Trading volume seems to be picking up a bit now in May, but at the same time, the share price decline is accelerating. Today, May 15th, the stock hit the €16 price point, meaning exactly ten euros has been wiped off the price since the time of the takeover bid. Next up, we’ll be celebrating the “halving party” at €13.05/share, which will likely be reached during the year-end tax-loss selling at the latest, if not sooner. This same €13 price was also what the esteemed MustiGuru Turpo1 considered to be roughly the fair value of the share.
The number of shareholders is indeed dropping significantly, which can’t really be considered a surprise. The SEB nominee-registered seller still has over 200,000 shares left, and the amount has been decreasing at an average rate of about 10,000 shares per month. At this pace, it would take about 1.5 years—until the end of 2027—before the position is empty. It remains to be seen at what levels the share price will be hovering then.
The company itself seems to be growing quite strongly, but the losses seem to be growing just as much. It’s harder to estimate how much of that loss is “intentional”—i.e., keeping the bottom line in the red on purpose so they can eventually squeeze out the shares at a “fair price.” Making a “loss” certainly contributes to making the stock less attractive, thereby further fueling the price drop. It would be interesting to see how many more shares Sonae could scoop up if they made an offer now at, say, €20/share. I bet there would be quite a few sellers even at that price, though probably not the pension insurance companies. If a new offer were the same as the original—€26.10—you’d think even Varma would “come to their senses” rather than prolonging the inevitable for years to come, but I still wouldn’t bet much on them selling their stake. Almost everyone else would likely accept the offer right now at that original price.