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“Deep dive” includes a 37-minute video if you understand Swedish
He mentions the February 5th financial statement as a crucial trigger. In addition to Novo Nordisk then presenting its full-year forecast for 2025, the company will also have had access to the results of the Phase 3 study for six weeks by then. According to Morten Larsen, it is not likely that Novo Nordisk will share detailed information on weight loss for the high-dose Cagrisema group in the financial statement – which is what the market truly demands. It is more likely that the full results will be presented at a conference in June. At the same time, upcoming investor meetings on February 6th and 18th may offer valuable insights.
Currently, the company offers one of the most attractive earnings growth figures, not only in Scandinavia but across the entire healthcare sector.
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Here’s more on how the FDA today, Tuesday, approved Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic for use in the treatment of chronic kidney disease in patients with type 2 diabetes. This expands the drug’s use, as it can now prevent the worsening of kidney disease and reduce the risk of death related to heart disease. Ozempic reduced the risk of severe kidney outcomes by 24 percent compared to placebo.
Ozempic reduced the risk of severe kidney outcomes — including kidney failure, reduction in kidney function, or death from kidney or heart causes — by 24% in diabetic patients with chronic kidney disease compared with a placebo, according to results of a late-stage trial that the approval was based on.
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Q4 forecasts
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I asked Gemini if there’s better information on the matter?
Novo Nordisk has a production facility in the United States, but it is unclear whether it produces enough medicines to meet U.S. demand. Novo Nordisk is a world-leading pharmaceutical company focused on diabetes treatment, and has production facilities in several countries around the world. According to the company’s website, it has 16 production facilities in nine countries, including the United States.
However, it is important to note that the production of medicines is a complex process involving many factors, such as raw material sourcing, manufacturing, packaging, and distribution. Furthermore, the demand for medicines can vary greatly across different countries. For these reasons, it is difficult to say for certain whether Novo Nordisk produces enough medicines in the United States to meet U.S. demand.
However, it is likely that Novo Nordisk produces a significant amount of medicines in the United States, as the United States is one of the company’s largest markets. In addition, Novo Nordisk is committed to ensuring that its medicines are available to all who need them.
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At least in analyst follow-ups, I haven’t seen much speculation about new entrants. Rather, the competitive situation vs. LLY etc. is being discussed.
The consensus, as I understand it, is still that during the next 5 years, NOVO+LLY will take about 95% of the GLP-1 markets.
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JPM has considered that a significant portion of users stop using GLP-1 drugs within a year. Reasons include its side effects (e.g., digestive issues), the frequency of injections, and the weaker efficacy of oral versions in weight loss.
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Novo Nordisk has had its price target lowered by Danske Bank to DKK 880 from DKK 1075 ahead of its financial results on Wednesday, where the recommendation “buy” will be reiterated.
When publishing the annual report, Danske Bank hopes to get answers to a number of questions.
Most notably, there will of course be questions about the recently announced CagriSema phase 3 trial and its lower-than-expected weight loss results. We hope that Novo will be willing to discuss the study design and the impact it had on the results in more detail, the bank writes in the analysis.
In addition, Danske Bank’s analyst also hopes for detailed comments on what Novo will do to avoid losing too much market share to competitor Eli Lilly in 2025, when it seems that the American competitor is ahead in terms of expanding production capacity.
However, there is not much focus from the bank on the financial expectations for 2025, as Novo has already given indications about sales growth, according to Danske Bank.
We do not expect expectations to be a major issue when the company reports, provided we see a top-line forecast that can be interpreted as close to 20 percent, writes Danske Bank.
Novo shares fell 1.7 percent at the opening on Monday to DKK 597.70.
Strong move by Mette to threaten to stop the export of Ozempic and Legos to the USA if Trump tries to take Greenland.
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May I ask if your view has changed since your previous message?
Q4 forecasts
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The drug pipeline around GLP-1 analogues is still very crowded in my opinion, and I think it’s unlikely that Novo has hit upon the best molecule. This is, in my opinion, the biggest risk in the next few years.
In addition, side effects, such as the rare adverse effects on vision currently being investigated, can be molecule-specific, and such a “black swan” could take the drug off the market. This is rarer, of course, but Vioxx is one example.
For example, here is a quickly retrieved low-resolution image of the situation:
Source where the image is better visible.
https://synapse.patsnap.com/blog/glp-1r-therapeutic-target-for-obesity-and-metabolic-disorders?
Of course, it’s constantly more difficult for new drugs to enter the market, but the size of the obesity market is so vast that marketing authorizations are sought, if necessary, from different disease subgroups and then expanded to include the treatment of overweight.
Furthermore, obtaining evidence is fast, as the durations of obesity drug studies are relatively short.
(And a disclaimer, I only occasionally conduct clinical drug trials as a practicing physician, so these are areas at the edge of my expertise)
And further,
I believe that, in general, there is so much randomness involved in the success of pharmaceutical companies due to the nature of drug development that I don’t believe Novo will succeed in capital allocation well enough for shareholder value to continue to grow in the way required by its market value.
For example, Pfizer’s stock price is now lower again than at the turn of the millennium, when Viagra was the company’s blockbuster drug for a few years.
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https://x.com/Th__Nielsen/status/1887033881972310096?s=19
Above forecasts 
Let’s see how the market reads the year’s growth guidance, that was probably already known (?)
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Almost a quarter of Novo’s sales already come from the GLP-1 side. The risks are indeed growing that some “black swan” might appear, perhaps due to broader side effects or similar.
Until then, stock price increases are guaranteed; Eli Lilly’s results are on Thursday.
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Novo mostly surprised market expectations with its strong results, driven particularly by the growing demand for its weight management drug, of course. Sales grew significantly, and the share price is up over 3 percent as of this writing, even though the outlook for next year seems to indicate slightly slower growth.
The company, according to its own words, aims to expand its product range and is currently developing an oral version of its drug, which could offer a competitive advantage. Novo also continues to test new combination products, even though the results of one key study did not fully convince the market. Competition in the sector is intensifying, but the company trusts that its product portfolio is high-quality and diverse, and that its already strong position will keep the sentiment positive.
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JP Morgan lowers price target, but maintains positive recommendation for the stock.
“On Thursday, JPMorgan analysts revised their outlook on Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO) stock, reducing the price target to DKK1,000 from DKK1,050. Despite the adjustment, they maintained an Overweight rating on the company’s shares.”
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Here are other observations after the results:
Morningstar: TP 640 DKK (600) / HOLD
Jyske Bank: TP: 925 DKK (850) / BUY
DZ Bank: TP 630 DKK (637) / HOLD
But this is followed by such a large group of analysts that by looking at the consensus estimates today / on Monday, one can already see the updated situation quite well.
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