H1 2025 is behind us, and it’s time to take a peek at what has happened in the portfolio during the second quarter of the year. Volatility increased significantly when Trump announced tariffs. The increased uncertainty was a good time to make small changes to the portfolio, but I assumed the uncertainty would last longer, so I ended up selling companies without managing to put all the freed-up cash back into the market. This raised the question once again during the quarter: does market timing pay off? 
However, the biggest annoyance for the portfolio has been currencies. The euro has strengthened so much against the dollar that even though the share prices of many companies have recovered or are even higher than before, currencies have wiped out the capital appreciation. In fact, the EUR/USD trend is +12% since the beginning of the year. Such a trend already has a significant impact on my own portfolio, as 19% of investments are in USD. The strengthening of the Swedish krona against the euro has also stalled, and the benefit has been only about 2%. I expect that in the long run, the impact of currencies will even out; in the short run, their effect is mostly blood pressure-raising.
Domestic stock picks have performed moderately, yielding returns almost matching the index (OMXHGI25) over the year. Foreign stock picks, on the other hand, have yielded 0% YTD, precisely because of currencies. Total YTD is +7.2%. One cannot be satisfied with this when Hesuli (the Helsinki Stock Exchange) has wiped the floor with us coming and going.
Quite a few moves were made during the quarter.
A buyout offer was announced for Fortnox, so a good return was made from this position in a short time. Of course, this was an isolated case, but it raised the thought once again that even though multiples are high, it doesn’t necessarily mean the company is expensive. The main owners apparently see that there is still significant value creation potential in the company.
Alphabet and Berkshire were also dropped from the portfolio. Their combined result was roughly +/- 0. I re-read the book Berkshire Beyond Buffett, and I got a strong feeling that there are a lot of mediocre companies inside Berkshire that, in my opinion, have no competitive advantage. Buffett is and always will be a role model for me, but that doesn’t mean I have to own Berkshire.
I made a mistake in selling Alphabet, but once again, after selling, I realized how wonderful it is not to own companies that make big headlines every single day. The amount of noise an Alphabet owner has to endure is painful to me. The same pattern repeated when I owned Novo. You can’t always just think about the company’s competitive advantage; you also have to consider the investor’s competitive advantage. I noticed yet another weakness in my own behavior, and this is something that must be taken into account in future company selections.
Atlas Copco also briefly visited my portfolio. I fished it into my portfolio for a few percent during the tariff jitters. The thesis was Europe’s new rise, and Atlas is also an excellent company in its industry. However, I had second thoughts when I wanted to free up space for new companies in the portfolio, and a significant amount of Atlas is held in Investor, which is already the portfolio’s largest holding. These out with a small profit.
I also bought Norbit, and it managed to be in the portfolio for a couple of months. The company seems like a high-quality firm operating in interesting niche industries. Strong performance was rewarded with a fairly strong price rise, and with a two-month hold, a 45% return had to suffice. Although the company seems high-quality, the short visibility of the Oceans segment in particular and deliveries to the defense sector made me a bit cautious.
New positions: Cellavision, Lagercrantz.
Cellavision: Several of my investment cases, especially in medtech companies, are based on the company having market leadership in its own niche. Cellavision is precisely such a company. Growth has fallen short for a couple of years now, but I am cautiously positive about new products, and the small-lab market could wake this company from its sleep. In many ways, the company is Sweden’s equivalent to Revenio, but in blood analysis.
Lagercrantz: There is a group of excellent serial acquirers in Sweden, and Lagercrantz belongs to this expensive and valued group. During the tariff jitters, the company could be bought a bit cheaper, so I started buying. Lagercrantz is accelerating its acquisition pace because the division setup enables more M&A and integration of companies. The company also does continuous work to improve its gross margin, and organic growth is finally waking up again.
The company focuses on high technology and all kinds of other hype, as e.g. ORAX AB acquired early in the year shows. (may contain sarcasm)

In the big picture, the portfolio looks familiar. I added to Copart when earnings were a minor disappointment and the price had been falling. I also bought more of: Harvia, Investor, MIPS, Shopify, Moody´s, Visa.
Valuations are elevated, and I believe this will curb the biggest price rises in the near future. This year, I will make a wish to Santa Claus that I get to buy Vaisala at a suitable price during the year. The company’s operations and development have pleasantly surprised me and at the same time ensured that I didn’t have time to build a sufficiently large position.
In the last portfolio review, I highlighted two companies. Medistim and Marimekko.
Medistim[quote="Tyhjatasku, post:4063, topic:1246"]
The company has invested in new products and grown its organization to support direct sales. This has been reflected in rising costs, but not yet in the bottom line. However, the market has shown small signs of recovery for higher-margin products, and the company’s newest device version is ready for sale. Certain efficiency measures have also been implemented. This was pleasing to notice last quarter. Am I sure about a turnaround now? Absolutely not, this could just be one slightly better quarter after many weakening ones. In any case, positive signals have been received as the EBIT% improved in Q4-24 vs Q4-23. So it is interesting to continue owning the company and let’s see if the improvement in profitability continues next quarter.
[/quote]Medistim reported an extremely strong Q1 result. In the conference call, the company even tempered investors’ expectations by noting that this was an exceptionally strong quarter and such results should not be expected on an ongoing basis. The company performed excellently in every area, which builds confidence that its products are high-quality and competitive.
I do have a slight concern that there might have been some pre-emptive demand in the medtech sector due to tariffs, given how strong the Q1 results were. However, companies in the sector broadly spoke about demand normalizing, so it will be interesting to see how Q2 results turn out.
Marimekko
Marimekko, on the other hand, fell short of my own expectations, but slightly beat market expectations. Marimekko’s earnings naturally fluctuate significantly depending on which quarter the larger wholesale deliveries fall into, which makes quarter-on-quarter comparisons difficult; therefore, it is more meaningful to look at the full-year results. However, I expected a stronger performance from Asia, given how actively new stores are being opened there. This needs to be monitored.
This time, I thought I would highlight a company called Dynavox.
Dynavox was spun off from a company called Tobii in 2022. For a brief period, it was listed on the stock exchange as Tobii Dynavox, but today it is simply Dynavox Group.
Dynavox enables communication for individuals who are unable to speak with their own voice or need assistance in doing so. The company is the market leader in its field and apparently the only one offering a comprehensive solution. The company sells both software and assistive devices for mobility, among other things. Its products are sold in 65 countries, and the company has 500 partners in both the public and private sectors.
The market in which the company operates is underserved. According to the company, only 2% of individuals who are diagnosed with communication difficulties each year receive the help they need. The company’s products are sold to the end-user through physicians, so one of the most important tasks is for the company to raise awareness among industry professionals. Its stock market history as an independent company has been a success so far.
There are reasons for this positive development: revenue has grown strongly, and profitability has as well.
Q1 revenue grew by as much as 36% and EBIT by 38%. Excluding one-off costs, the EBIT margin would have improved from 7.6% to 11.3% compared to the first quarter of the previous year. I expect EBIT to move toward the 15% level in the long term.
Such strong growth always raises concerns for me, and I am moderately skeptical that the market will receive the Q2 results with the same enthusiasm.
What fascinates me about this company is the large underserved market, strong growth, and apparently good products that are eligible for reimbursement in many markets. Perhaps the biggest question mark for me is how the market will attract competitors. In my opinion, the company does not have extremely strong competitive advantages; rather, the competitive factors are partnerships and the end-to-end solution.
The company believes that the networks they have built to secure customer financing constitute a competitive advantage. Since customers’ ability to purchase the company’s products and services is tied to subsidies, one must also note the risk that the company may find it difficult to raise prices. So far, however, the gross margin has been well protected and is rising towards 70%.
There has also been plenty of speculation around the company being bought out from the stock exchange. The high valuation is certainly an obstacle to this now.
Portfolio
I am still satisfied with the portfolio review. The companies I own are highly profitable and generate a strong return on invested capital. Valuation levels are high.
On the other hand, when considering valuation multiples, they should be weighed against growth. Sir Chris Hohn highlighted an excellent point about Moody’s in a recently published interview. Over the past hundred years, Moody’s has grown by an average of 10% per year, and its growth has always been underestimated. You can pay a higher price for such companies, but it is important to keep in mind that such companies are extremely rare, and growth can hit a brick wall. I am certain that many of my portfolio companies will have ceased to exist over the next hundred years, but unfortunately, I do not know which ones. As John Wanamaker famously said: “I know half my advertising budget is wasted; the trouble is I don´t know which half.” This applies to investing as well.
This anecdote leads to the fact that it is difficult for an investor to know which companies will turn out to be the best in the portfolio. I often realize that my small positions perform exceptionally well, while the large and, in my view, “sure” positions deliver mediocre returns. My own conclusion is that there are many things we, as investors, do not know and cannot control. Therefore, a certain degree of humility is good, and it is wise for me to hold about 25 companies in my portfolio. That way, I can also include companies that feel like good investments but would never fit into my portfolio if I had to choose only 5-10 companies. This increases optionality in the sense that I can only lose 100%, but one of the smaller positions could grow into a significant position.
The overall mood in the portfolio remains somewhat wait-and-see. Few companies worth owning look attractive to me right now. Investment ideas have been a bit scarce, and a couple of ideas slipped through my fingers… (Nexstim). It will be exciting to see how companies have coped with currencies when the Q2 results are published. Quite a few of the companies I own have significant sales in US dollars.{“content”:“There are 22 companies in the portfolio. Three slots are open, but with these multiples, it feels difficult to add new companies. Heading into the Q2 reports with these sentiments.\n\nHappy summer everyone! :)”}