There is not something in the water in Denmark, besides the annoying levels of lime that destroys your household applies 
I do also follow Terry Smith’s commentary, and I do agree with him, especially with regard his views of leadership of Novo.
What has most surprised me (in a negative way, and I have as of today lost a lot of money because of this) is the failure of Novo leadership to transit from a traditional pharma company operating in a traditional context to an innovative consumer based market, which sometimes resembles a wild west. I do not blame them for their attempts to navigate the Trump chaos, but they have been ’sleeping at the wheel’.
In essence, the innovation of Novo with the introduction glp-1 to the market might prove to be the downfall of Novo as we know it. I am quite bearish on Novo going forward. Their pipeline is not impressive and I do Cagrisema will not be able to compensate for the loss of patents and the underlying weakness of Wegovy (ex pills). This might result in acquiring assets at unfavorable prices for the Novo shareholders.
My investment thesis of Novo has been wrong. I was naive in trusting that Wegovy would be able to defend some of its market share, both in USA and rest of the world. I thought that since the market is expanding at a rapid pace, there is room for both Novo and Eli. But at the moment, Eli is crushing Novo at all levels. The copycats do not help either. I believe that in the USA Novo is panicking since they changed the Novo USA leadership again. And they hired external people, indicating that there is not proper knowledge within the Novo organization.
With regard to the current Novo ceo ambitions to change the internal culture to a more highly competitive one (mimicking Eli) from a nordic ‘hygge’ culture will not work. Culture is in the fabric of the organization and Denmark is the core of it. Most of people working at Novo will not as such care of where the Novo share is trading, especially the scientists who probably sell their shares once they receive any bonus. My point: the Novo organization will still continue to innovate but their organization is steered by a negative narrative that is reactive instead of being pro active.
Despite being bearish I have not sold my Novo shares, but I have not added either this year. My target is now 3-5 years in the future and I will continuously be patient by not doing anything. Just sitting on my shares. Because I still do that Glp-1 and the evolution of these will be a cornerstone of how society deals with obesity and soon even Kela will subsidize weigh loss treatments because at the end of the day, not treating obesity has not only personal consequences but is will have tremendous negative effects. I read a Yle article (I cant find it now when I am writing this) that already now overweight/obesity costs the Finnish society 2-3 Billions euros per year. And this number is not going to go down, quite the opposite, because look at the statistics of the Western world (the rest of the world has similar trajectory), the majority of people are already overweight.
And despite of Novo’s shortcomings they do sit of a lot of strengths as well. The production scale is impressive, which the generic production companies will soon find out because most of these lack scale at a level of Novo. They still are the number 2 in this segment and since the cost narrative of glp-1 is following the viagra case, that is the return of investments is coming down quickly, the future players (roche, pfizer, astra etc) will have a hard time getting the return they expected some years ago.
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Apologies for the long comment