Now that last year’s tax return has arrived and been checked, it’s time for another portfolio review. The previous one was on 02.12.2023, and so this is the portfolio review as of 12.04.2023 with portfolio values.
AOT (Book-entry account) at Nordnet (12.04.2023):

OST (Equity savings account) at Nordnet (12.04.2023):

Dividends at Nordnet (12.04.2023):

New at the top is Nordnet’s dividend view, which works really well nowadays. At least in my own portfolio, I’ve reviewed it and it seems to be completely accurate now, even regarding history. Previously there were problems with foreign dividends, but apparently not anymore.
Transactions and views since the beginning of the year:
The portfolio has continued to perform slightly better than the benchmark index OMXHGI, although the performance of the Helsinki exchange (Hesuli) has been so miserable that this isn’t much of a merit. OST YTD return is +4.15% and AOT +1.66%. Some dividends are still unpaid even though they have already gone ex-dividend, so I suppose all dividends aren’t showing in the returns yet.
Even though I am mostly a member of the “dividend party” with a buy-and-hold strategy, I’ve made a surprising amount of buys and sells during the early part of the year, partly because I’ve been cleaning out crap positions and other unnecessary positions and reinvesting them. I believe the rest of the year will be much more serene in terms of activity. Below are the most important portfolio events since the beginning of the year:
Buys:
- Fortum OST
- UPM OST
- Neste OST
- Terveystalo OST
- TietoEvry OST
- Orion B OST
- Citycon OST
- Pfizer AOT
- Evli Likvidi B AOT
- iShares $ Treasury Bond 20+yr UCITS ETF AOT
Sells:
- Intrum
- Cargotec
- Mandatum
- Harvia
- Konecranes
- Bayer
- Siemens
- BASF
Short-term swing trades:
- Noho
- Nokian Renkaat
- Volkswagen
So, the portfolio contained the infamous Intrum, which I decided to get rid of about a month ago because my faith and trust in the management ran out. I’ve justified these sales on the Intrum channel, so no more on that. The final loss from Intrum was approx. -19,000 EUR, but including dividends received over the years, “only” about -16,000 EUR—roughly the same class of loss I once took from Lehto. I covered the losses by selling some overvalued stocks (e.g., Harvia) and some engineering companies (Cargotec, which is likely to demerge) and small positions (Mandatum, Siemens). Additionally, I got rid of a couple of underperforming German stocks where I also lost faith, such as BASF and Bayer—at least the German tax bear won’t be able to wrongly pinch too much in excess withheld taxes from their dividends anymore.
To learn something from Intrum, I updated my investment plan, for example, regarding looking more closely at company indebtedness (e.g., Net Debt-to-EBITDA Ratio) and updated my rules on how many times I can buy and with what amount into falling prices. I also went through the debt levels and credit ratings of all the stocks in my portfolio. However, I don’t believe it’s possible to completely avoid these “bombs” in the future, as I thought Intrum’s business was otherwise quite okay, so I might still fall into the same trap even with my current investment plan—but at least I minimize the impact so that the loss is not so significant for the portfolio as a whole. This is just part of investing; sometimes these blunders happen.
The new buys were mainly good dividend payers for the OST (Equity savings account) now that the OST deposit limit rose from 50k → 100k at the turn of the year. There is still 15k of room to deposit more money into the OST. Additionally, I increased my fixed-income positions slightly by buying Evli Likvidi B and a bit of longer-term interest rate exposure with iShares $ Treasury Bond 20+yr UCITS ETF. I also bought Pfizer back into the portfolio, even though I think I swore in the previous post that I wouldn’t buy it anymore. But the price has come down so much that it started to become too tempting. Furthermore, I don’t believe Pfizer will get into trouble over its COVID vaccines; instead, all possible problems will be swept under the rug, and they are quite well protected from all accusations by the contracts made during the COVID era. I like pharma companies in the portfolio because even though they are criticized as money-hungry due to high drug prices, they do valuable work for humanity in the long run and the profits scale well. Additionally, investing in pharma companies is truly a game for the patient, as developing new drugs takes years.
I have now shoveled almost all cash into either stocks or fixed income; there are still some dividends on the Nordnet account that haven’t been invested yet. I liquidated Seligson’s money market fund entirely and transferred money from there to Evli Likvidi B and 20,000 EUR to a Bank Norwegian Savings Account Plus. Since the beginning of the year, there have been sales worth approx. 128,000 EUR and buys worth 168,000 EUR, meaning I’ve put about 40,000 EUR of new money into the portfolio, though some of this is dividends. The high turnover is mainly due to selling Intrum and other crap positions and covering those losses, as well as reinvesting the sales proceeds.
Some short swing trades were also made. I bought Noho but decided to sell when the CEO changed. Nokian Renkaat and VW were slightly shorter trades where I took home some small quick profits.
The combined market value of my stock portfolios (AOT + OST) has now stayed slightly above the 800,000 EUR mark, being 803,420 EUR today, though it must be noted that I now include the fixed-income funds at Nordnet, which now amount to just over 172,000 EUR. About 21% of the portfolio value is now in fixed income, which sounds very sensible to me at the moment. I aim to keep this around the 10-20% range as long as one can get a reasonable return from fixed income. However, I will likely not buy more fixed income anymore.
Fixed income is now roughly:
- 20k cash in Bank Norwegian Savings Account Plus at 3.75% interest
- 108k in short-term fixed income Evli Likvidi B, approx. 4.8% YTM
- 44k in semi-long fixed income Eur Corporate Bond, approx. 3.7% YTM + positive leverage if interest rates fall
- 19k in very long-term fixed income iShares $ Treasury Bond 20+yr, approx. 4.7% YTM + large positive leverage if interest rates fall - currency risk USD/EUR
Instead of the portfolio’s price development, I follow the development of dividends with greater interest, as I can influence that more than the price curve by buying more companies that pay growing dividends. Dividend flow for this year should be approx. 32,867 EUR gross (26,200 EUR net) with relatively certain forecasts. A positive thing in 2024 will also be that interest income will increase passive income considerably: passive income from dividends + interest will almost certainly be slightly over 40,000 EUR gross in 2024. The next goal could be, for example, to get dividend income over 30,000 EUR net, which could perhaps be achieved in a couple of years.
What will I do for the rest of the year then? Likely at least much fewer trades. The plan is to only sell Kamux if it rises a bit and I can break even. Otherwise, I will likely buy some of these for the OST if I can get them at a suitable price so that the 100k limit is reached: UPM, Neste, Terveystalo, Orion, and Fortum. KONE and Kemira would also be interesting, but they are still a bit too expensive. Otherwise, I’m waiting for a slow decline in interest rates and hope that, for example, Citycon’s share price would pick up a bit and the drop in rates would boost the returns on longer-term fixed income. If some big crash comes, I’ll start slowly liquidating Evli Likvidi B and move money from there into stocks and maybe some index ETFs.
Below is the traditional development of the portfolio, dividends, and interest income from the start:
Development of the portfolio’s market value:
01.03.2011: 0 e
01.04.2011: 21 000 e
01.12.2011: 40 000 e
01.01.2012: 50 000 e
01.12.2012: 74 000 e
01.04.2014: 100 000 e
01.12.2014: 140 000 e
01.11.2015: 174 000 e
01.08.2016: 211 000 e
01.12.2016: 256 000 e
01.12.2017: 308 000 e
01.12.2018: 330 000 e
23.03.2019: 355 833 e
28.11.2020: 503 148 e
01.01.2021: 502 015 e
02.07.2021: 601 904 e
31.12.2021: 609 729 e
04.06.2022: 596 525 e
31.12.2022: 593 880 e
04.08.2023: 627 523 e
02.12.2023: 731 735 e
12.04.2024: 803 420 eGross dividend development:
2011: 1,370 e
2012: 3,170 e
2013: 3,770 e
2014: 4,270 e
2015: 6,450 e
2016: 9,320 e
2017: 11,260 e
2018: 13,920 e
2019: 17,150 e
2020: 17,600 e
2021: 22,650 e
2022: 27,740 e
2023: 31,477 e
2024: 32,867 e (forecast)
Gross interest income development:
2011: 434 e
2012: 149 e
2013: 161 e
2014: 0 e
2015: 0 e
2016: 0 e
2017: 732 e
2018: 773 e
2019: 402 e
2020: 461 e
2021: 553 e
2022: 832 e
2023: 4,725 e
2024: 7,000 - 9,000 e (forecast)