Nokia as an investment (Part 3)

This looks like a smallish deal. It involves the city of Neubrandenburg…

Nokia and Deutsche Telekom AG DTEGY DTEGF have announced the deployment of a multi-vendor Open RAN network in Germany, with collaboration from Fujitsu. The solution, fully integrated into DT’s live commercial network, will provide 2G, 4G, and 5G services to customers in Neubrandenburg, Northern Germany.

6 Likes

I wouldn’t celebrate too much just yet: a weak margin of 6-9% is still forecast for MN’s operating profit in 2026.

1 Like

I’d say it’s not just that, it’s already live there (soon) elsewhere too; I thought the same at first, but I read more closely :nerd_face:
image

@Lexus :arrow_down: emphasis on the words Initial cluster and project will be extended from Q12024 onwards :sunglasses:

22 Likes

https://www.lightreading.com/open-ran/dt-ceo-optimistic-on-open-ran-huawei-still-a-worry

DT has stated that they are investing massively in ORAN in 2024. Huawei has a 60% share of 5G RAN and newer hardware than Ericsson. This means that at least Huawei hardware is now being sidelined, but likely also Ericsson’s older equipment.

A big step forward :+1:

In my opinion, Tommi’s post also confirms that this won’t just be minor tinkering.

24 Likes

Is there any information on whether Nokia has prior experience or expertise in the defense industry or its product requirements? In other words, is Nokia already involved in supplying hardware/software to the defense sector? I’m not an active Nokia follower, but this news somehow caught my attention.

3 Likes

There is a slight discrepancy in the press release regarding the size of that project:

The technology is fully integrated into DT’s live commercial network and the initial cluster will provide 2G, 4G, and 5G commercial services to customers in the Neubrandenburg area of Northern Germany.

Google Maps claims the area is about 86 km2. For context, Helsinki’s size is 214 km2.

On the positive side, at the beginning of this year, DT was not satisfied with Open RAN — at least not with the configuration below.

Multivendor is complicated, as Deutsche Telekom makes clear in its white paper. It’s been using massive MIMO radio units from Japan’s NEC, and less advanced radios from Fujitsu (another Japanese vendor), with baseband software supplied by Mavenir, a US company. If one reads between the lines, this mash-up did not deliver the necessary performance and power efficiency (both of which Deutsche Telekom said are now focus areas).

So, has satisfaction increased now that/if Mavenir’s baseband has been swapped for Nokia?

https://www.lightreading.com/open-ran/dt-says-open-ran-is-not-good-enough-for-wide-area-use

Back in February, the situation regarding Nokia was indeed still like this… Something seems to have changed.

Despite a recent Nokia resurgence, and Tenorio’s view that Nokia now has a “fully compliant open RAN system,” the Finnish vendor warrants not a single mention in Deutsche Telekom’s latest white paper, replete with the names of Asian and US suppliers. So much for a European ecosystem.

14 Likes

Is the cumulative euro value of Nokia’s order intake available anywhere? Some companies (e.g., Metso and Ponsse) report orders received quite clearly (euro amounts, number of machines, etc.), but it’s impossible to gauge the scale from these Nokia order announcements.

3 Likes

Isn’t the Finnish Defence Forces’ M 90 messaging device made by Nokia?

2 Likes

I seem to recall there was at least some cooperation in the Tetra / Virve network:

I think the new public safety networks are based on LTE technology. Was it channel 8 that is reserved for use by the authorities? As I recall, the reasoning was cost savings compared to pro priority technology.

BARRONS

12.12. 2023

Nokia Stock Is Rising. Why a Snub From AT&T May Not Be So Bad.

Nokia said Tuesday that it assumes mobile networks sales will fall in 2024, with AT&T’s snub a key reason. The challenging spending environment and a normalization in India after rapid 5G deployment were other factors, it said.

  • Significantly, Nokia sees further opportunities to increase margins beyond 2026 and still sees the 14% as achievable over the longer term.

“Nokia still sees a path to achieving the at least 14% comparable operating margin target but considering the current market conditions in Mobile Networks, this is deemed a prudent change,” the company said in a statement Tuesday.

There was some good news for Nokia—and its shares—as the company said it has begun rolling out its commercial open RAN network with Germany’s Deutsche Telekom.

XxxXxxxxxxx

News of Deutsche Telekom’s rollout in Germany comes only days after its new 5G rival in Germany, 1&1, switched on its greenfield Open RAN network to start delivering mobile services – see Germany’s 1&1 finally goes head-to-head with 5G rivals.

Following the ignominy of being passed over in favour of its fierce rival Ericsson for AT&T’s Open RAN plans – speculation suggests that the Swedish vendor made the US telco a pricing offer it couldn’t refuse.

  • Getting its Open RAN hands dirty with a real-world deployment at one of Europe’s leading operators will come as a relief to Nokia, which maintains it is a “recognised leader in Open RAN”.

##And it’s another feather in Fujitsu’s Open RAN cap:

9 Likes

Good read…

-Nokia added that it is replacing “the incumbent vendor” (Huawei)

  • speculation suggests that the Swedish vendor made the US telco a pricing offer it couldn’t refuse
11 Likes

Deutsche Telekom is planning more than 3,000 ORAN-compatible antenna sites by the end of 2026.

Edit: Kenelle nämä diilit menevät/menivät? Huawei? Tuohan on jo kesäkuussa, joten luulisi suunnitelmien olevan melko kypsiä.

Telekom is optimizing its mobile network at a total of 430 locations for soccer fans. To this end, it is expanding capacities at existing locations, building new ones or deploying temporary solutions. As a result of these measures, Telekom is strengthening more than 13,000 cells in the mobile network. Nine of the ten European Championship stadiums will receive 5G on the 3.6 gigahertz high-speed frequency.

9 Likes

In the presser, Uitto was asked about market rumors regarding the cooling solutions used by Nokia and whether the AT&T deal fell through because of them. Uitto laughed spontaneously and said there is no truth to this – and added that you can even ask AT&T directly.

After this presser (as well), it is perfectly clear that it was solely and exclusively a matter of price, or as Tommi put it, a financial case.

So, I have one request. To those analysts and other writers who constantly bring up “what Nokia’s technical competitiveness is like now” – this was not about that – so let’s stop this useless spreading of rumors.

image

Something like this.

image
image

Edit: Pekka basically added that the share price is too low. Oh wow. They are not satisfied with it at all.

26 Likes

Price is part of competitiveness. If Ericsson can produce an equivalent product at a lower price, then Nokia’s solution is not competitive.

1 Like

That’s not what this was about. Read back through the thread to understand the premise of the tender. This is a swap where one’s RAN share was 35% and the other’s was 65%.

There is hardly any difference in the manufacturing of Ericsson and Nokia products – or at least it’s very marginal.

17 Likes

Iain Morris has managed to get an interview with Pekka.

If it wasn’t entirely clear why Nokia had to be completely ditched from AT&T’s ORAN, at least according to Pekka, a 1/3 market share base makes for a more expensive conversion than 2/3.

Lum, who wrote on LinkedIn about the fans in Nokia’s equipment—and whose claims Uitto dismissed as a “canard” (hoax)—now knows that Ericsson offered good financing and pricing. The fact that Ericsson offered a better price than before isn’t particularly surprising in a commercial world where products evolve and electronics are involved.

But Lundmark rejects all such explanations and evidently feels there was nothing his company could do once AT&T had decided to give the entire network over to a single vendor. “Our understanding is that this was mainly financially driven,” he told Light Reading during an interview today ahead of an update with investors.

“It’s actually pretty simple,” said Lundmark. “We currently have about one third of their radio network and our Swedish competitor has two thirds. Since they wanted to go for one vendor, it was pretty hard for us. Without knowing exactly what Ericsson offered, the simple math is that if you swap two thirds of the network instead of one third how can you be competitive financially?”

In a research note published on LinkedIn, Lum said AT&T had managed to secure “very favorable per unit pricing on the RAN equipment” and “was also able to leverage substantial VENDOR FINANCING [his caps] from Ericsson for the next five years.” His broad assessment? “AT&T capitalized on vendor weakness to extract favorable financing terms and pricing for the new 5G equipment.”

https://www.lightreading.com/5g/nokia-ceo-speaks-out-on-at-t-s-one-vendor-move-to-ericsson

15 Likes

Webcast and presentation now available on the website

https://www.nokia.com/about-us/investors/investor-relations-events/#progress-updates

15 Likes

Someone estimated that Ericsson could gain as much as a 15% competitive advantage from the weak krona exchange rate, which is not a negligible amount in the overall assessment relative to Nokia. I listened to today’s presentation and I think it’s best to set the AT&T matter aside now and move on to the next things. It was likely a very good decision not to start competing on price, but instead to move the strategy forward systematically and keep the focus on the essentials, and especially on improving profitability.

Uitto’s presentation was excellent and instilled confidence in the future, while Sahgal’s presentation, in my opinion, shed good light on the future potential. Overall, management succeeded well. Now, the board just needs to make the right kinds of decisions to actually improve shareholder value.

24 Likes

Where was this information obtained?