Tyhjensin REEs/kriittiset metallit salkkuni syksyllä nousun oltua ennakoitua rivakampi. Olen nyt kasaillut salkkua uudelleen muutamaan vankkaan perusprinsiippiin nojaten:
A strong hunch about the coming strongest supercycle of commodities and energy in world history.
Geopolitics is in such a position that old supply chains are going/have already partially gone to pieces. The West is struggling to break free from China dependence → The liquidity spigot to be launched in 2026 will raise the strategic value and pricing of Western production (i.e., everyone else except China and China’s friends). China has so far kept the buttons and the chessboard to itself by suppressing prices at opportune moments, making Western investments unprofitable. Now the West wants to be self-sufficient at any cost. Geopolitics has become the primary price setter for raw materials.
The scepter of world domination is slipping from the hands of West-Russia. If we now fall behind in building AI infrastructure and defense technology, and fail to establish broad energy self-sufficiency, China will soon be king of the hill. Next year, the ‘big red button’ will be taped down one more time - CTRL+P. There is no other option. Fiat is fleeing from inflation caused by unprecedented ultra-loose monetary policy into hard assets.
Allocation Plan
A large part of the positions has already been bought into the portfolio, about a fifth still requires a better moment/maturation. Purchases primarily always in a currency other than USD.
AOT:
- Global X Copper Miners ETF USD Acc, 6%
- VanEck S&P Global Mining ETF, 6%
- Global X Silver Miners ETF USD Acc, 6%
- iShares Oil&Gas Exp. & Prod. ETF USD 6%
- $EQR, tungsten 16%
- $URZ3, uranium 4%
OST:
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$PNG.v, defense industry 6%
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$CODA, defense industry 3%
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$AMPX, defense industry 5% ( UAV batteries)
(Underwater skirmishes and cooler drones vs. China’s mass production) -
$LAC, $ALB, $ATLX, $SGML, $GLN, lithium total ~10%
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$UCU, $NB, $MKA, $CTH, $USAR, REEs total ~10%
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$BOL, broad metals sector 2%
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$TECK, copper & zinc 4%
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$VTLE, oil 2%
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$CRK, natural gas 2%
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$PATH, AI 12%
ETF overlaps taken into account - copper exposure of 10% could perhaps be slightly trimmed, oil & natural gas could be increased a notch. PGM only about 0.5% - should probably add with ‘bottle money’.
What do others think? Is something missing, is there too much of something? Is there a kink in the thinking in the big picture? The $EQR position is annoying because I now wake up ‘to go to the bathroom’ roughly when the Aussie stock exchange opens. $PATH also with a significant weight. However, these are not meant to be lightened until after the ‘bagger’ announcements in church. 