Let’s keep the thread alive. In three weeks, on May 13th, a sales review will be published. In connection with this, the brewery will report on first-quarter volume development and provide information on market trends, but no financial figures.
Nokian Panimo’s new beers, Keisari Biere Blanc and Keisari Hinode, went on sale on February 2nd. Off the top of my head, the company mentioned during the earnings release at the end of February that the drinks were available in about 400 stores, but that retail coverage would expand significantly by Easter. Discussions at the Annual General Meeting indicated that the products have been well-received. One could assume those product launches have a reasonable impact on Q1 sales.
On March 10th, ten new products were launched in the categories of water, soft drinks, mocktails, long drinks, and ciders. There is no information regarding the growth rate of the number of points of sale for these.
Something that has received less attention is that Keisari lager is on a sales campaign in the S Group from March 4th to May 2nd and is very prominently displayed in stores, at least in the Pirkanmaa region. And the stock is moving. I would assume this has the biggest impact on the quarter’s liter sales development.
I noticed last week already that Evli’s page lists a target price of 3.0 euros for the stock: https://www.evli.com/en/products-and-services/equity-research/companies/nokian-panimo However, in the latest published report, the target price is 2.6 euros, and I can’t think of anything else that would have caused such a jump in a month, so apparently they’ve just made a slip-up while updating the website.
Since analysts estimate their target prices by looking at the valuation levels of peers, it’s interesting to see how Royal Unibrew’s total share price drop of about 30% seen today and yesterday reflects on the target prices of domestic breweries. On the other hand, before the correction, Royal was a company valued at quite high valuation multiples compared to its peers.