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Genovese said Nokia has won significant share in “scale-across” networking, which he described as the hardest of three AI data center fabrics to displace once designed in. Nokia is investing in three U.S. Indium Phosphide laser facilities — in San Jose, Pennsylvania, and a new Chandler, Arizona campus via its NXP acquisition — to secure supply of leading-edge optical components.
Optical Networks makes up about 45% of Network Infrastructure and roughly 20% of total company revenue. Genovese noted Nokia’s trailing twelve-month Optical Networks sales of about $4 billion are roughly in line with competitor Ciena, with both companies positioned as leaders in data center interconnect and scale-across markets. Rosenblatt estimates the broader Optical DCI market, currently around $12 billion, could grow at a roughly 35% compound annual rate to reach $40 billion to $50 billion by 2030.
The analyst also pointed to expansion opportunities in scale-out and scale-up networking, sizing the scale-across total addressable market at more than $20 billion by 2030 on top of the existing $20 billion DCI base. Genovese said Rosenblatt’s 2028 financial estimates assume none of the potential scale-up opportunity, calling it “potential upside to our targets.”