The new year turned quite a while ago already, and I’ve had to battle my inner “personal trainer” just to churn out some kind of scribble on how the 13.5 months since my last portfolio update have gone. I’ve tried to stick to my dividend strategy, seasoned with swinging partial positions. That has actually been surprisingly easy: even though I’ve occasionally grit my teeth and sold very cheaply, pretty much without exception I’ve been able to buy the same shares back into the portfolio a little later even cheaper—the atmosphere has felt like Tokmanni’s bargain days 
I’ve tried to dodge falling knives, though not always with success. On the other hand, I’ve mostly picked knives where I believe there is upside once the cycle turns, meaning the FIFO principle works beautifully and the cheapest purchases remain in the portfolio. Naturally, my default stance is not to sell anything, but hopefully having learned from the crazy year of 2021, defining some sort of fundamental-detachment-exit-target-price (what a compound word, language police feel free to check the validity ) for the holdings is probably wise going forward. Running a 100% Finland portfolio here, with no real desire for geographic diversification, although someone might argue there’s a need for it . The percentage weights of the holdings reflect yesterday’s situation, 14.2.25. Once again, I’ll save the returns for the very end of the rhyme, so if someone manages to read that far, they’ll notice that the last three years have been quite a trek through the wilderness for me as well; returns have been hard to come by. My apologies in advance if some of my company-specific comments feel slapped together; I set myself a deadline to get this done so I could go enjoy the fresh outdoor air
TietoEvry 11.36%, the eternal crawler has stealthily (just yesterday) taken the top spot as the largest holding in my portfolio. We shouldn’t have to wait long now to get rid of the unprofitable and ill-fitting Tech Services business—that is, if the company itself is to be believed, the end of March should be the deadline. They tried to sell the Banking business too, but luckily market conditions were not favorable for a deal; in my opinion, it’s a real sweet spot, and I never understood why they tried to sell it in the first place. Constant adjustments and non-recurring items make evaluating the big picture tricky, but that’s why we have analysts—my own capacity isn’t enough for that. However, the dividend history speaks for itself; the trajectory has been upward, barring the difficult COVID year of 2020. Cash flow is being generated, and for an owner, that is what matters most.
Anora 10.92%, I call this a counter-cyclical stock among my circle of friends, referring mostly to my eight years of sobriety . These so-called sin stocks don’t get much attention from the financial media, nor has any celebrity investor admitted to owning it—except, rather unsurprisingly, Heikki Savolainen (Weststar Oy), who made his fortune in payday loans. Alcohol consumption is declining globally, which is of course a good thing. In my view, however, the decline in consumption doesn’t have the same slope as the downward slide of Anora’s share price. The failed Globus Wine acquisition carried out during Tennilä’s tenure has eaten into earnings and weakened competitive positioning; perhaps some sort of business insurance compensation will eventually come through. Still, the market prices the stock as if better times will never be in sight. At the latest, the end of the war in Ukraine will open the taps and consumer confidence will strengthen, leading to rising volumes for Anora’s products as well. Owning this requires nothing more than patience, which some investors simply do not possess. I don’t expect this to return to the €10 levels of yesteryear, and the IPO price of €7.60 will be an uphill battle, but if the board pulls off a successful CEO recruitment, the prerequisites for improvement are there. Price increases have been pushed through, and barley prices are no longer through the roof either; of course, this is a volume business after all.
Nordea 10.49%, This has been a joy to own during Frank Vang-Jensen’s tenure as CEO. The company has been trimmed into fantastic shape, and capital distribution to shareholders via dividends and share buybacks is flowing copiously. The best bank in the Nordics, and perhaps in all of Europe. Net interest income is naturally declining, but at the same time the economic cycle is potentially turning, and lending activities as well as investment returns are picking up. The share price won’t rise much anymore, of course, because suspicion towards the entire banking sector remains permanently elevated—and not without reason: the news coming out of the major eurozone countries hasn’t been particularly positive, and banks will definitely take a hit if Eurocrisis 2.0 materializes.
Tokmanni 9.93%, no longer even makes the podium in terms of position size, whereas it once accounted for up to 40% of my portfolio. I had to face reality and take matters into my own hands, realizing that my entire portfolio was bouncing around like a jack-in-the-box along with the discount retailer’s share price. What is inherently a defensive stock has in recent years been heavily at the mercy of the market, with the price swinging from manic heights to deep depression. One wonders if management’s communication could use improvement; after all, earnings have chugged along quite steadily in recent years, and dividends have been generous. I eagerly await Dollarstore being tuned to its full potential in Sweden (Denmark), and I’m keeping an eye on the first steps of the Spar partnership in Finland. Tokmanni’s revenue has ballooned like yeast dough in recent years, but profitability has not yet followed suit. I believe this is only a matter of time, however, and my own valuation suggests the stock’s value will be over €20 then. @Arttu_Heikura might still get a chance to outbid Petri Kajaani, say with a Buy at €27.10
Fortum 8.84%, as a hedge against the electricity bill and a generous state-owned dividend payer, this holds a self-evident place in my portfolio. After the traumatic Uniper and Russian adventures, we are once again sailing in calmer waters, merely watching electricity price futures—suits me fine . Massive data centers are making their way to Finland, and electricity consumption will increase before long. Could Fortum still get a chance to make an offer on the attractive Swedish hydro assets owned by Uniper? They would have the contractual right to do so, should those assets come up for sale at all!?
Lassila & Tikanoja 7.96%, my portfolio is full of stocks like this: strong domestic market exposure, and operations that don’t generate much buzz. Eero Hautaniemi & Band have now decided to spin off the real estate services business into its own company, presumably because it didn’t find a buyer. On the other hand, there’s no reason to sell for peanuts, though the Swedish facility management business in particular has certainly been a major headache—will it ever become profitable? Write-downs have already been made. My investment thesis remains intact, however; the whole company might eventually be bought out once the cycle improves. The dividend supports expected returns while waiting, and they have nicely returned to an upward dividend trajectory after cutting the oversized payout a few years ago. I’ve been waiting for a share buyback program here; I’ll have to remind the company about that again. I gladly own this and, for example, Anora, as they are covered by @Rauli_Juva ; that way, I can always pester him with more or less expert comments in the respective company threads. And no worries, if I don’t always have time to comment, there are other stubborn old-timers (+60) like me on the forum
Nokian Tyres 6.50%, sometimes makes me wonder whether I ventured onto too big of a playground, a bit like with Neste. Through swinging, swinging, and more swinging, I’ve managed to lower my average cost to under €7, so the margin of safety has at least increased somewhat. Then, of course, Morgan Kane’s evil stepbrother J.P. Morgan comes along and slashes the target price to €5.50 . Go figure; after the catastrophe in Russia, the company has nevertheless moved forward consistently, and production at the new Romanian factory is already ramping up. Subcontracting has ensured the product remains relevant in Central Europe at least. In the US, on the other hand, sales haven’t met expectations, so marketing investments need to be stepped up—and the factory will become invaluable thanks to the “crazy tariff man”. In the Nordics, Nokian has a solid position, but following hits to consumer purchasing power, the average motorist thinks twice about every euro and may temporarily settle for budget-tier tires.
Neste 5.57%, this falling knife is likely all too familiar to many forum members. I personally started buying around the €23 level; in hindsight, perhaps I should have listened to technical analysts. Then again, if you want to build a larger position, buying into declining prices is easier for me from a capital management standpoint. My allocation is usually 100% invested, meaning there is no actual cash reserve; something has to be sold or fresh capital added to the account if I want to go shopping. Besides, buying into rising prices over the past few years hasn’t been terribly rewarding—nor even possible for many stocks . Admittedly, this is heavily at the mercy of regulation, and given Trump’s rise to power, the future in the US doesn’t look rosy either with domestic markets shamelessly favored. Well, Neste does have production and feedstock sourcing there too, so some cash should clink into the coffers from the States going forward. Even if climate change mitigation efforts suffer temporary setbacks and blending mandates are scaled back, I believe that eventually the momentum and will for change will be too strong; a few fossilized politicians won’t be able to prevent it in the long run. An entirely separate question is whether Neste has lost some of its competitive advantage. Unscheduled plant shutdowns add their own flavor to the soup; one almost gets paranoid wondering if Putin’s henchmen could be behind them!? Extremely difficult to evaluate, and the same goes for analysts, whose forecasts are scattered all over the place. It’s always worth remembering that many sharp price drops stem from overly optimistic analyst projections. It’s wise to draw your own conclusions when a share price trades tens of percent below consensus; the market usually understands the situation better, at least with large-cap stocks. Neste is by no means a screaming buy even at these levels, not until we see signs of improvement. I liked the company’s own London financial statement presentation; perhaps cynical realism is entirely the right approach in this situation, leaving room for positive surprises.
NoHo 4.81%, is slowly starting to deliver on its promises after the freeze of the COVID years. They’ve finally gotten rid of Eezy, which was messing up results, and interesting moves have been made abroad. Aartio’s Pimu Capital has practically completed its exit, so its selling will no longer hold back the share price. NoHo’s AGM in Tampere remains one of my favorites, complete with a tasty breakfast spread and topped off with a restaurant gift card.
Consti 4.43%, has been in my portfolio for a long time, and the price hasn’t moved much over the past four years. Return on capital is excellent, the company is practically debt-free, and dividends are already very generous. I also have strong trust in current management, but tailwinds from the market are needed too; after all, this building market freeze—which has lasted longer than the 1990s depression—is not a good thing even for a defensive renovation contractor, as new-build contractors compete for the same projects.
Raisio 4.03%, a pleasure to own. I consume Raisio’s products daily, and healthy food products have a bright future ahead. Marketing investments in Europe must be increased; perhaps Tokmanni’s Spar partnership could provide opportunities here. The financial statements release noted a recovery in the UK Benecol business after a tough period. Here, too, improving consumer confidence and purchasing power growth will play into the company’s hands, given that the products carry a slight price premium.
Elisa 3.83%, a great holding to have in the portfolio. Some call it a bond proxy, but the 5G business rocks and I believe they will benefit from AI as well. A point of discontinuity is the fresh CEO following Mattila’s long era, and the Chairman of the Board is also stepping down this spring. There’s a lot of talk about M&A, but hopefully they remain prudent and look before they leap.
Enento 3.69%, an extremely interesting company once consumer confidence rebounds and people start applying for loans again. The moat is strong; entering this sector isn’t easy. Rising interest rates were unexpectedly potent poison for Enento, but a declining yield curve will support the share price again, and it seems the bottom is being tested right now. This one could also become a takeover target in the future; keeping an eye on the moves of major owners Otava and Mandatum will be interesting.
Oriola 2.15%, with its current dividend yield, the pharmaceutical distributor is a fairly safe pick for a dividend portfolio—assuming one believes the business can be whipped into better shape and no massive additional write-downs will hit the Swedish pharmacy joint venture. It truly is an unbelievable underperformer, but hope springs eternal
Remedy 1.85%, a lottery ticket. The fundamentals haven’t changed: the only pure-play game developer on the Helsinki exchange, and I have plenty of great experiences from Case Rovio. Tencent has cornered Remedy and other partnerships exist. I understand nothing about the gaming industry, and so far this investment has just been patronage of gaming art, but this too will (unfortunately) eventually be bought out as part of a larger entity. I don’t recall whether @Atte_Riikola 's current analysis includes a takeover option, but the market certainly disagrees with Atte’s €19 target price. If I recall correctly, Atte mentioned at some point that Remedy’s value could be anywhere between €15 and €40, but along the way that shifted to €6–€40; maybe my memory fails me, or perhaps reality has set in
Lindex 1.27%, currently at quite a small weight, as I want to monitor developments in peace. I can fairly easily buy back shares I sold higher if the mood strikes. The key question, of course, is whether they can divest the department store division on reasonable terms and focus entirely on Lindex’s highly international core business. Just yesterday, the owner of the Åhléns department store emerged as a prospective buyer; naturally, such news should be taken with a heavy grain of salt, as it could also be a well-calculated publicity stunt to stir up shareholders. The Konstsamfundet and Cloppenburg coalition will undoubtedly have a say as well. As I write this, it’s actually looking increasingly likely that a buyer will be found for the department stores, and a bidding war might even be possible. The cycle will turn eventually, and if peace truly returns to Ukraine, I believe it’s only a matter of time before travel restrictions are lifted and tourists arrive from the east. In any case, the restructuring program continues, but I strongly suspect something is happening behind the scenes.
Spinnova 1.19%, firmly in the lottery ticket section. Here we are eagerly awaiting Suzano’s potential investment decision on a larger-scale production facility; if that fails to materialize—meaning the product cannot be made cost-effective—good advice will be hard to come by. Still, this is a fine Finnish innovation and definitely an investment worth the risk. I haven’t burned my fingers too badly here either; despite being involved for years, my average cost is around €1.20, whereas the IPO price was €7.60.
Almost forgot the cash balance: a regal 1.18%. That illustrates reality quite well: I play this stock game on an all-in basis, trusting that there is always something to sell in the portfolio if an irresistible buying opportunity presents itself in a stock I want. I don’t have the nerves of steel required for leverage.
In 2024, I executed 661 trades (thankfully not 666), slightly fewer than the year before—perhaps age is catching up with me . I lost to the OMXHGI benchmark index by a couple of percentage points last year, around -2%. At worst, I think I was down -10% in November, largely thanks to Tokmanni’s extreme swings. The trailing 12-month return stands at +7.29%, 3-year return at +12.98%, and 5-year return at +89.21%, so I’m by no means throwing in the towel, even if last year was particularly tough. Spring dividends are simply far too tempting for me to even consider switching to index investing. As a silver lining on the cloud, 24.2 is approaching—marking the three-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; I suspect that for many, the three-year return figures will shift considerably in a positive direction.
Interest rates continue their descent in Europe toward the magical two percent mark, which will bode well for consumer purchasing power. My worst fear in my portfolio report just over a year ago was Trump being elected president, and that came to pass. I do my best to filter out everything that spews from his mouth, letting it go in one ear and out the other. I am worried about US democracy; this Trump-Vance-Musk axis will certainly be quite a test for it. A narcissist and a (convicted) felon can certainly get a lot done in four years; the chickens will come home to roost when it’s time for the tariff man to step down four years from now.
As for geopolitics, there will in all likelihood be at least a ceasefire in Ukraine this year. I wait with concern to see on what terms, although peace is obviously the goal to strive for. Reconstruction will provide a boost to the European economy, and consumer confidence will also improve with potential peace. The situation in the Middle East remains explosive—well, it has been since long before I was born. China’s intentions regarding Taiwan have received little attention lately; hopefully that won’t become the world’s next flashpoint. All in all, even with the looming threats, I expect this to be a better investment year than its predecessors. Wishing all forum members a great continuation of the investing year
