U.S. refineries such as Valero, PBF Energy, and Chevron.
According to the article, the infrastructure would require billions in investment, but recovery is cheaper than new discoveries. In the long run, this would create competition for Canadian heavy oil, such as Suncor + Cenovus, and could narrow their price premium.
Blomma’s chat on the subject.
4 Likes
That was a good briefing from the traditional media. I would have also added that the sulfur content of the oil also has a significant impact (sweet/sour). Venezuelan crude oil is the worst in the world, real crap oil. Processing and refining it is expensive, difficult, and requires a lot of technological expertise and capital. Even in the best imaginable scenario, after the lifting of sanctions and a regime change, increasing oil production by significant amounts would take years and tens of billions in additional investment. The price of oil is low and it is more easily available from other, safer locations (e.g., Argentina), so oil giants are unlikely to have any desire to invest in Venezuela.
It is, of course, a fun meme to think that the long-term oil strategy of the United States is behind military strikes and the capture of Maduro, but the world is not ruled by some cabal of wise men with strategic plans and grand visions. This was even heard earlier as a justification for Putin’s war of aggression: that it would prevent the exploitation of Ukraine’s significant gas reserves and the replacement of Russia as Europe’s leading gas distributor.
Usually, however, it’s just about opportunistically defeating an opponent and scoring easy political points. Trump assassinated Soleimani and successfully bombed Iran with similar precision strikes without much of a larger plan for what would happen after the strikes. As for Venezuela, it’s likely nothing more than a big gorilla hitting an annoying little monkey because it could. This will have no significant impact on oil prices or supply this year.
10 Likes
In the current global political situation, it is, by the way, essential to grasp the difference between a gorilla (black, calm, social, and protects its troop) and an orangutan (orange, lives alone and doesn’t care about its fellow species, makes a big noise, and defends its territory with violence).
6 Likes
Trump is pressuring US oil companies to invest $100 billion in Venezuela after the removal of Nicolás Maduro.
Major companies like Exxon Mobil are reportedly cautious and consider the country uninvestable for now due to legal and financial risks.
Trump promises security guarantees and quick profits, but industry leaders emphasize that a stable framework and significant infrastructure reconstruction will take time.
2 Likes
Jussi Halme has made a great video about oil for us regular folks.
While the Finnish investment scene is buzzing about Donut Lab’s battery technology, I am turning my gaze back to “old and dirty” oil. Why? Because oil is not just a commodity – it’s a weapon of global politics that determines inflation, interest rates, and your purchasing power right now.
In this video, we break down the new, complex puzzle of the oil market:
The USA’s new role: Why is Washington eyeing Venezuela’s oil reserves and how is it pressuring Russia?
OPEC+ in crisis: How are producer countries balancing between oversupply and price pressures?
An investor’s macro tool: Why does the price of oil affect your portfolio, even if you don’t own a single energy stock?
Cost structure: Saudi Aramco vs. Western giants – who turns a profit at a price of 50 dollars?
Oil isn’t disappearing; it’s becoming more volatile. Watch the analysis of what is actually happening in the oil markets and why it’s more important for investors than ever.
1 Like