So certainly oil trade, wood trade, maybe gas. A new gas pipeline will certainly not be built. And companies will not invest in Russia for a long time yet. Trust needs to be rebuilt. It is noteworthy that Europe has realized it can manage without Russian products.
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Trust in Russia regarding the durability of agreements is quite low. The timeline and extent to which sanctions will be reduced are completely open. Russia, of course, demands the immediate lifting of all sanctions, which is unlikely to happen. Russiaâs reliability as a trading partner is inconsistent and will affect even the most greedy potential traders. Furthermore, Russia seized considerable assets without compensation or with nominal compensation, which is unlikely to be easily forgiven; too many, too often, have been robbed when doing business with Russians.
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It certainly depends a lot on what kind of peace is achieved. The developments of recent weeks are concerning for Finland and the entire Nordic region. Itâs enough that big money considers it a risk.
If Russia gets its way, pressure on Northern Europe might begin immediately. With the Americans withdrawing from NATOâs security guarantees, we have interesting times ahead. A direct attack is unlikely, but bothersome influence even more so. Finland has already been considered risky in some papers because of the war, what about in the future? It might be that a considerable gloom descends upon Helsinki. I donât consider this likely, but certainly as one option.
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